Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1198. (Read 3917543 times)
Any estimate for this week's divs?
Casinos have at worst a 51% attack on your money. Heh. But, in a practical world, what kind of double-spend scare does AM need to soothe the world perception from? My suspicion is that BFL is a total fail, and that AM needs to deploy right up to whatever the world deems safe, then sell hardware units, if there are any left over. How close to total hash power is too much for the health of BTC and AM?
But it needs also luck. 51% of hashrate is not enough to succesfully create longer blockchain.
At less than 50% you need luck, but at more than 50% it is guaranteed you will eventually overrun the blockchain. See graph on page 8 of https://bitcoil.co.il/Doublespend.pdf Currently, friedcat, with 10% of the network hashrate, has a 1 in 1000 chance of succeeding in a double spend, even if the recipient waits for 6 confirmations.
This whole 51% attack fear seems way overblown to me though. In order for one to succeed would you not need to convince someone to accept a zero-confirmations transaction, seconds after the attack was made? And then, run out of there like a bat out of hell?
No. A majority attack allows the attacker to recover his coins that were sent out and confirmed by multiple blocks.
But it needs also luck. 51% of hashrate is not enough to succesfully create longer blockchain.
It's like playing in a casino game with positive EV. Sure, with variance sometimes you might lose, but over time you will win more.
This whole 51% attack fear seems way overblown to me though. In order for one to succeed would you not need to convince someone to accept a zero-confirmations transaction, seconds after the attack was made? And then, run out of there like a bat out of hell?
No. A majority attack allows the attacker to recover his coins that were sent out and confirmed by multiple blocks.
But it needs also luck. 51% of hashrate is not enough to succesfully create longer blockchain.
This whole 51% attack fear seems way overblown to me though. In order for one to succeed would you not need to convince someone to accept a zero-confirmations transaction, seconds after the attack was made? And then, run out of there like a bat out of hell?
No. A majority attack allows the attacker to recover his coins that were sent out in transactions confirmed by multiple blocks. This is pretty much the ultimate blow to confidence in Bitcoin.
With that said, it is not in friedcat's financial interest to perform such attacks, as it would undermine the validity of his own Bitcoin wealth.
It is a strange world where we need to be cognizant not only of total hash% but also total hash% in one pool. So, if we now have total hash% of 10%, and the proposed deployment of AM is going to add 20Th.. giving us 30%+... You see where I am going in the thinking.
It is a fine line to deploy, especially if BFL continues to fall on its face; although given that their pre-sales were in $USD at what amounts to a gift price at the current BTC/USD rate... well, I'd seriously be surprised if any of those BFL units ever actually ship. They priced in 90% depreciated $USD at current exchange rates, and now have every motivation to mine in secret with that hardware.
This whole 51% attack fear seems way overblown to me though. In order for one to succeed would you not need to convince someone to accept a zero-confirmations transaction, seconds after the attack was made? And then, run out of there like a bat out of hell?
It is a fine line to deploy, especially if BFL continues to fall on its face; although given that their pre-sales were in $USD at what amounts to a gift price at the current BTC/USD rate... well, I'd seriously be surprised if any of those BFL units ever actually ship. They priced in 90% depreciated $USD at current exchange rates, and now have every motivation to mine in secret with that hardware.
This whole 51% attack fear seems way overblown to me though. In order for one to succeed would you not need to convince someone to accept a zero-confirmations transaction, seconds after the attack was made? And then, run out of there like a bat out of hell?
how can i invest here? and is this working now?
I have 175 direct ASICMINER shares for sale here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/for-sale-175-asicminer-shares-075-btc-all-sold-171800
And yes, this is working now. You can see our current hash rate (the big one) here:
http://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=rankings
hi thanks for answering my questioin.. is there a site that can i buy lower asicminer share price?
haha, if there is, be sure to tell me about it!! You can buy shares in ASICMINER passthroughs for ~0.75 - 0.8 BTC on bitfunder.com and btct.co, but educate yourself on the potential additional terms, costs, and liabilities before you do.
There is also this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=0
how can i invest here? and is this working now?
I have 175 direct ASICMINER shares for sale here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/for-sale-175-asicminer-shares-075-btc-all-sold-171800
And yes, this is working now. You can see our current hash rate (the big one) here:
http://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=rankings
hi thanks for answering my questioin.. is there a site that can i buy lower asicminer share price?
When exactly the 50TH will be plugged?
Just did some figurin, those who bought an ASICMINER board seat (5000 shares) at IPO turned $6500 USD in to nearly a million dollars, if they sold today. Not bad for eight months. Kudos to those who did.
The recent rise just leaves me in shock and awe.
we had it coming for two years now. but I agree, preparing for take off is different from actually doing it.Bleeding money from extremely volatile assets to more reliable assets on a predictable schedule is usually the prudent thing to do. It's all about opportunity costs. However, the current policy to pay high dividends delegates that financial planning to shareholders to a large degree.
My greed clouds my judgement, so in a way, it would be somewhat a relief to have someone else making the decisions about hedging. Part of me really wants to believe that the buyers of BTC are not casual speculators that will develop cold feet and panic sell in a drop, but instead are using their BTC for actual transactions The recent rise just leaves me in shock and awe.
@Franktank... if it means that we have less Bitcoins at the end i would say youre right... but if it doesnt mean to lose anything but to get some extra income i think it really should be considered. I mean if its really so much like it sounds then the transaction fees for bitcoins are peanuts compared to it... merged mining would bring in way more on top.
And while friedcat has problems with the power supply and network so that deployment stops it would be a good thing to consider now when there cant be done much other things.
And while friedcat has problems with the power supply and network so that deployment stops it would be a good thing to consider now when there cant be done much other things.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for bigger dividends. I'll say that I only have a very general understanding of mining and lesser on altcoin mining but it would require some effort (ranging from a single click of a button to dedicating resources and manpower). For now, I would rather have all efforts focused on increasing hashrate and maintaining it but I'm sure friedcat could address it in a future update if the demand is there.
Just my two 0.02BTC
Have any of the Board members been analyzing this? (I am not asking for details, but I am just curious if there has been discussion)
ASICMINER raised funds in BTC, earns BTC, pays dividends in BTC, shares are quoted in BTC, and if/when selling boards will be for BTC.
Apart from the (increasingly small) fixed costs (electricity, rents, wafers, etc.) which may be in USD (but more likely CNY) why does the USD/BTC exchange rate move matter for anything? (Apart from making this investment look increasingly valuable relative to other real world companies.)
I don't think hedging USD (much) should be something management should be doing. But it may be something individual shareholders might want to do.
The recent staggering run-up in BTC relative to $USD makes conventional analysis very difficult. When hardware is ultimately sold for BTC, for example, how much, if any, of the proceeds should be converted and held as a hedge against the possibility (probability?) that this is a bubble? Makes my head hurt... And, having an investment arm of AM is surely a distraction the principals don't really or should take on as additional responsibility.
Have any of the Board members been analyzing this? (I am not asking for details, but I am just curious if there has been discussion)
What you describe is usually the job of the CFO. It's a good question and certainly deserves more attention. I don't know whether friedcat has delegated that task from the leadership team to a single person by now. IIRC up to now company policy was to keep as much money in BTC as possible and as much money in fiat as necessary, for the obvious reasons... Have any of the Board members been analyzing this? (I am not asking for details, but I am just curious if there has been discussion)
The recent staggering run-up in BTC relative to $USD makes conventional analysis very difficult. When hardware is ultimately sold for BTC, for example, how much, if any, of the proceeds should be converted and held as a hedge against the possibility (probability?) that this is a bubble? Makes my head hurt... And, having an investment arm of AM is surely a distraction the principals don't really or should take on as additional responsibility.
Have any of the Board members been analyzing this? (I am not asking for details, but I am just curious if there has been discussion)
Have any of the Board members been analyzing this? (I am not asking for details, but I am just curious if there has been discussion)
The financials of ASICMINER are pretty opaque ( 
) however I'm thinking that the recent run-up in the price of bitcoin should be a good thing for the size of the dividends.
My logic is that most if not all expenses are in fiat. Increasing exchange rate means less bitcoins need to be converted to fiat to pay bills (electricity, rent, hardware costs etc), leaving more for dividend payments.
Would be awesome if we had more detailed financials.
) however I'm thinking that the recent run-up in the price of bitcoin should be a good thing for the size of the dividends.My logic is that most if not all expenses are in fiat. Increasing exchange rate means less bitcoins need to be converted to fiat to pay bills (electricity, rent, hardware costs etc), leaving more for dividend payments.
Would be awesome if we had more detailed financials.
+1
We have reached such a financial impact here that all investors deserve to get a full financial report.
The financials of ASICMINER are pretty opaque ( ) however I'm thinking that the recent run-up in the price of bitcoin should be a good thing for the size of the dividends.
My logic is that most if not all expenses are in fiat. Increasing exchange rate means less bitcoins need to be converted to fiat to pay bills (electricity, rent, hardware costs etc), leaving more for dividend payments.
Would be awesome if we had more detailed financials.
) however I'm thinking that the recent run-up in the price of bitcoin should be a good thing for the size of the dividends.My logic is that most if not all expenses are in fiat. Increasing exchange rate means less bitcoins need to be converted to fiat to pay bills (electricity, rent, hardware costs etc), leaving more for dividend payments.
Would be awesome if we had more detailed financials.
It implies that mining bitcoins with namecoins can give 13% more earnings. I wonder if thats true but if yes, then it would be a not small loss. Too bad that its not possible with stratum.
Merged mining NMC would provide 5.5% additional profit according to http://dustcoin.com/mining
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