In the UK a lotto ticket is £2, if you play lotto every week that's £104 per year (if you only buy one line of numbers per week). A Dice is £108 per year and i'd much rather win a bitcoin block than the lotto.
I also solo with other inefficient miners (currently a BFL Single and a Block Erupter Cube) and in the winter the extra heat is welcome.
i don't bother doing the maths of it all as long as I know what it'll cost per month to run and I am happy to pay that - it's cheaper than the oil radiator that i've used in past years and it may, or may not find that block, which would be a bonus.
How does it compare to the UK National Lottery odds?
Category Prizes Chances Prize (Aprox)
Jackpot 1 1 in 13,983,816 £3-5,000,000
5+bonus 6 1 in 2,330,636 £50,000
5-match 252 1 in 55,491.33 £1,500
4-match 13,545 1 in 1,032.40 £100
3-match 246,820 1 in 56.66 £25
if i won the lotto, i'd buy bitcoin with it anyway, so i may as well just mine bitcoin solo.
please don't ask me to do sums, it makes my head hurt.
Ooh! Math(s) is fun, though!
You buy lotto ticket each week for a year. £2/week * 52 weeks = £104.
At odds of 1:56.66, there's a reasonably good chance ( 1/56.66 * 52 * 100% = 91.78% ) you'll at least get one of the 3-match £25 prizes at some point, and be out £79.
The odds for the Dice are claimed to be 150/300,000,000, which isn't too far off, so let's run with that, and simplify it to there being a 1:2,000,000 chance that you would solve a block and get
BTC25, currently worth about
BTC25 * £240/
BTC = £6,000 . Rather unlikely, and you're out the £108.
Just on the face of it, 1:56.66 / 1:2,000,000 ~= 35,300 times a better deal to play the lotto to win
something.
On the other hand, that
something is much greater for the Bitcoin lottery, and factoring that into the odds by plugging one into the other (£6,000 / £25 = 240), multiplying with the odds (1:2,000,000 * 240 = 1:8,3333), and then dividing (1:56.66 / 1:8,333), you'd find that playing the lotto is 'only' 147 times a better deal than playing the Bitcoin lottery with a Dice to win
something.
But that's messing with numbers that shouldn't be messed with as it's not a direct comparison. Let's instead compare that to the closest equivalent for the lotto - getting a 5-match four times (for prize money of £6,000);
Winning it once: 1:55,491.33
Winning it four times: 1:221,965.32
1:221,965.32 / 1:2,000,000 ~= 9 times better to play the lotto if the goal is to win £6,000.
Alternatively, a close match
in odds is the 5+bonus prize of £50,000 with 1:2,330,636 odds.
Playing the Bitcoin lottery is a mere 1:2,000,000 / 1:2,330,636 ~= 1.165 times a better deal to win
something, but in the lotto that particular something is a great deal more money.
The above is hugely simplified - proper statistics makes
my head hurt, and I don't know the peculiars of the UK lotto in question - but overall: you'd be better off playing the lotto.
But, really, who plays lotteries based on rational thought? Maybe you get lucky and you solve a block 10 seconds after plugging it in, and the lotto player doesn't get a single prize after all. Or maybe they win the jackpot twice and you never solve a block. Though if you are going to play the Bitcoin lottery, knowing the odds are not in your favor, you might as well do so with an old Block Erupter - unless you're getting additional benefit from the hardware such as heating