Topic: ASICMINER AUCTION 2000 sahres. - page 11. (Read 16287 times)

Ha, touché


I think the majority of the valuation comes from the fact that profits (and dividends along with it) are going to enormous until both Avalon and BFL kick it into gear, combined with the long term prospects (assuming ASICMiner continues to develop more advanced hardware as the years go on).

That said, I still agree with you on pretty much all the points made..and I, personally, value long term investments quite a bit more. But I do know most Bitcoin investors tend to have a short attention span, which is why I kept my company's mining fund more on the medium term ..the security that starts after the bond holders are paid back is the long term part of my company

Anyway, I digressed. TL;DR - I see the points made, and although I agree that they add value I am still wary about the price tag for such a valuation.

Thanks for laying it out there, Deprived

You're missing a whole bunch of things.  Here's the most obvious:

People aren't investing for the 12 TH/s they have now.  That would be like me claiming people investing in your mining company are investing for the ZERO TH/s you have now.

The investment is for the long-term value.  Where I disagree with you (and I KNOW we disagree - as you wouldn't have started your company if you agreed) is that I believe in the medium to long-term only companies with a significant edge of some kind will be able to make a profit from BTC mining.   That's because the barrier to entry to mining is so low that all the time it's profitable to do, more people will keep getting in.  And even when it becomes unprofitable more will STILL come in - those doing it for fun, those with an inability to do math and those running mining companies who take a cut of revenue and pass the losses on to investors.

Manufacturing your own ASICs is about the biggest such edge possible - when hardware costs 10% of what it costs competitors you have a massive advantage.  Add to that Chinese power/labour costs and you have a company that there's just no way the likes of you can compete against - they can mine profitably long after you're making a loss.

Not only do investors get that mining - but also a share of profits from sales to the mathematically challenged who mine or who run mining companies selling investment to those with even less ability in math.

That's what's being sold.

Oh - and if you DO want to look at just the first 12 GH/s, do remember that the 200k BitFountain get nothing until the other shares (the type being sold here) have got back their initial 0.1 BTC.  That adds just over .05 BTC to the value alone.

And these aren't mining bonds but equity in a company.

A number of factors:

At 0.1 BTC / share, there was significant risk - development problems for example, and nobody could predict if ASICMINER will be the first to market (they are definitely beating avalon's ASIC trickle).

The BTC price rally is a null point - higher BTC worth means that mining companies will make more USD income, and vice versa.

Ah, sounds good. Thanks John.



Right, I understand that...but that's surely not the only aspect going into this evaluation?

At 12TH/s (their starting projection before ramping up to 50TH/s or more), it's 30MH/s per share (400,000 shares). These 2000 shares up for offer are worth 60GH/s...in August 2012 (at IPO price of .1BTC), it was worth 200BTC, or $2,000 (at roughly $10 per BTC back then).

So now you're telling me that 6 months of risk (and BTC rallying) has resulted in $2,000 in shares suddenly becoming worth $20,500? [2000 shares x .38BTC minimum valuation x $27 USD/BTC]
Even at 50TH/s, it's only 125MH/s per share...2000 of which would result in 250GH/s. In my mind, I simply can't justify how that could be worth a minimum of 760 Bitcoins, even when factoring in risk...

Clearly there's something I'm missing...or maybe people bidding for these shares haven't done their math yet?

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You simply buying a small part of ASIC mining hardware working 24 h/7 days. (1/400 000 of ASICMiner power).
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asicminer-entering-the-future-of-asic-mining-by-inventing-it-99497

Name	Number of shares	pps
PM1	25	0.45
TradeFortress	100	0.41
mb300sd	400	0.40
Sal002	25	0.39
wachtwoord	25	0.39
Sukrim	75	0.39
TradeFortress	500	0.39
ahdinosaur	125	0.38
BlackLilac	200	0.38
ghostshirt	75	0.38
Vezunchik	250	0.38
PM2	200	0.38

-------OUTBID------------------------

Name	Number of shares	pps
PM2	200	0.38
keystroke	250	0.38
Vezunchik	150	0.38

500 @ 0.39
100 @ 0.41

Im sorry I have no idea how this works as an investment, is anyone willing to break it down for my feeble mind?

75 @ 0.39
(=29.25 total)

I think that increases of 0.01 are too high btw. considering that the starting price is just 0.38 per share and one has to buy in packs of 25 shares.

Name	Number of shares	pps
PM1	25	0.45
mb300sd	400	0.40
Sal002	25	0.39
wachtwoord	25	0.39
ahdinosaur	125	0.38
BlackLilac	200	0.38
ghostshirt	75	0.38
Vezunchik	250	0.38
PM2	400	0.38
keystroke	250	0.38
Vezunchik	150	0.38

And do not forget that this means
250 @ 0.38 # 14 + 150 @ 0.38 # 30

Please update my bid:
400 @ 0.38

Name	Number of shares	pps
PM1	25	0.45
mb300sd	400	0.40
Sal002	25	0.39
wachtwoord	25	0.39
ahdinosaur	125	0.38
BlackLilac	200	0.38
ghostshirt	75	0.38
Vezunchik	250	0.38
PM2	400	0.38
keystroke	250	0.38

25 @ 0.39

250 @ .38

500 @ 0.4