We will likely see an exodus from ETH due to risk aversion and that refuge BTC will flow into FCT. M2 release, post M2 news and in a month we will likely see ETH/FCT parity around .01 area.
Nah, I do like Factom and the idea behind it but Ether s still and will remain number one. As you can it has started recovering and it will get back even stronger then before. Factom still needs to show what it can do in the future.
It's true what you say, that "Factom still needs to show what it can do in the future". It's not finished yet. But what they build and what they will offer is something like a logical next step in the blockchain-industry. It's kind of simple in comparison to some other projects.
And what you say is even more true for Ethereum. If you subtract all hype around it, if you subtract the "vitalik-myth" of a genius wonder-boy we see a very ambitious project with the goal to develop smart contracts on the blockchain. Does that work so far? Yes, but in a way that an attacker can turn a smart contract against itself, against it's original purpose. I'm not a coder and the majority of Investors and Speculators are not. But all signs I see point on: Ethereum has a lot of problems to solve and some plans are a very high risk (I consider Casper as a high risk for example, in short- and longterm). I don't know how much Ethereum should be used to justify a marketcap above 1 billion. I'm not even sure if a marketcap above 100 Mio would be justified. It's hype in my eyes.
But, I don't say Ethereum is a bad project. It's a very good project and it has value for the whole Crypto-world. But maybe more like the first touch-screens in the 80's or some other early innovations that really reached the market 10 or 20 years later. Quiet often it wasn't the original Developers and companies who realized the high ambitions. And that could also turn out to be Ethereums destin - that others will learn a lot from Ethereum and other projects in the smart-contract-area while Ethereum could simply die over time. It's maybe too early to make a real business out of smart contracts.
Factom: Like I've said... it's the logical next step. It's not that complex like Ethereum. It is a business-model that already would be successful if there would be providers. That's just one reason why Factom could benefit from the first-mover-advantage while Ethereum maybe more builds the ground for others to do it better.
And: Factoms marketcap is at $ 11 Mio. Ethereum is at $ 1 bn. That's kind of a huge spread if we think about the above. And while I exactly know what it needs to justify Factoms marketcap and while there is near to zero hype in Factom, I have no idea why Ethereum should be that high-priced (still, after the drop) and I would recommend everybody to think always(!) this way and not the other way around, to believe something must have "this" value because so many others are willing to pay so much and after they've bought into it they are convinced that lower prices are "cheap" and that others are stupid to sell etc. They really believe it - but without really knowing why.
I'm really not that idealistic that I would say it's stupid to buy something because of a hype. I did that, too (LISK). But I believe it's not smart to be invested when things become clearer and the hype is about to expire. That is what happens now with Ethereum. In Factom there never was such a hype and if there should ever be really a hype it will be based on real success. The prices will also overdrive and form a bubble and the bubble will burst right after like they always do, but the price will have a real base because of real use. Ethereums price-base is unknown. Not sure if it would be undervalued if it would be just at $ 30 Mio for example. In my opinion it's a "computer-science-project", like a laboratory. I have some doubts that it will lead to a viable business while I have zero doubts that Ethereum will have huge competitors in future.
I'm still the same opinion like many months ago that Factom doesn't get the attention it deserves from the Crypto-Community and Investors. But that's not a weakness but the opposite. Factom doesn't even need it. Ethereum on the other hand will most likely break with some "Blockchain-rules" and risk it's credibility to bail out DAO-Investors. And why? Because the biggest Investors are from the team. Most likely they will make decisions against the system out of economical reasons - before there is really another business-model for the system than betting on exchanges.
