I'm relatively new to Bitcointalk and very new to ASICMINER. I'm here because the research I've done (nowhere near as much as many of you but enough to convince me) suggests that ASICMINER, if it isn't already, is likely to be the 800-pound gorilla of Bitcoin mining, in the sense that this guy
http://www.geoffreyamoore.com/books-by-geoffrey-moore/ was talking about a few years ago.
I'm not an economist but one thing that has me intrigued is, as ASICMINER is valued (and I know its market value doesn't have to match its intrinsic value) in Bitcoin it is roughly 4% of the market cap of Bitcoin itself. If enough people agree however that ASICMINER is worth far more, how can that work? It can't be worth more than 100% of Bitcoin surely; that would be illogical, as Mr Spock would say.
So if a lot of other people see it as a gorilla and want to be a part of it, could the following happen?
- More people buy ASICMINER products, 'pump priming' the Bitcoin economy
- More people buy btc to invest in ASICMINER
- More transactions generated cause rewards for mining to increase
- More people are aware of Bitcoin and as they are using it they become comfortable using it and find other things to use it for
- The whole thing draws more people in and snowballs so that people who don't know anything about mining use Bitcoin the same way that they use Facebook or eBay today.
It's like a bootstrapped universe. People doing something with a small economic purpose in its own right (mining) end up attracting a flood of other users, until the 'universe' becomes large.
I guess what I'm saying is that over time, the market price of ASICMINER (denominated in btc) as a result will reach some equilibrium point, even as there is a flurry of activity in Bitcoin in general, but the price of btc to fiat will have to rise as a result to reflect the rising value of ASICMINER, assuming that it stays as the gorilla.
Feel free to give me a lesson on this, I would welcome one of you who's thought about this for longer than I have to tell me if I'm wrong.