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Topic: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? - page 5. (Read 39823 times)

full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 123
"PLEASE SCULPT YOUR SHIT BEFORE THROWING. Thank U"
October 26, 2014, 01:52:47 AM
and be assured that once the virus burns itself out, the border will be reopened between Nigeria and it's neighbors. But some time safety cost, but unsafely may cost more, the problem is that risk have no ideological bias, none, they are pure from any manipulation. You can have what ever opinions the risks are the same. I know it's quite evident (like fire burns, and the wind moves air, but who know...).
hero member
Activity: 568
Merit: 500
Smoke weed everyday!
October 25, 2014, 07:10:06 PM
...as we already passed the point where this could simply be quarantined away

Though I share you pessimism about Ebola, it is said that Nigeria has so few cases at the moment (officially zero) because it was much more aggressive in quarantine that other countries.  The Nigerians sent a team of people to trace every person who contacted an infected Ebola patient and had them quarantined, enforced by a spot check from a social worker every day.  This is why (it is said) Nigeria dodged a bullet (so far).  The US is much more lax in quarantine, and of course even more so is Liberia.
Another thing that Nigeria did was essentially close off it's borders to anyone who is a citizen of a country that is experiencing an ebola outbreak. This, ironically could mean that they close their borders to the US. What it means today is that they will not accept people from neighboring countries.

I would find it very hard to believe that Obama would ever close our borders
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 25, 2014, 12:58:46 PM
Ready for the attempt medical tyranny by this admin? ready for your forced vaccination injection? OBEY.

will see soon...
Dangers of lack of trust in administration become apparent in humanitarian crises. If you see your leader as the equivalent of Dada, you probably aren't going to be too willing to accept a mandated injection or even follow basic procedures pushed by their health organizations. Without a free flow of global, neutral communication easily accessible, you're stuck with whatever the government says (with medical care generally an arm of the government), whatever the mass media says, and whatever your neighbors speculate based on what That Guy heard about That Other Guy who prayed to God and was cured by crucifying an albino goat, so if you distrust the government and believe the media just repeats talking points, you better hope you have smart neighbors with a background in infectious diseases.

With recent cures and vaccines, these are things you can't even trust in even if you did have faith in the government. Right now, it'd be a bad choice to take a vaccine, I think, given how few, as a %, are dying. This'll be changing soon as we already passed the point where this could simply be quarantined away, but nobody knows the long-term effects of these new cures and vaccines, and since if an effective vaccine is found, probably everyone in affected areas will be told to receive it if it's mass-produced cheaply. A relatively tiny %death can kill millions, ignoring the possibility of it having a %chance of spreading a mutated form. Given #infected + time = more opportunities for mutations, the probability of of a mutation able to resist whatever comes out to cure or vaccinate against the strain we assume we need to worry about is always increasing, so we have a wicked problem -- the longer a cure or vaccine is tested, the more people will die and the better chance that this becomes an endemic or the cure/vaccine turns out ineffective against a new strain which spread during testing, but injecting without adequate tests can cause more deaths than not injecting - and we can't know which route's better until the governments commit to a plan and see it through.

When put this way you make ebola seem not so bad after all.
Government medical authority is pandemic, and individuals encouraged to feel helpless without it.
This virus decides who lives and who dies and when and how people die.
Nations that have attached this to the same level and branch of government that are also responsible for paying the survivor benefits (pensions, social security, etc) seems to create a perverse incentive.

It also creates a perverse incentive for citizens, who may put up with a corrupt government because they have personal medical issues and can't abide any disruption in their own treatment.  Along with this, it also provides easy access to every individual vulnerability a person has to the largest and most powerful institutions globally, and entrusts that information to their safeguarding from anyone that might wish you harm.

This virus and the ebola-panic virus have a symbiotic relationship.  The more ebola-panic there is, the more folks will run to their government to "do something".
Those we go to for help, we also empower.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
October 25, 2014, 11:34:10 AM
...as we already passed the point where this could simply be quarantined away

Though I share you pessimism about Ebola, it is said that Nigeria has so few cases at the moment (officially zero) because it was much more aggressive in quarantine that other countries.  The Nigerians sent a team of people to trace every person who contacted an infected Ebola patient and had them quarantined, enforced by a spot check from a social worker every day.  This is why (it is said) Nigeria dodged a bullet (so far).  The US is much more lax in quarantine, and of course even more so is Liberia.
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1015
October 25, 2014, 04:46:17 AM
Ready for the attempt medical tyranny by this admin? ready for your forced vaccination injection? OBEY.

will see soon...
Dangers of lack of trust in administration become apparent in humanitarian crises. If you see your leader as the equivalent of Dada, you probably aren't going to be too willing to accept a mandated injection or even follow basic procedures pushed by their health organizations. Without a free flow of global, neutral communication easily accessible, you're stuck with whatever the government says (with medical care generally an arm of the government), whatever the mass media says, and whatever your neighbors speculate based on what That Guy heard about That Other Guy who prayed to God and was cured by crucifying an albino goat, so if you distrust the government and believe the media just repeats talking points, you better hope you have smart neighbors with a background in infectious diseases.

With recent cures and vaccines, these are things you can't even trust in even if you did have faith in the government. Right now, it'd be a bad choice to take a vaccine, I think, given how few, as a %, are dying. This'll be changing soon as we already passed the point where this could simply be quarantined away, but nobody knows the long-term effects of these new cures and vaccines, and since if an effective vaccine is found, probably everyone in affected areas will be told to receive it if it's mass-produced cheaply. A relatively tiny %death can kill millions, ignoring the possibility of it having a %chance of spreading a mutated form. Given #infected + time = more opportunities for mutations, the probability of of a mutation able to resist whatever comes out to cure or vaccinate against the strain we assume we need to worry about is always increasing, so we have a wicked problem -- the longer a cure or vaccine is tested, the more people will die and the better chance that this becomes an endemic or the cure/vaccine turns out ineffective against a new strain which spread during testing, but injecting without adequate tests can cause more deaths than not injecting - and we can't know which route's better until the governments commit to a plan and see it through.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 123
"PLEASE SCULPT YOUR SHIT BEFORE THROWING. Thank U"
October 24, 2014, 11:14:26 PM
Ready for the attempt medical tyranny by this admin? ready for your forced vaccination injection? OBEY.

will see soon...
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 24, 2014, 10:52:01 PM
What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

I'm talking about planet The Earth, not only about Africa or USA.

Do you think, winter will isolate the World from Ebola in Africa ?

That depends on the temperature in which the Ebola virus can survive outside of the host. I have no data about this.
Here in Alaska there are huge distances between people so spread would be very slow.

Winter moves from hemisphere to hemisphere. and pretty much skips the equatorial zones.
The virus can survive wet stored longer in cool than in warm, so probably not so much isolatied, no.
In a cold dry place it has been observed to remain infectious for 50 days. (so possibly also much longer)

Some data, and references to the studies:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php

Quote
SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C) Footnote 52 Footnote 61. One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature Footnote 61.  In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20°C and 25°C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of virus reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa) Footnote 53. When dried in tissue culture media onto glass and stored at 4 °C, Zaire ebolavirus survived for over 50 days Footnote 61. This information is based on experimental findings only and not based on observations in nature. This information is intended to be used to support local risk assessments in a laboratory setting.

A study on transmission of ebolavirus from fomites in an isolation ward concludes that the risk of transmission is low when recommended infection control guidelines for viral hemorrhagic fevers are followed Footnote 64. Infection control protocols included decontamination of floors with 0.5% bleach daily and decontamination of visibly contaminated surfaces with 0.05% bleach as necessary.
sr. member
Activity: 518
Merit: 250
October 24, 2014, 03:16:19 PM
What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

I'm talking about planet The Earth, not only about Africa or USA.

Do you think, winter will isolate the World from Ebola in Africa ?

That depends on the temperature in which the Ebola virus can survive outside of the host. I have no data about this.
Here in Alaska there are huge distances between people so spread would be very slow.
sr. member
Activity: 1120
Merit: 263
Sovryn - 300-500% APY on USDT Deposit
October 24, 2014, 03:13:17 PM
What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

I'm talking about planet The Earth, not only about Africa or USA.

Do you think, winter will isolate the World from Ebola in Africa ?
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 24, 2014, 01:11:57 PM
The news and politicians are stupid liars.  It is not helpful to lie in order to placate the panicking masses.  They then lose trust with information sources and make up things to believe.

"Ebola can only be contracted by contact with bodily fluids"
"Casual contact can not transmit this disease"


Ebola, like all virus, is contracted by contact with the virus.  
The virus is tiny.  It can maintain infectiousness in fine mist or moisture, and yes, this can be small enough to stay airborne for a time.  Ebola isn't like an STD (though you can certainly get it that way too).
Though it typically will be contracted when a host human crashes and bleeds out, during the clean-up of the remains, etc., statements like the above just sound like magical thinking, as though there were some limit on how the virus RNA crashes into a cell that can replicate it in a living body.  It is simple science, not magic.

yeah they are stupid.  they care more about "public panic" than actually science or reality.  then nobody will believe them if it gets worse and people will panic.  how dumb are these people....it seems they are run by idiots with psychology/marketing degrees....bottom of the barrel.

If so, they failed their psych courses too.
Yes, their actions run counter to their public policy.  The way to deal with panic is to provide good information in a way that is understandable.  
Their ELI5 is more like a "Lie like a dog and hope for re-election".
It is also going to make it hard for them to explain why they killed your dog and quarantined you.
http://nypost.com/2014/10/23/spanish-nurse-who-had-ebola-finally-told-her-dog-was-killed/
legendary
Activity: 2294
Merit: 1182
Now the money is free, and so the people will be
October 24, 2014, 12:46:33 PM
The news and politicians are stupid liars.  It is not helpful to lie in order to placate the panicking masses.  They then lose trust with information sources and make up things to believe.

"Ebola can only be contracted by contact with bodily fluids"
"Casual contact can not transmit this disease"


Ebola, like all virus, is contracted by contact with the virus.  
The virus is tiny.  It can maintain infectiousness in fine mist or moisture, and yes, this can be small enough to stay airborne for a time.  Ebola isn't like an STD (though you can certainly get it that way too).
Though it typically will be contracted when a host human crashes and bleeds out, during the clean-up of the remains, etc., statements like the above just sound like magical thinking, as though there were some limit on how the virus RNA crashes into a cell that can replicate it in a living body.  It is simple science, not magic.

yeah they are stupid.  they care more about "public panic" than actually science or reality.  then nobody will believe them if it gets worse and people will panic.  how dumb are these people....it seems they are run by idiots with psychology/marketing degrees....bottom of the barrel.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 24, 2014, 12:40:06 PM
The news and politicians are stupid liars.  It is not helpful to lie in order to placate the panicking masses.  They then lose trust with information sources and make up things to believe.

"Ebola can only be contracted by contact with bodily fluids"
"Casual contact can not transmit this disease"


Ebola, like all virus, is contracted by contact with the virus.  
The virus is tiny.  It can maintain infectiousness in fine mist or moisture, and yes, this can be small enough to stay airborne for a time.  Ebola isn't like an STD (though you can certainly get it that way too).
Though it typically will be contracted when a host human crashes and bleeds out, during the clean-up of the remains, etc., statements like the above just sound like magical thinking, as though there were some limit on how the virus RNA crashes into a cell that can replicate it in a living body.  It is simple science, not magic.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 24, 2014, 12:14:01 PM
Gloves may become fashionable again.
Maybe I should make some alpaca gloves.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
October 24, 2014, 11:53:23 AM
Quote
According to a rough timeline provided by city officials, in the days before Spencer fell ill, he went on a 3-mile jog, went to the High Line park, rode the subway and, on Wednesday night, got a taxi to a Brooklyn bowling alley. He felt tired starting Tuesday, and felt worse on Thursday when he and his fiancee made a joint call to authorities to detail his symptoms and his travels. EMTs in full Ebola gear arrived and took him to Bellevue in an ambulance surrounded by police squad cars.

Holy Complications Batman


Rode the subway... that's going to be impossible to track... now just wait until more become ill and spread it before being isolated... bugger... Sad
sr. member
Activity: 518
Merit: 250
October 24, 2014, 11:17:11 AM
Finally some good news: Nigeria and Senegal are now officially Ebola-free.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/20/health/ebola-outbreak-roundup/


Nice but I don't believe it.  The definition of "Ebola free" is the lack of a reported Ebola case for three weeks.  But I bet some people are not reporting their illness (or it would not surprise me).
"Ebola free" should be read as no infected person has been registered. The virus is probably still in the area because it can survive in other mammals including apes and bats.
Another form of this virus has been found in 1976, the virus can survive for many many years in an area.

maybe it is a good idea to register some ebola related domain names
Is there a market for ebola?   Huh
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
October 24, 2014, 10:28:19 AM
maybe it is a good idea to register some ebola related domain names
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1015
October 24, 2014, 08:32:45 AM
What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected
OOO! I wanna play the scare game!

800k on Christmas (WHO#*2.5). Case in UK confirmed by end of October, continental Europe will see infected cases by EoY. US will see >50 cases by EoY and will close borders to affected African countries around Black Friday.
legendary
Activity: 1789
Merit: 2535
Goonies never say die.
October 24, 2014, 06:41:18 AM
Quote
According to a rough timeline provided by city officials, in the days before Spencer fell ill, he went on a 3-mile jog, went to the High Line park, rode the subway and, on Wednesday night, got a taxi to a Brooklyn bowling alley. He felt tired starting Tuesday, and felt worse on Thursday when he and his fiancee made a joint call to authorities to detail his symptoms and his travels. EMTs in full Ebola gear arrived and took him to Bellevue in an ambulance surrounded by police squad cars.

Holy Complications Batman

full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
October 24, 2014, 05:13:33 AM
What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected

No, if anything winter will accelerate it, since more people indoors and touching their face, etc.

I say Ebola is the most under-reported story in the USA at the moment.  And if the USA has four cases, you know Nigeria, despite being declared "Ebola free", has many more, undetected / unreported.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 24, 2014, 12:52:18 AM
What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected
IIRC cold weather helps virus molecule stay together, hence people catch colds in winter, if same principle is at work, more ebola cases in winter?
Cold and darkness preserve the virus, so that it can remain viable and infect over a much longer delay. 
The upside is that intense UV can kill it. 
(Using mechines to deliver UV is one of the proposed methods of disinfecting hospital rooms.)
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