Can anyone share the math for figuring mining rewards for a given hashrate? I worked something out earlier and I think my numbers are coming out wrong.
I used the formula for BTC (B=(h*r*t*)/(2^32*D)) (which I suspect may be the issue) to figure the est. earnings per block for the last 14 days, then took that and averaged it out to come up with a "long term" estimate. Exact math as follows, using block 1592129 as an example:
dif. = 0.0102
reward = 0.11453505
time = 86400 (1 day in seconds)
hash = 100,000 (100kh in hash)
0.11453505/(2^32*0.0102) = 0.000000002614438178 (this is done for every block, independent of hashrate/time so the calculator works with different values)
0.000000002614438178*(100*1000)*86400 (values for hash and time can be changed to suit other needs, hour/day/week, etc. and for hashrates other than 100)
The basic break down is that the first part is done for every block, then this number is averaged for every block. Then, the other aspect that remains constant (hashrate) and the duration (time) are calculated after. Shouldn't matter that these come after because order of operations, if I'm not mistaken.
For the last 2 weeks, all 19195 blocks, the first part average is 0.000000001290530053. When appropriate values are added for time (in this case one day, 86400 seconds) and hashrate (in this case 100kh, 100000h), the "average" earning per day would be around 15.61 XMG a day, which seems far too high, especially given my mining and observations. Which leads me to believe there is a problem with my methods.
Is this just a case of "I have the wrong formula"? Have I accidentally done something wrong with my math? Could this have to do with pool mining vs. solo? Have I missed the point? Is XMG really this awesome and I've just been mining wrong?
Bear in mind, this isn't supposed to be a calculator for the future, rather a good, long term example that can be used as an estimate for the future. If over the period of the last week a consistent 100kh/s will net 15 XMG, then I feel safe assuming that earnings for the next week would be around 15, with what level of variance I'm not sure, but it's a start and to me much more applicable than the "current block estimate" calculator in the wallet. That said, is there any reason why this WOULDN'T work, even in the slightest, due to something I've missed in XMG's POW II system?
If someone smarter than me wants to help me out that would be great!
There is a reason I'm not a math major, after all.
If someone wants to comment on if this applicable/waste of time, useful or just interesting data, that too would be well appreciated! After all, there is probably something really dumb that I'm missing.
Last note, all data was taken from
https://chainz.cryptoid.info/xmg/I dont think you can forecast XMG with any type of accuracy do to the way it is designed. The more hashrate is thrown at the blockchain then the less XMG that will come out of the current block. Over the last week we've had 45+ XMG block payouts and we've had <1 XMG payouts. Since people mining XMG wont maintain speed limits to maximize coins from a block, your calculation would need to involve some kind of average range, since a single average is pretty much impossible to calculate.
