What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
Profit taking after a run up is not unusual.
Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1129. (Read 3917058 times)
What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
Profit taking after a run up is not unusual.
This thread is a complete clusterfuck to anyone but a few dozens early shareholders.
.........
The update are coming drop by drop, lost in these 230 pages, it's as if the whole operation was run by Friedcat alone,,, How will that thing scale ?
I think this is a concern to many. This is a great company that needs more of a 'management team' than one person alone who is achieving great things, but it potentially overwhelmed with the breadth of work required.
I have offered to help, as a fan and shareholder of the company and with direct experience on Boards of similar and bigger companies, but as yet have had no reply.
The market on the PTs is tiny and illiquid, so small changes in supply/demand alter the price easily. Look at the volume graph, it has never traded over around 60 shares daily in recent months.
The big increase a few weeks back was started by me. I decided to buy some AM shares as I like the company and I spent an amount that would have bought a board seat at IPO, but now only buys a small amount of shares.
After this little spike, which was increased as some others followed this rise then some existing holders saw the opportunity to exit some of their positions and started the many auctions.
My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.
The big increase a few weeks back was started by me. I decided to buy some AM shares as I like the company and I spent an amount that would have bought a board seat at IPO, but now only buys a small amount of shares.
After this little spike, which was increased as some others followed this rise then some existing holders saw the opportunity to exit some of their positions and started the many auctions.
My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.
Are there any shares available for purchase anywhere at this point?
You can purchase shares here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=196273.new#new
Or on a passthrough like bitfunder:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.
USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.
Maybe people are selling their shares so they can buy the USB sticks. :p
i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.
USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.
yea, i know. i'm not complaining about it. heck, i'm organizing a group buy of em. but you can't deny it surprised a lot of people, and not in a good way. that kind of thing strikes me as exactly the sort of thing that effects the sentiment around a stock.
Perhaps and there are folks trying to make their own USB miners via Avalon chips to sell at a cheaper price. Seeing as its DIY folks making them, there will be no set standard and a severe lack of quality control. Friedcat has taken time to help folks that have bought AM blades to set it up, I see no different with the USB miners. That support hasn't shown itself with any DIY'ers so far.
i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.
USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.
yea, i know. i'm not complaining about it. heck, i'm organizing a group buy of em. but you can't deny it surprised a lot of people, and not in a good way. that kind of thing strikes me as exactly the sort of thing that effects the sentiment around a stock.
i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.
USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.
i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.
C'mon what's wrong with this picture?
friedcat updates with fantastic news, stock prices on PT exchanges plummets. And by plummets, I mean a 10% drop in a week.
Volatility is fine, but except a slightly skeptical price reception on those bees, I have seen positive news only for the previous week. BFL is late as always, Avalon delayed, friedcat responding with perfection to inquiries (including mine)...
We should have started the weekly run-up to Wednesday already, but instead, sellers are popping out from every grain of sand on the beach. On BTCT there's basically no buy support until 1.14-1.15, and if that falls, there's nothing down to 0.9. Meanwhile, the sell side is heavy just a few bitcents above last sale.
More or less same situation on Bitfunder, no buy support of consequence until 1.09ish, with solid support as low as 1.03-1.05. The auction subforum is heavy with sellers of fairly large quantities.
At these levels we're looking at a yield of 28% or more and that's before the new hash rate earnings come in! I know the Bitcoin community loves their risk and all, but almost 30% dividend from a company as solid as ASICMiner? You're not getting 1/10 of that from Apple or Microsoft.
What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
.b
PS: In case it's not bleeding obvious by now, I am an AM shareholder and I have an interest in seeing a high share price, but right now, I'm more interested in figuring out whether it's the world or me that's gone mad.
friedcat updates with fantastic news, stock prices on PT exchanges plummets. And by plummets, I mean a 10% drop in a week.
Volatility is fine, but except a slightly skeptical price reception on those bees, I have seen positive news only for the previous week. BFL is late as always, Avalon delayed, friedcat responding with perfection to inquiries (including mine)...
We should have started the weekly run-up to Wednesday already, but instead, sellers are popping out from every grain of sand on the beach. On BTCT there's basically no buy support until 1.14-1.15, and if that falls, there's nothing down to 0.9. Meanwhile, the sell side is heavy just a few bitcents above last sale.
More or less same situation on Bitfunder, no buy support of consequence until 1.09ish, with solid support as low as 1.03-1.05. The auction subforum is heavy with sellers of fairly large quantities.
At these levels we're looking at a yield of 28% or more and that's before the new hash rate earnings come in! I know the Bitcoin community loves their risk and all, but almost 30% dividend from a company as solid as ASICMiner? You're not getting 1/10 of that from Apple or Microsoft.
What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
.b
PS: In case it's not bleeding obvious by now, I am an AM shareholder and I have an interest in seeing a high share price, but right now, I'm more interested in figuring out whether it's the world or me that's gone mad.
I'm going to quote the Oracle of Omaha here, and let you come to your own decision.
Dec. 10, 2001: Warren Buffett on the stock market
"To refer to a personal taste of mine, I'm going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying -- except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore..."
Full quote here: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/
This isn't to complain... in fact, I think that buying in at the current rates is a pretty decent deal considering what they have in the pipeline for the future, and I consider investing at this undervaluation as a reward for performing diligent research on the company.
I hope you're right.
A BFL miner is what I bought when I was new to all this.
Suffering buyer's remorse I decided to do my due diligence afterwards, and that convinced me to cancel the order and put the proceeds into AM.
I guess if AM do as well as I think they might in a crazy way I'll have to thank BFL for scaring the bejeezus out of me.
On PTs until lately there was almost nobody willing to buy shares even at 0.5 btc... Meaning that; Selling 60 shares would have dropped the price to 0.01BTC , Right now 130 share drop the price to 0.01
You can value AM at more than 50m$ if you want but only handful of BTC agree with that.
Nobody know of ASICMINER*, You may think everything is all so well detailed in this thread but nothing is further from the truth.
This thread is a complete clusterfuck to anyone but a few dozens early shareholders.
There are board members but they must be either clueless or NDA quiet.
The update are coming drop by drop, lost in these 230 pages, it's as if the whole operation was run by Friedcat alone,,, How will that thing scale ?
*relatively speaking
You can value AM at more than 50m$ if you want but only handful of BTC agree with that.
Nobody know of ASICMINER*, You may think everything is all so well detailed in this thread but nothing is further from the truth.
This thread is a complete clusterfuck to anyone but a few dozens early shareholders.
There are board members but they must be either clueless or NDA quiet.
The update are coming drop by drop, lost in these 230 pages, it's as if the whole operation was run by Friedcat alone,,, How will that thing scale ?
*relatively speaking
This isn't to complain... in fact, I think that buying in at the current rates is a pretty decent deal considering what they have in the pipeline for the future, and I consider investing at this undervaluation as a reward for performing diligent research on the company.
I hope you're right.
A BFL miner is what I bought when I was new to all this.
Suffering buyer's remorse I decided to do my due diligence afterwards, and that convinced me to cancel the order and put the proceeds into AM.
I guess if AM do as well as I think they might in a crazy way I'll have to thank BFL for scaring the bejeezus out of me.
C'mon what's wrong with this picture?
friedcat updates with fantastic news, stock prices on PT exchanges plummets. And by plummets, I mean a 10% drop in a week.
Volatility is fine, but except a slightly skeptical price reception on those bees, I have seen positive news only for the previous week. BFL is late as always, Avalon delayed, friedcat responding with perfection to inquiries (including mine)...
We should have started the weekly run-up to Wednesday already, but instead, sellers are popping out from every grain of sand on the beach. On BTCT there's basically no buy support until 1.14-1.15, and if that falls, there's nothing down to 0.9. Meanwhile, the sell side is heavy just a few bitcents above last sale.
More or less same situation on Bitfunder, no buy support of consequence until 1.09ish, with solid support as low as 1.03-1.05. The auction subforum is heavy with sellers of fairly large quantities.
At these levels we're looking at a yield of 28% or more and that's before the new hash rate earnings come in! I know the Bitcoin community loves their risk and all, but almost 30% dividend from a company as solid as ASICMiner? You're not getting 1/10 of that from Apple or Microsoft.
What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
.b
PS: In case it's not bleeding obvious by now, I am an AM shareholder and I have an interest in seeing a high share price, but right now, I'm more interested in figuring out whether it's the world or me that's gone mad.
friedcat updates with fantastic news, stock prices on PT exchanges plummets. And by plummets, I mean a 10% drop in a week.
Volatility is fine, but except a slightly skeptical price reception on those bees, I have seen positive news only for the previous week. BFL is late as always, Avalon delayed, friedcat responding with perfection to inquiries (including mine)...
We should have started the weekly run-up to Wednesday already, but instead, sellers are popping out from every grain of sand on the beach. On BTCT there's basically no buy support until 1.14-1.15, and if that falls, there's nothing down to 0.9. Meanwhile, the sell side is heavy just a few bitcents above last sale.
More or less same situation on Bitfunder, no buy support of consequence until 1.09ish, with solid support as low as 1.03-1.05. The auction subforum is heavy with sellers of fairly large quantities.
At these levels we're looking at a yield of 28% or more and that's before the new hash rate earnings come in! I know the Bitcoin community loves their risk and all, but almost 30% dividend from a company as solid as ASICMiner? You're not getting 1/10 of that from Apple or Microsoft.
What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
.b
PS: In case it's not bleeding obvious by now, I am an AM shareholder and I have an interest in seeing a high share price, but right now, I'm more interested in figuring out whether it's the world or me that's gone mad.
I believe that part of this is due to the way information abouot the security is disseminated. There are some very strong indicators for long term success for the company, but many of the good pieces of information are buried deep within various forum threads which most potential investors aren't following. A centralized source of information that isn't tied up with commentators (eg, an 'announce' thread from AM or a prospectus as a living document) would go a long way towards providing up-to-date information about current operations and future plans for AM to stakeholders and potential stakeholders. If there is impacting news or updates, such as an ETA on new hashing power or other 'number' updates, the pass-through operators might also consider posting this on the exchanges in the form of a 'News' post associated with the passthrough (though admittedly, as a pass-through, they may wish to keep that news section solely for information specific to operating the passthrough and not about the AM company in general). I like the Google documents, particularly the one tracking the daily hashrate, but I think if this was presented as part of a whole package of information about the company that this would have a positive impact on stock price.
This isn't to complain... in fact, I think that buying in at the current rates is a pretty decent deal considering what they have in the pipeline for the future, and I consider investing at this undervaluation as a reward for performing diligent research on the company.
Probably for now, most people with BTC sitting around that would invest into ASICMINER have done so. Newer adopters to BTC are probably still coming to terms with the risk of holding BTC, let alone investing that btc into a security.
There are many barriers to entry, and it scares people off... All the better for those of us with no fear that poured our money into this. Lets hope this basket can hold my eggs, and keep them safe! because they are ALL in there.
There are many barriers to entry, and it scares people off... All the better for those of us with no fear that poured our money into this. Lets hope this basket can hold my eggs, and keep them safe! because they are ALL in there.
Just a rough estimate based off the last few blocks, but it looks like they are currently averaging ~.3BTC per block (just over 1% of the built-in reward). If transaction volume increases 10x in a year (definitely possible with growth), 3BTC per block becomes pretty significant.
Assuming that BTC transaction volume increases is a long shot. It's safer to assume that the granularity changes (i.e. more transactions with smaller BTC amounts) due to an increase in BTC price. Thus more transactions are needed to move the same amount of BTC, making transaction volume more valuable, and thus increasing the incentive to include a larger fee. What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
My thoughts:
- AM compete in a fixed reward market. ...
I hold a few AM but I don't think the price is going to the moon.
Miners are competing for about 4 million fixed BTC reward within the next 3-4 years. However, people usually forget to include the fees in that picture.
With increasing market adoption, the fees will make up a significant portion of the mining reward. And increasing the block size limit proportionally to the market adoption should only result in lowering the average fee per transaction, not the total reward from fees per block. It's hard to estimate what the equilibrium for the transaction fee reward will be. Right now we have a transaction volume of about 400,000k BTC per day which is about 2700 BTC per block on average. If you take a conservative estimate of 1% transaction fee you arrive at 27 BTC fee per block.
Thus the future mining income is likely to be considerably higher than 4 million BTC within the next 3-4 years and reward from fees will eventually outperform the fixed BTC reward. But it's hard to project the timeline of that development. Transaction fees is a market which is currently neglected by mining companies, but it will become more and more important as bitcoin matures.
Yes, I haven't forgotten about the fees, but to keep my post to a reasonable length I haven't considered them. Until they become significant it's probably closer to correct to ignore them rather than try to price them.
What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?
My thoughts:
- AM compete in a fixed reward market. ...
I hold a few AM but I don't think the price is going to the moon.
Miners are competing for about 4 million fixed BTC reward within the next 3-4 years. However, people usually forget to include the fees in that picture.
With increasing market adoption, the fees will make up a significant portion of the mining reward. And increasing the block size limit proportionally to the market adoption should only result in lowering the average fee per transaction, not the total reward from fees per block. It's hard to estimate what the equilibrium for the transaction fee reward will be. Right now we have a transaction volume of about 400,000k BTC per day which is about 2700 BTC per block on average. If you take a conservative estimate of 1% transaction fee you arrive at 27 BTC fee per block.
Thus the future mining income is likely to be considerably higher than 4 million BTC within the next 3-4 years and reward from fees will eventually outperform the fixed BTC reward. But it's hard to project the timeline of that development. Transaction fees is a market which is currently neglected by mining companies, but it will become more and more important as bitcoin matures.
This is a very good point. But there needs to be behavioral change to make transaction fees an expected thing with Bitcoin. Right now anyone handling more than a few coins can get free transactions processed as quickly as transactions with fees attached. MT. Gox in particular abuses this to not pay any fees to miners.
If you are solomining, this is easily addressed by reducing the size of the fee free pool in each block by adding the blockprioritysize parameter to bitcoin.conf. The default value is 27000 bytes.
Reducing the size of the free transaction pool until zero fee transactions take 4-5 hours to be accepted would be a good start on changing the culture. A major player who is about to begin solo mining might consider making a 1 line edit to help make that change happen.
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