Reward change target is one week. This is 2880 x 7 = 20160
First week.
500 000 x 20160 = 10.08B
second week
10.08/2 = 5.04B
3rd 2,52B. Actually its less than 2.52B from here, because PoS blocks start to appear in block chain from day 20.
4th less than 1,26B
5th less than 0.63B
OK. Lets compound. 10.08 + 5.04 + <2.52 + <1.26 + <0.63 = Less than 19,53B. Probably only around 18B is close to quess.
This is only 70B/18B * 100 = 25.7% of total coins. This means that almost 3/4 of total coins will be generated through PoS blocks.
Lets quess the estimates of PoS now.
Assuming that 18B will be generated through PoW. the PoS interests will be as follows:
18B *20% = 3.6B. Total coins of 21.6B after year 1.
21.6B *15% = 3.24B. Total coins of 24.84 after year 2.
24.84B*10% = 2.48B. Total coins of 27.32B after year 3.
OK. You see where this is going. This coin will not reach 70B coins any time soon.
If this coin gains popularity and gets some demand, then price of 200 + satoshis is very probable.
Please keep in mind that simple math done above is just rought estimates and not exact numbers.
Hopefully this post helped to generate point of view about this coin progress.
This implies that the premine is actually 19,4% after one year, which is obscene. This will undermine the coins chance to succeed. Let's all together put pressure on the dev to make public all the spent premine coins. Or even better: let him destroy the premine.
Please correct this wrong figure, it's no where near 20%. That would imply only 3.5 billion coins exist after 1 year which is false from what you quoted.
700,000,000 / 18,000,000,000 is not 0.194... it's 0.03888 ~ 3.89%
This means the premine is basically 3.89%. Admittedly this is still quite a lot higher than what a lot of people probably thought.
It's made worse by the fact that it will generate PoS too, meaning it will ALWAYS be 3.89% as long as the dev doesn't spend it or move it (to decrease coinage). If they don't move it / spend it, it'll likely increase (in %age terms) as other move their MINT around destroying coinage.
I do agree that the dev team should be more public about where the premine is being spent and used though
This is a huge impact on the potential of this coin. Having a 'wolong' ready to drop the price at a moments notice will not help the coin succeed. Dev please become transparent by posting the premine wallet address so the community can monitor. Also please post your full intentions with the coins. If you feel you deserve to be paid for being the dev, please hash that out with the community.
I'm fine if devs keep a small amount of premine to themselves for work they put in. But this coin could actually have value if they give away half of their premine in faucets and giveaways to attract attention