Holy shit on the Euro.
I am traveling (on an extended stay in Europe) and I started to feel like I was feeling in Argentina / Brazil as they respective currencies were plummeting...
I was in Argentina during the crash. Scary stuff. Overnight, the banks closed the doors because the government seized all cash.
The rich were fine because their money was abroad.
The poor were fine because they had nothing anyway
The middle classes lost everything. "Sorry Sir, you can't have your savings because there is no money". Within a matter of days, previously comfortable families were struggling to feed themselves.
Its not funny, but that made me laugh anyway.
I'm thinking of a gamble on a Euro<>GBP leveraged fx trade when the Euro hits 1.65 or 1.7 if it looks like it will go that way. There is even an outside chance it will go to 1:2.
Why?
ECB QE will keep pushing the Euro down. Money will leave the Euro and head for USD and then later GBP as interest rates begin to rise. The Greeks will create a storm of uncertainty, pushing the Euro down some more.
QE will eventually push up inflation in Euro land. The dramatic differences in Euro USD will lead to higher Euro exports and more people going on holiday in Euro areas creating inward investment (the sun still shines, the wine still flows).
The Euro will eventually turn and the Euroland interest rates will start to become a realistic prospect. That's where the leveraged play should pay-off. Well, in theory. Might lose £20k, or gain £200k. Worth the risk?
