Topic: Anyone else think "long term" hodlers are idiots? (Read 27268 times)

I resemble the remarks above but then again been in HODL mode (mostly) since 2013.
The current catch is with the Pandemic and IMHO, the crummy way Trump and the Senate are managing the USA, I currently look at BTC/Crypto as a 'hedge'.
If the current powers that be have or can exert control and destroy decentralized crypto-currency like BTC and privatize the blockchain process completely.
Well, I am retired on 'traditional stocks', etc.  So no great risk. Living off the 4% interest and 65 years old so 60% bonds/etc suited to people old as dirt as myself.

If on the other hand, now with Trump in office and the Pandemic and other black swan events in the play, we have what 7 trillion dollars of printed out of air money
now in the USA with pandemic and tax cuts from the last few years? Well, then when the Pandemic goes away (whenever) then IMHO we will have to not only pay
as a society for probably the 'needed' 7 Trillion to survive this and recover in the USA, I feel it very, very likely some hard questions will be asked about other things.
Gonna be a 'lot' more clarity on the 2.5 trillion of the above that did not 'trickle' down and help society before or after this Pandemic. Schools/Roads/Bridges/etc and
infrastructure, in general, will also be past the pale to ignore. Add to the fact that after this pandemic, will be MORE of a push towards telework/robots/or moving and decentralizing manufacturing around the world....it will be damn harder to get a job or go to University or whatever.

Also, everyone after the pandemic, from a 'fiscal' point of view, is going to be Japanese in how they use money, tight as f*ck. The days of 70% of the economy
of consumer spending driving the market are gone. Everyone under 40 years, never really facing this before are gonna pay off their house, they almost lost in
the pandemic) get health care, freak out about the job they lost save for other options or education. Everyone will have 'fiscally' grown the f*ck up as they did
after the roaring 1920s of wine and song after the great depression in the 1930s. People, even if it is a fast rebound, would have looked fiscal reality in the face.
50% of retirement and house value or business or corporation value 'poof' ...even if it all comes back, people will be changed. Like the Japanese economy for the last
20 plus years more conservative growth and less consumer spending and more debt pay down and saving.

So, if the above 2nd process comes to pass (remember I'm clueless this is my speculative bet) and the politicians use hyperinflation and other tricks to pay
down these economic bills, I'm talking 1980's 23% credit cards and over 10% inflation a  year. Bitcoin/Crypto is the other half of this and why I'm in HODL mode.
IF it acts, especially in developing nations that, in the above manner,  will have it much worse than the USA, as a truly decentralized store of value that out-paces traditional investments, you may have BTC/Crypto make up for the above.

So sh*t goes sideways on traditional investments...stocks/gold and ESPECIALLY BTC/crypto is where the $$$ will run to. IF they are a store of value at that time.

Now I know I'm wrong on ONE of the TWO above. One or on the other hand,  I will get creamed. But to think I'd dump a mess of BTC/Crypto cash out into a US economy
where I'm already well invested and taking retirement income as a 'double down' now is just silly, again, IMHO. The plan B of BTC/Crypto seems well in play now
with Trump in office and this Black Swan Event and likely very deep recession, if not worse. We will have to see inflation and job losses come back with the usual economic problems that come with it. BTC/Crypto is my hopeful store of value hedge on this. But again, this could take years in either camp to come back.

In the short-term say next 2 months. I expect my traditional investments to go down below 50% from highs in Feb 2020. I would not be surprised if BTC
went down even more to around 3-4k... But, again, IMHO, you can't just watch traditional investments get creamed like this and print trillions of dollars worldwide and expect not to have economic and inflationary consequences...thus leaving my Hoard/HODL as it is.

If they both go, well won't matter much will it. IF one of the above goes sh*t, say BTC/Crypto goes beanie baby...I'm still ok...but on the other side if traditional
investments and such take a 'decade' to come back to 2020 highs...I have a damn hard time believing that BTC/Crypto will not act, even if modestly, as a store
of value and hedge my bets, with all the inflation and mass economic damage of these trillions printed out of thin air.  Also, remember at 65 years old as of this last Monday, in 20  years they will stick me a Nursing Home anyway, if I'm lucky..so big whoop, take a chance on my views on BTC/Crypto...well, it won't matter much if I'm full of sh*t.

Again, I do think when the reality of the coronavirus hits the rest of the country, and hospitals are overcome for a period of say 2-3 weeks, even with good
social distancing the stock market will level  out at 50% down from Feb 2020 high and BTC could go below 3k. You have to sell in either area due to world and real-life issues you are neither buying stock nor crypto. Real-life issues with everyone selling at the same time is gonna be dire. Got to pay for grandma in the ICU. I have to believe for both systems when thing stabilizes there will be a buyback, tough one against inflation, but still a buyback. Or hell all hope is lost and the world indeed
will have a 'blade runner' type future. But in the next 5 years say, yech, IMHO.
 
Sh*t is gonna get real. Brace for such. If I'm wrong, well I hope so, but if I'm right, prepare yourself, all of this is black swan uncharted economic times even
without tossing BTC/crypto in the mix. again, I'm clueless, but I'm playing it this way. Only risk what you can afford to lose in real-life issues though, there is a possibility it may take a generation to get out of this hole in whatever you own in this black swan pandemic and economic event.

It may come to pass, economically speaking that today's millennial generation is in economic terms, may have more in common someday with their depression era
great,great,grandparents...then their parents when all this is said and done!

dire times indeed

my 2 satoshi's worth

Brad

Trading is a sucker's game.

Traders are milked by exchanges just like rubes at casinos.

   Thats a good demo of why people dont make the headline profit figure, they get shaken out and upset by the erratic markets when the very largest players are always aiming for balance with security and growth hence why they hedge if they can and that idea is best to have not the concept of buying all at the bottom and selling all at the top.      Its perfectly sensible not idiotic to hold Bitcoin as some savings of value earnt and only use it when you are requiring something, BTC is a useful payment method and BTC is one of a variety of asset types its fair to own.   I wouldn't say put all you have into BTC because its obvious your apparent worth can vary from riches to rags and back again and thats not a reasonable plan to have.    
   Unfortunately private players or investors or holders however you want to phrase, they are busy with life and dont get the trading profits some might see.   I'd also argue just the same for owning your own house if possible and its not easy to get on that ladder, own some gold interest as a hedge also.     Cash itself has problems because its certain to lose every year hence BTC is always reasonable to hold in some % of your total worth year to year.
   BTC long term is reasonable in contrast, try to resist going all in or selling out; I wish I had held more myself from 2013 and that year was a very big peak but even then it was ok to hold some

Fuck you. Get a very big dildo and bury it in your ass.

Fuck off flip-flopper. No one cares what you think.

You're probably right about that bit, but he's right about the breakdown of your timing.

How is it possible that you're out of pocket? If you'd arrived in 2015 and bought you will have much done better than me who bought through late 2013 and into 2014. I'm certainly not complaining but I could've been 2-3x further up than I am for the same outlay and I'm doing well anyway.

The only explanation is trading and that's something that never crossed my mind as many casualties of this thread will prove.

The fact is that it is very difficult to predict the further development of events in the cryptocurrency market, but I am sure that every investor who has made long-term investments will receive very good profit, unless he hopes to make a profit in the near future.  In any case, you need to have additional sources of income so as not to disturb your investments, which may need to be kept for several years.
In addition, one must take into account the fact that in the coming events they can significantly improve the situation in the cryptocurrency market, since thanks to the BTC halving, prices have risen in previous years, which should be repeated this year as well, and for ethereum, a significant improvement will bring ETH2.0,  which in any case will affect the entire cryptocurrency market.  Therefore, I believe that Ethereum and Bitcoin are the best bidders for long-term investments.

The WO thread is a clique. There is nothing of value to see there.

Are you trolling or just deluded? Your "facts" don't add up. You say you've been holding for 5 years. That means since 2015.

In 2015 the price of Bitcoin was well under $1k. The current price is over $6k. At one point it was over $19k. Even at its lowest point in between it was still over $3k.

Even at the worst reckoning you've made well over 200% profit. At best it was over 1800%. In reality if you'd bought at 2015's lows, your profits would have been 5x those numbers.

5 more years to "breach 10k"? LOL  Going to sub-1000s? Now I know you're trolling. Or maybe just a member of the trading cult.  

See you next year. Meanwhile, check out the Wall Observer thread to see how the more successful people live.

I'm convinced we are. I have been holding for five years and didnt have all this profit the hodlers cult talk about.

If I had sold, however, would have seem some profit.

The sad thing is that I will need to hold for five more years until bitcoin is able to breach 10k again. Right now we are going to sub-1000s levels.

smart or not, it depends on what price you hold. if you hold it from a high price, I think it's a mistake. however, if you take advantage of the decline to wait for it to bounce back, I think it is a clever way. but, it all depends on the time.

As I bought in from 1200 down to 200.  No.. no I think we are mini warren buffets


He is a buy and hold kind of guy.

Buy stocks cheap, get a large cash position when they rise. 

Rinse repeat for ever.

Long term holders are not idiots as they have chosen the easiest way of trading; if anyone who understand that holding is still a type of trading will never think about holders as idiots. Trading skills are not possible for most people and this type of people simply choosing to be a long term holders. I guess if crypto space is not believing into long term holding then we cannot have the marketcap what we are having today; marketcap of crypto space might be doing under one billion dollar level too and bitcoin might be trading below $100 without long term adopters.

It is just them same as holding Bitcoin. If you are late to sell, you won't get anything but loss so I don't think you are smart just because you hold bitcoin for a long term. You are smart if you know when to sell and when to buy, cause the purpose of investment is to take a profit not just to see your portofolio stats increase.

And even there are many people believe Bitcoin price will go to the moon one day, it is now just speculation so it would be better if you can make money during the journey to the moon.

Did you experience how to earn massive income in long term OP? or realize it now that long term investment in bitcoin is more profitable?  every long term investor now are not regretting why they choose to hold, they regret that they didn't invest in the start and hold it for long term. maybe you are included to those fools who are not knowledgable if they saw market price.  

If you are long term holder for bitcoin then you are smart but the market is filled with thousands of shit coins and token projects which are worthless and if you invest in those during the initial phase and did not bother to sell of when you hit the profit then you are going to be the bag holder. So where you invest makes a huge difference.

too far to think halving in 2024, we have to see whether this year's halving will be as successful as 2017 and if it can make the new ATH better sell it immediately and not continue to hold it, because there will definitely be a big dump after that, well if we still hold it might be said to be an idiot.

The long term holders of bitcoin are still the greatest winners of this market, even if you bought bitcoin at the beginning of 2017 when it was around 1000 dollars then you are still obtaining 7.5x your capital after just 3 years and that is really good if you compare those kind of results to any other market and that is after a huge bear market, if we take that measure the next time we are in a bull market your profits could be 2 or even 3 times your current profits.

well, a person should hodl at least some 'dust' BTC for the next ATH. If such does not happen big whoop, if it was just money you can afford to speculate with...if BTC

succeeds you may think you are a very smart fellow in 2024 at the next halving.

BTC either works or it won't pick a side.

Long term investors had no regrets for hodling their coins obviously they not idiots, it is always painful for not getting to know bitcoin earlier, I would have bought massively and hodl for a longer term perspectives and wouldn't mind if called an 'idiot' after all I had made a huge profits and I would keep on hodling as far as bitcoin exist.