Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1011. (Read 3917058 times)

First, let me apologize to all the other readers of this thread for harping on about this.

Secondly, I guess "value" is a very subjective notion and I am perfectly happy to agree to disagree on this.

Furthermore, I agree with you that the future is uncertain - also with respect to AMs future performance, it is by no means guaranteed that it will continue to be successful.

But the difference between AM and a piece of hardware is that AM is capable of strategic adaptation. I concede that a specific piece of hardware may outperform AM for a short period (your example arbitrarily showed one year, and I suppose that is OK for your purposes, but my horizon is longer). Beyond the very short term, however, the capability to adapt becomes more important: in three years the piece of hardware you purchased today will continue to hash at 5 GH/s regardless of what the network hash rate is (i.e. essentially earning very low returns), but at that time I expect AM has expanded and evolved way beyond what it is today and continues to rake in large profits.

It is uncertain whether or not AM will still be raking in huge profits in three years. But I can guarantee that your 5 GH/s miner will be more or less worthless at that time.

Those are just my thoughts, and anybody is of course welcome to disagree and invest as they see fit, focusing on the time horizon or risk profile that fits their personal taste. So now that I shared that, I will stop harping on about it - back to your regularly scheduled programme...

don't mean to burst your bubble, but yeah, it IS faulty. Everything in that list has a decelerating profit vector due to the fact that the hardware cannot be upgraded and has a definite lifespan (assuming hash rate increases over time - a pretty safe bet). The exception is AM, which not only mines using hardware like the other 3 examples, but also sells hardware to others, effectively offloading the lifespan-based risk at a discount and keeping the instant profits, which are then redistributed to shareholders.

It's rather like comparing 3 fixed-rate CDs versus a growth stock during a time of inflation. The CDs will perform less and less over time, but the growth stock is not limited to the fixed return that the CDs are, even though both are affected the same by inflation. (inflation is analogous to hash rate in this example)

 right leaving out a hd7790 and using a hd7970 is wrong since a 7790 is the cheapest gpu for btc mining based on hash /power / price.  


 A hd7790 is 300 hash for 80 watts at 1.1 btc  

 a hd7970 is 650 hash for 240 watts at 3.3 btc    


 at todays rates  the hd7970 makes about $1.55 a day   2 hd7790's make about $1.67 a day    and you spent 3 btc to get the hd7970 and 2 btc to get 2 hd7790's...  of course if you are short slots some will argue the hd7970 is better. in my case I sold off used hd7970's and replaced with hd7790's worked out well sell one used hd7970 and get 3 new hd7790's pretty good deal.

 

   yep and they promise to start shipping them soon. (2 weeks)  but if they offer  multiple 5ghs units to replace the little single and the single people will take them.

   I don't consider them to be a great company and I cancelled all my orders for little singles months ago  use that money to invest in AM made some good coin.  I have no complaints about AM from march 2013  to now.  they did nice by money.  I am pointing out that a 5GH/s unit for 2.5 coins is a lot cheaper then a usb stick for 2 coins  since you need 16 usb sticks to hash at the rate of 1 bfl unit.  I was pretty convinced that BFL would fail and I did cancel my larger orders in March  And in early May.  


 Once again the BFL  5GH unit is about 2GH per btc.

 The  AM 334MH unit is about 167MH per btc.   The AM blade is about 200MH per btc.   These units will stop selling very soon at those prices.  If BFL continues to ship. (big if)

  While a good amount of usb sticks sold 4000 there are 6000 not sold.  the 2BTC was always too high of a price.  When it first came out I pointed this out by comparing it to hd7790's my point was simple anyone with an empty slot in a pc was better off using hd7790 as it was 1btc for 300 hash and the stick was 333 hash for 2 BTC.  the 1 coin price difference takes more then 200 days to make up for in power savings.   A hd7790 cost 2 kwatt a day if your pc has room for it. at .25 usd a kwatt that would be .50 usd a day for power that means 240 days to be the 1 btc price difference. I purchased 8 hd7790's on APRIL  1 they hashed at 2400MH and earned  over 8btc back minus power about  7btc.  I was lucky and the first few coins earned  were high priced so my 8 cards now cost about 1btc.

  if I purchased  8 usb sticks my cost would have been 16btc I would be down  9btc.   this window is dying now since the power edge for the usb sticks will soon make them better then a hd7790.  the problem is the bfl 5gh unit crushes a usb stick and 2 bfl 5gh units bitch slap a blade. So the sales window for AM is closing at the current prices they charge.  Since no one knows ( a few do not us) what a stick or a blade really cost none of us know how low AM can price them.   So As I have been saying  AM's sales are going to drop in price or volume which means AM has to maintain its mining percentage to stay on top.  Hell for all I know AM can go to 150Th as I type and they are just going to keep at that 20-30 % level for years to come. I just do not see the equipment sales continuing to whale any more. Thus dividends will be lower. more like .02 not .038 a share. I see AM at 1.5BTC a share by Aug 1.  

But hell this is a market not real math and I am missing tons of info.  

Comparison is NOT faulty. It is a comparison of "investment" (whether in hardware or a company) and "return" (whether mined bitcoins or dividends paid out as bitcoins). I think most people will agree that the value of hardware (GPU or ASICs) will generally depreciate over time, so that is a "known." The big unknown is AM, which as you point out is a company. We hope they will continuously renew itself, but anything can happen.

AM sends the dividends to burnside or deadterra and those people sends it out to that shares in the PT. Its indirect and you never come into contact with friedcat.

WTF? I didn't even mention a 7790, so how can I be wrong?

How does it work? Does AM make one big payment to pass throughs and the pass through makes small payments inside? Or AM pays dividends to each share holder inside of a pass through?

Edit, while typing an answer appeared by burnside. Does that work the same way with BitFunder?

I quoted the txid of our last div payment in the BTCT.CO ASICMINER-PT thread.  It all came as one transaction.

Hint: On the passthrus, you can see how many each hold (BF/BTCT). Check out the G Doc listed above to see which address that holds that number of shares. Presto...

We have heard a lot about BFL shipping 5GH/s devices. The problem BFL have is that is all they can ship. It appears that most of the chips used in the currently shipping devices are doing ~2.7GH/s each (2 chips/device). If you want the 7GH/s device, they want to charge you an extra $100 to use 2 ~3.7GH/s chips. The inference I draw from this is that their 'best' chips are ~3.7GH/s, but they have many more which are lower performing or do not work at all.

Their 25GH/s and 50GH/s devices will require chips with a minimum of 3.125GH/s hashrate each (8 for the little and 16 for the big) to meet the specs. That requires that BFL have those chips in volume. The next inference I draw is that if they chose to ship those bigger devices they'd go broke, which is why they're not shipping them.

The order book for big devices is a huge liability for BFL.

dayum!! I'd sure like to have any address above line 200 instead i think my addy is the last one oh well i'll take it and just try and hold my envy for all of you here...

Whoever says AM is a bad investment, I hope they are wrong I decided to put all my mined btc into AM shares as i saw the end of my mining quickly approaching...and still wanted to have btc income w/o having to buy it or mine at a loss...so i was glad when i found AM and btc-tc...granted it won't be huge income...but still better then none

Since there are almost 400,000 shares on the list it mean PT shares are included. But there are no transfers with around 20,000 shares (btct.co and bitfunder). So it must mean the pass through exchanges don't get dividends in one transfer, but multiple.

Which of the transfers belong to pass throughs?

Frankly  sitting on the sidelines and watching the show may be better then any investment at all.   I can give 5 bad points to every BTC investment today.  Your point of big hash ramp up is true.  we may go from 15 to 18 to 22 then 26     20% each jump up.  This is very likely to happen .

If true and asicminer ramps right up with it then AM will be fine. 

 So on July 1 when the network is 220Th if AM is 66TH  AM will be okay even if AM can't sell its usb sticks any more.

Or has dropped price to .5BTC for a stick and 8BTC for a Blade  of course I am saying those numbers because they would be the correct price if BFL has finally turned the corner.  Or some other developer uses a bunch of avalon chips to make a good machine at a good price.  This summer will have lots of action.   

One thing for sure gpus will end hashing  for BTC in 2013.

What happens if you update your model for recent difficulty trends.

IE: Change it from 10% increases every 2 weeks, to 33.6% every two weeks. (The real rate of difficulty increases is over triple what you used, and is likely to only accelerate as other asic hw vendors start shipping gear in volume.)

Also, please remember that a share of AM represents equity in a mining and HW manufacturing company. Unlike HW, and other fixed mining assets, AM shares will not quickly depreciate in value. So at the end of the year, you'll likely be able to sell AM for at least what you paid for (or somewhere close). Good luck trying to sell any of that mining HW in a year for anything near the price you paid for it.

-helixone

if later the bitcoin system can be used to send such small transactions and not be a problem,

why cant we just let it do it now, why is it considered spam? if the system is able to withould this amount a traffic, it shouldnt matter why or who or when these transactions are occured,
it should be allowed with no problem, just take time to confirm thats all...

Most likely it is so
Heck if Half Life 3 Is the Rapture lets add Two Weeks to BFL

Edit What Saveawedge said

Ok back to thread
The Hardware can make a short term profit but yep depends on duration you want to hold it for
Could still make a profit though if the price goes up to 200 USD Btc again sometime if your willing to mine at a theoretical loss and believe that the exchange rate will appreciate with your mining before the difficulty

Two weeks after I think.

HA! so what you are telling me is that BFL will ship the same day as Half Life 3?

We call it BFL Time
Taken from Valve Time
https://developer.valvesoftware.com/wiki/Valve_Time