Topic: ANTMINER S3+ Discussion and Support Thread - page 129. (Read 710164 times)

But the difficulty does change, so your .49 in 3 months is incorrect. Also, given the difficulty changes that you yourself post above, they cover about 1.7 months, and represent a monthly difficulty increase of 22.26%, which is the lowest it has been since January 2013. Granted, it's lower than my 26% calculation, but not much. Don't mistake 14-day block increases with monthly increases, they're different.

But let's play the ROI game your way. Obviously 3c per kWh is low, and 10c is a bit high, what would you consider to be a power cost that isn't outrageous? 8 cents?

I'm using https://tradeblock.com/mining/ to make sure I don't make any math mistakes, multipool or coinwarz are okay too, but you have to factor in bi-weekly reductions in revenue, or you're not going to get an honest picture of what your costs are.

if you go off real figures from multipool.us

it'll mine .49 in three months without any diff change

dunno where you're getting those diff figures from. here is the last 5 or so diff changes

Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s

estimated next diff is about 5%

server psu is ~$10

you can and will ROI with these machines if your power isn't outrageous, it'll just take too long to make it worth while. over 3 months counting electricity is not a good deal.

id pay $130 for a s3 right now and take roi in 1.5months ish which still really isn't a good deal...

Yes, I do. If you didn't have to pay for a PSU, or for power, and just look at what an S3+ at 453 GH/s is capable of mining raw, it will mine about 0.50 BTC in 120 days, so if it cost 0.5 BTC the earliest it could break-even is February. Over the next 8 months, it's only going to mine an additional 0.28 BTC.

If you figure you're paying $0.03 USD per kWh, it now takes you 220 days to break-even with a net profit of 0.01 BTC after those 220 days, for your 0.50 BTC investment, and at 3c per kWh, you start losing money keeping the S3+ operating in July of 2015 (unless the BTC to USD exchange rate goes sky high that is).

However chances are good that most of us are paying slightly higher than 3 cents per kWh.
And chances are good that you'll have to pay more than 0.5 BTC for your miner to be shipped.
And chances are good that choosing not to include the PSU is a bad plan unless it was paid for in BTC by a previous miner.
And this month's growth rate has been really small at 26%, chances are good that it'll grow at a higher rate over the next 220 days rather than a slower rate.

So yeah, I'd say 0.5 BTC is pushing it. Sure, maybe you'll see a gross return of 0.78 BTC over its lifetime, but you're spending $9.72/month to keep that miner lit up. So then you have to do some profit calculations. If you're intent on running it for the full 9 months, you just spent $87.48 on power for that 0.78 BTC. For every month after that you will still be spending $9.72 USD to keep it running, even though you'll only be earning 0.01 BTC or less.

And remember, this is at 3 cents per kWh. If you're like the majority of America (and possibly Europe), your power bill is closer to 10c/kWh. At 10 cents, you're paying $32.40/month to keep it hashing. So, keeping the scenario real, to run an S3+ for the next 9 months you're looking at:

-$239.76 - 0.592 BTC for the S3 today
-$291.60 - for the power
-$160.00 - for the PSU (skip this if you feel justified)
-----------
$691.36 spent over the course of 9 months, for a total earnings of 0.78 BTC.
This puts your cost-basis at $886.35/BTC for the rig.

Sure, Bitcoin will probably go back above $1,000, and leave you with a decent cost basis for your Bitcoin, and yes it is fun (I have many S3s here, and Prismas, and other miners), and yes it'll heat your house this winter.

But if you'd taken your initial outlay today and bought BTC with it, even after this dramatic rise, you would have about 1.70 BTC. You would have it -today-, you would not be exposed to the risk of the PSU dying and needing to be replaced, or a fan, or losing hashrate due to overheating next summer, or any other weird anomaly that we can't account for in the next 9 months. It'd be here today, and if BTC goes to $10,000 this December, you could sell it then, and not be stuck with an illiquid miner. And if it drops back down to $800 the next sprint, you could buy back more.

I'm not saying mining isn't great, I'm saying that we need to be realistic about our expectations regarding it.

you actually believe that?

3 month + ROI without electricity

Awesome! It's about time. Sadly, the price is still higher than Batch #8 was (0.58 BTC), and Batch #8 was going to barely break even, but it's definitely a step in the right direction! At a quantity of 8 the price right now ends up being about 0.593 BTC. However, now that it's denominated in USD, when the price goes above $432 again, it will be cheaper than Batch #8 was!

Of course, you still have to keep in mind what sort of ROI you expect. I'm not sure exactly how much BTC a 453 GH/s rig will mine over its lifetime, but I think 0.5 is definitely pushing the highest possible scenarios.

Our ten Prismas arrived this week, arriving a month after they were supposed to, with 3 damaged out of the 10, and zero communication from ASICMiner. So there is that too. Just frustrating to be a miner these days. New ASICs are expensive to manufacture, and they have such a brief "shelf life" it's difficult to justify doing a run of a marginally improved design because by the time it hits the market, it has about 4 months to earn back your NRE and to turn a profit, before you (or your competitors) will have to churn out more efficient designs because the previous ones are no-longer energy efficient enough to justify operating. It's definitely an arms race. One which at least 51% of the participants will lose.

Anyway, I've had great luck with every Antminer product I've purchased, have had very few failures, and you always aggressively reduce the price of your gear when you can. I have no real complaints against you, other than the fact that hobbyist miners can no longer expect a profit off any consumer-grade mining hardware. But I understand that isn't Bitmain's (or ASICMiner's) fault. It's just the nature of hardware design and Bitcoin difficulty increases (and price volatility).

I hope you guys succeed and that Antpool works out for you! Just continue to keep us little guys in mind as you develop new concepts and hardware!

Agree but glad I snagged them

that person is throwing money out of the window with bitmain charging ~$280 (w/shipping to US)
Actually, charging fixed $$ rate with bitcoin rising rapidly is a bad idea for a seller anyway.
I am just going to hold to my S3 and, perhaps, they will still be worth ~$250-300 in a month or two.

I just bought 2 S3's from private party here in the US. Paid .82 for both shipped to me. He has 7 more to sell if anybody is interested. He is taking BTC for payment at $175 each. Trustworthy person who I have bought off before. I like buying off Bitmain but the price with shipping makes it hard to justify unless BTC keeps going up.

I do not have any complaints, just plain dissatisfaction with the shipping cost. It seems to be a lottery as to which country is serviced better by whatever courier, however, my experience is based on using both companies to ship units from bitmain (of-course that was before shipping charges were introduced!).

DHL took exactly 3 days to deliver from order confirmation, kept me abreast of shipment progress and gave me the option to pay my taxes & fees online at the earliest opportunity, which I did ofcourse.

On the other hand UPS took 7 working days (serious, that is NOT including the weekend) to deliver, and though I kept abreast of shipment progress via their tracking, I had to do it rather than them sending me updates. And when it came to delivery, they never offered a means to pay my taxes online / before delivery, and the guy practically refused to hand over the package until their invoice was paid. I was not at home so my neighbour (who usually helps with receiving parcels) had a dilema of sorts. Long story that, but the experience left its mark.

My only complaint was that one was misrouted (left on Airplane) and flew 14,000 miles further than it should have. One was delivered in two days and the other one took six days and lots of extra handling and jostling around in the airplane. In Thailand I was only charged 7% VAT on the declared value plus a 200 baht UPS disbursement fee plus vat on the fee. Had to pay the duties for both units when the first one was delivered and second one was delivered with no additional charge. Here in Thailand DHL is the bad company. They tend to charge a high additional customs brokerage fee. With UPS the fee is already included in the shipping charges for air packages.

But UPS will take 7 days to deliver, and charge exhorbitant fees on top of the tax to boot! Give me the UPS rate for DHL and I'll order today.

If you get a quote directly from UPS for shipping the rate is three times what Bitmain is charging. They are giving you the advantage of their corporate bulk rates. Each unit weighs 5.5Kg and express air shipping is expensive.

Shipping still too high!

recently i paid £162 (~$255) for my most recent one from ebay and had no customs charges and no postage to pay.
 

Bought two ten days ago and paid lower price. 

 Price for S3+ B11 is $210 per unit now

I use to have that problem with my previous router (Linksys E1200) it kept on dropping connections for some devices where as others worked fine, I recently replaced with it a Linksys EA3500, and it works much better now no problems at all.

If you have to reboot the router from time to time it means it can't handle the bandwidth load/number of devices running on it, I would consider upgrading it.

All is well that ends well ...... (or something like that  )

Ok guys, got the miner working.  I double checked all my settings then saved and rebooted several times.  It still would not start hashing even though I could access the web UI just fine.  I was about to give up then I decided to reboot my router and the darn thing started working again.  I have several other miners working on the same router just fine but for some reason a reboot of the router was all it took for this particular miner to start hashing.  Wierd!!!  Thanks for all your help.