Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1176. (Read 3917058 times)
As a reminder, my auction is over in little less than an hour: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/371-asicminer-shares-10-btc-minimum-bid-24-hour-179065
I wonder why is that happening. Anyway, it's possible that after today's update the price will skyrocket again 
unless Friedcat announces they are selling more blades, I doubt the price will rise very much. There doesn't seem to be anyone buying above the mid 80's. 
Trust me, I'm buying. 
I think you're the only one, looks like sell orders are dropping like crazy.
The price might be back to the 70's by Monday...
That would be awesome.
Trust me, I'm buying.
I think you're the only one, looks like sell orders are dropping like crazy.
The price might be back to the 70's by Monday...
I wonder why is that happening. Anyway, it's possible that after today's update the price will skyrocket again
Trust me, I'm buying.
I think you're the only one, looks like sell orders are dropping like crazy.
The price might be back to the 70's by Monday...
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Hm... Are you talking about the expected weekly update or did I miss another update somewhere?
.b
I was talking about the upcoming weekly update.
I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Trust me, I'm buying.
ygpm
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Hm... Are you talking about the expected weekly update or did I miss another update somewhere?
.b
Um... no that's not simple math, you are basing your math on the assumption that mining will only depend on block reward, which means mining will stop once block reward is negligible. That's simply false, if mining were to stop once block reward is negligible, then Bitcoin would have failed at that point, due to no network security.
It is expected that transaction fee will make up for block reward, we are already seeing average transaction fee of nearly 1 BTC per block as of now. Transaction fee will go higher as adoption grows.
Also you are not taking into account of blade miners and possibly USB miners that AM is currently selling at insanely high profit margins that will bring large and fast short term cash dividend to investors.
It is expected that transaction fee will make up for block reward, we are already seeing average transaction fee of nearly 1 BTC per block as of now. Transaction fee will go higher as adoption grows.
Also you are not taking into account of blade miners and possibly USB miners that AM is currently selling at insanely high profit margins that will bring large and fast short term cash dividend to investors.
I suggest you re-read what I wrote, my last sentence stated clearly my analysis excluded fees ie block fees and also sales from selling hardware devices ie new ASIC sticks or others.
Both of these are hard to forecast, as is the offsetting future costs of running the ASICs and the business overheads, which were similarly ignored for the purposes of the simple analysis.
I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Trust me, I'm buying.
Here's the simple maths of valuing ASICMiner:
There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.
The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.
Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.
There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.
The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.
Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.
Um... no that's not simple math, you are basing your math on the assumption that mining will only depend on block reward, which means mining will stop once block reward is negligible. That's simply false, if mining were to stop once block reward is negligible, then Bitcoin would have failed at that point, due to no network security.
It is expected that transaction fee will make up for block reward, we are already seeing average transaction fee of nearly 1 BTC per block as of now. Transaction fee will go higher as adoption grows.
Also you are not taking into account of blade miners and possibly USB miners that AM is currently selling at insanely high profit margins that will bring large and fast short term cash dividend to investors.
I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
there's no demand in the market. No one is buying, and everyone wants to sell.
Look at the orders on the exchanges, we're like 16 shares away from .85 on bitfunder. No one is taking sell orders, they just keep getting lower and lower.
There's decent support in the low .80's, the level we were at before the mini-bubble.
Already sold
Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.
Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.
yeah, I had some sell orders set at 1.3 at bitfunder. I had forgotten about those, they were put there when I first bought a few at .7
Lucky me, I made a few thousand $$$ on a mistake.
I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.
Depending on today's update, I strongly doubt it. I seriously hope that I'm wrong though, I'd kill for the opportunity to grab up more shares at that price.
Already sold
Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.
Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.
yeah, I had some sell orders set at 1.3 at bitfunder. I had forgotten about those, they were put there when I first bought a few at .7
Lucky me, I made a few thousand $$$ on a mistake.
I imagine we will all be able to buy these shares back at .85 by Monday.
and what if they kept 30% of the mining share?
Then it's be worth at least 3BTC per share right now.
From the above you can also see that the theoretical value is capped at 5BTC on the basis of a max 50% share.
Of course if there's another use for ASICs, like mining another coin, or selling the computational power to another type of user (military/commercial/financial) then there's more upside.
and what if they kept 30% of the mining share?
Then it's be worth at least 3BTC per share right now.
From the above you can also see that the theoretical value is capped at 5BTC on the basis of a max 50% share.
Of course if there's another use for ASICs, like mining another coin, or selling the computational power to another type of user (military/commercial/financial) then there's more upside.
Here's the simple maths of valuing ASICMiner:
There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.
The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.
Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.
and what if they kept 30% of the mining share? There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.
The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.
Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.
Here's the simple maths of valuing ASICMiner:
There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.
The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.
Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.
There are 10Mn BTC unmined approximately.
ASIC Miner have 400,000 shares.
If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period.
The question therefore is what hash-share can ASICMiner hit and maintain, if they can go well over 10% then they're a good buy.
Note all the above is very simple, since it excludes running costs for ASICMiner (incl electricity), but also excludes other sources of income such as fees and profits from selling devices.
looks like share price is dropping back down...
people selling while they can.
people selling while they can.
Already sold
Might be the only time I've ever timed this crap right. Make up for some sdice losses.
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