ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1010.

metavox

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Quote from: philipma1957 on June 07, 2013, 07:23:00 AM

Quote from: Aajo on June 07, 2013, 01:17:21 AM

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc. and a .3btc stick for 2btc

this was pushed into divs payout and divs have been huge.

All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been. 3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

Your basic analysis is correct, but your conclusions assume AM has no gameplan for this scenario. Any company selling products in a competitive space needs to assume this will happen. Products sell for premiums when there is minimal competition. Prices drop to increase sales volume when competition increases and demand lowers. Margins shrink. Meanwhile, any responsible company will already have a successor product in the pipeline to bring on the market when the conditions are correct (profit has dropped too far, old inventory has cleared, competitive environment is favorable, etc). The fact that they sold ~40% of their sticks at top premium price is amazing. I'm sure they will offer price reduction soon enough to move the rest of the inventory.

At this point, we're looking toward the first conclusion of a product cycle within the ASIC space as competition comes online. What AM does here is pivotal to investor confidence. If they have been planning well, we won't see a huge change in business performance. If they haven't planned for this, we'll see the gap you are predicting. Place your bets.

binaryFate

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Still wild and free

Quote from: JordanL on June 07, 2013, 08:54:21 AM

An idea: announced, incremental price decreases. Blades mine ~X per hour/day... price of each blade/USB decreases by ~X per hour/day.

Not a good idea IMHO. I'd find better to offer discounts for large orders, with these offers changing over time. Something along these lines. Little step by little step you can change pricing policy in a more subtle way than just saying "yesterday was 2.5, today is 1.5".

JordanL

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Quote from: radiumsoup on June 07, 2013, 08:37:18 AM

Quote from: VeeMiner on June 07, 2013, 08:27:03 AM

Quote from: JordanL on June 06, 2013, 11:37:01 PM

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much

Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

I believe he's thinking along the lines of those who would purchase blades days/hours before the price reduction.

An idea: announced, incremental price decreases. Blades mine ~X per hour/day... price of each blade/USB decreases by ~X per hour/day.

Dang I'm a smart one. Sitting around thinking of more work for friedcat.

JSMill

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Quote from: radiumsoup on June 07, 2013, 08:37:18 AM

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

I agree that people should not be upset about the price dropping, but at the same time customers may be hesitant to buy if prices are always dropping (may reduce long term revenues). I am a fan of keeping the price stable if there is still strong demand as friedcat stated.

Currently AM still has 0 competition in terms of companies that can reliably ship you an ASIC in a reasonable time frame. Until BFL and other companies actually do catch up and start shipping in a timely fashion, I don't think AM should react to their pricing.

twmz

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Quote from: freedomno1 on June 06, 2013, 04:39:33 PM

No problem learning more and getting less confused with each clarification

In Friedcat's dividend where did that 0.00000001 come from?

Before friedcat sends the dividends transaction, he sends another transaction that is used to identify how many shares each address owns. If you own 1 share, you get paid 0.00000001. If you own 5 shares, you get paid 0.0000005. If you own 2000 shares, you get paid 0.00002000, etc. Since there are people that do own only 1 share, this transaction always has at least one 0.00000001 payment in it and so it always looks like spam.

Quote from: freedomno1 on June 06, 2013, 04:39:33 PM

Thanks for explaining the client change and hope that algorithm adaption occurs sometime in the near future
Is their any time-frame at this stage on that

Gavin didn't say.

radiumsoup

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Quote from: VeeMiner on June 07, 2013, 08:27:03 AM

Quote from: JordanL on June 06, 2013, 11:37:01 PM

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much

Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

VeeMiner

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bitcoin hodler

Quote from: JordanL on June 06, 2013, 11:37:01 PM

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much

Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

Mausini

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Activity: 177

Merit: 100

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 07, 2013, 07:23:00 AM

Quote from: Aajo on June 07, 2013, 01:17:21 AM

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc. and a .3btc stick for 2btc

this was pushed into divs payout and divs have been huge.

All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been. 3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

you are ridiculous. get out of here

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Aajo on June 07, 2013, 01:17:21 AM

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc. and a .3btc stick for 2btc

this was pushed into divs payout and divs have been huge.

All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been. 3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

237

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It feels like the same discussion is repeating itself after 10-20 pages over and over.

fiaskow

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Quote from: GuiltySpark343 on June 06, 2013, 07:56:27 PM

Quote from: bitfair on June 06, 2013, 04:50:27 PM

The comparison is faulty because AM is a company and the other alternatives are hardware.

Why is that relevant, you ask? Well, AM will (hopefully) continuously renew itself and its strategy in order to keep earnings high, whereas the hardware simply gets outdated and earns progressively less and less as time goes along. So: buying hardware may earn you more in the short term, shares in AM may earn you more in the long term.

Comparison is NOT faulty. It is a comparison of "investment" (whether in hardware or a company) and "return" (whether mined bitcoins or dividends paid out as bitcoins). I think most people will agree that the value of hardware (GPU or ASICs) will generally depreciate over time, so that is a "known." The big unknown is AM, which as you point out is a company. We hope they will continuously renew itself, but anything can happen.

It is faulty. Usually "return" is calculated as the appreciation in share price + dividends. If we make the assumption that the share price stays the same indefinitely, you will certainly realise a positive return whenever you choose to sell your shares. Obviously we would like to see the share price appreciate as well.

The rest of the investment examples are correct and you fix your GH/BTC rate when you purchase. With AM, your GH/BTC investment will increase overtime as Friedcat expands his mining effort and switch to 2nd gen ASICS etc. In the long term, this is where you want to be!

Aajo

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pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

ThatDGuy

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Activity: 728

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Quote from: 101111 on June 06, 2013, 11:15:43 PM

yes, it's not often you can get shares in a tech startup making $ from day 1.

Very remarkable indeed!

JordanL

donator

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

101111

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Activity: 525

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yes, it's not often you can get shares in a tech startup making $ from day 1.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: 101111 on June 06, 2013, 10:57:47 PM

The point about asicminer shares being shares in a company as compared to products from a company, seems to get lost on some.

What could asicminer shares be worth in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years time? How much would they have earned by then in divs; what revenue streams will there be from applications and earning channels undreamed of yet?

Sure some hot new product may come onto the market, and you can keep product comparisons to that for interest sake if you must, but c'mon, these graphics cards and such with built-in rapid obsolescence are no comparison to AM shares.

mci was a stock company as countless others.

I like AM they made money for me just because I am not on the same page as others when it comes to pricing of the gear that they sell it does not mean that they have not made money for a lot of people. Myself included.

101111

hero member

Activity: 525

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The point about asicminer shares being shares in a company as compared to products from a company, seems to get lost on some.

What could asicminer shares be worth in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years time? How much would they have earned by then in divs; what revenue streams will there be from applications and earning channels undreamed of yet?

Sure some hot new product may come onto the market, and you can keep product comparisons to that for interest sake if you must, but c'mon, these graphics cards and such with built-in rapid obsolescence are no comparison to AM shares.

Eric Muyser

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You can't kill math.

Quote from: daemondazz on June 06, 2013, 10:48:08 PM

I'm going to hazard a guess that the USB miners probably cost around $USD30-40 to make, which at $120/BTC would make them around 0.25BTC. There is plenty of room for them to drop the price (and quickly) as and when some actual competition appears.

This ^ AM is smart.

They are capitalizing on their investment and IP.

Intel does it too. They are so mainstream and have AMD to compete with though that the generations progress and prices decrease at a higher pace. AM has no such AMD, just a bunch of wannabe's as of yet.

daemondazz

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I'm going to hazard a guess that the USB miners probably cost around $USD30-40 to make, which at $120/BTC would make them around 0.25BTC. There is plenty of room for them to drop the price (and quickly) as and when some actual competition appears.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: bitfair on June 06, 2013, 09:53:55 PM

Quote from: GuiltySpark343 on June 06, 2013, 07:56:27 PM

Quote from: bitfair on June 06, 2013, 04:50:27 PM

The comparison is faulty because AM is a company and the other alternatives are hardware.

Why is that relevant, you ask? Well, AM will (hopefully) continuously renew itself and its strategy in order to keep earnings high, whereas the hardware simply gets outdated and earns progressively less and less as time goes along. So: buying hardware may earn you more in the short term, shares in AM may earn you more in the long term.

Comparison is NOT faulty. It is a comparison of "investment" (whether in hardware or a company) and "return" (whether mined bitcoins or dividends paid out as bitcoins). I think most people will agree that the value of hardware (GPU or ASICs) will generally depreciate over time, so that is a "known." The big unknown is AM, which as you point out is a company. We hope they will continuously renew itself, but anything can happen.

...

But the difference between AM and a piece of hardware is that AM is capable of strategic adaptation...

I completely agree that AM can bust a move and when they bust one I will most likely buy in again.

For now I see them with 6000 usb sticks not sold and no new pricing strategy. Now I concede I am not an insider and I have 0 info on what BFL can sell in the future but they have finished all of JULY 2012 and have started on August 2012. On May 23 they had June 23-25 shipped. So 2 weeks later (boy do we love that 2 weeks) they are up to August of 2012. Just remember 1x 5ghs unit at 2.5 BTC = 16 sticks at a total of 32 BTC . AM selling sticks at 2 BTC may have looked good to most stock owners of AM but I always stated they were overpriced. Go back and look at my posts. So to me it looks like short term thinking on the part of AM. I am not second guessing since I said this at the get go.

Still the sticks may not be a big problem all that matters is AM paces the hash percentage correctly 22-32% and AM does not need to sell a thing just mine away and let others do the selling of the picks and shovels so to speak.

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