Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 658. (Read 3917468 times)
October 15, 2013, 03:36:19 PM
I even recall FC saying he is willing to accept single digit revenue annually.. this doesn't seem too hard to do if you just invest it into something else, no need to keep trying to build your own shit. Hell, buy some VMC machines
October 15, 2013, 03:27:57 PM
AM should just buy up some equity in cointerra since they are open to selling off equity. owning like 5%-10% may be a good investment for long term.
October 15, 2013, 01:34:53 PM
Looking to borrow 100 ASICMiner shares for no more than 6 months at 50% yearly interest.
I am looking for someone to borrow 100 ASICMiner shares from. Either direct shares or shares on Havelock. I really want to borrow them from a single person, if possible.
I will be paying 50% annualized interest every week on the total value of the shares at the purchase date, according to Havelock. Interest will be paid once every week to an address of your choosing.
If you try 796,things would be much easier.The finacing and margin trade of 796 is exactly what you want except the period(the longest period is 4 weeks and the lowest weekly interest rate is 0.2% which is much lower than you offers)I am looking for someone to borrow 100 ASICMiner shares from. Either direct shares or shares on Havelock. I really want to borrow them from a single person, if possible.
I will be paying 50% annualized interest every week on the total value of the shares at the purchase date, according to Havelock. Interest will be paid once every week to an address of your choosing.
If you are interested,try the link in my signature or just the link below http://union.796.com/link/redirect/100029?f=word
October 15, 2013, 01:13:35 PM
Wrong. You must be in ASICminer, or a Board Member at least. I was here 16+ hours a day, with multiple alerts set, grasping every public info what i could get... it didnt help... I am short of ~40 000 Euro now. I was wondering why boardmembers were selling thousands of shares when they were 2.5-5.0. Now i know. We simple didn't have an inside info, that ASICminer is mining at full capacity at 47Ghs in first datacenter and that ASICminer is not planning to increase hashrate for several months... with this info it would be easy to make market decisions and NOT lost money.
Not true.
There were some people (Vycid most prominently) who spent a lot of time shouting that AM had got very over-valued. I was saying sell back in July....
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2633510
Shares we're over-valued then even with a decent share of hash-rate, that was only ever going to decline. Basic maths said 4-5 was over-priced but no-one wanted to listen..... great short-term dividend week by week DOES NOT equal long-term future...
October 15, 2013, 12:21:47 PM
Reposted to show validity of the assumption. Original post August 31,2013. How much was AM worth back then?
"The models for a deflationary currency are really not as established as inflationary, so people tend to not really understand the differences. When the value of a unit of currency is continually rising, one of the best investments will always be buy the currency and hold. This is because the prices of everything as priced in the defationary currency will continuously drop, as opposed to always rising as in an inflationary currency. You can get more for the same unit of currency next week than you can by spending it this week. Savers get wealthier every day by doing nothing.
In an inflationary currency the opposite is true. The only way that your currency can be out there working for you is if you exchange it for something else. You must hold an asset, such as land, commodities, equities, bonds, anything that will generate an additional cash flow to at least compensate for the lost value of holding the currency. Infaltionary currency was designed to be spent, and deflationary currency is designed to be held.
Equities are not immune to this fundamental feature of a deflationary currency. If a stock costs 1 btc and the value of btc doubles, all things being equal the stock price should move to 0.5 btc. This is a simple concept that everyone should agree upon. The problem once again, is that you went nowhere. Had you held btc your wealth would have doubled. But since you are holding an asset, you gained nothing. This is fundamentally true in a deflationary currency system. You see this problem every day when people purchase asic miners, although it is overshadowed by difficulty increases.
The deflation is like and endless juggernaut, it never stops, and the base prices of everything priced in it must by definition drop and drop and drop. Market fluctuations and speculation can mask it for a time, but in the end it is relentless as gravity and it will reign supreme eventually.
Equities can certainly counteract this effect, by the inherent creation of value by the underlying company. A company may for example cost 1btc per share, and return 0.01 btc per week. This is enough to account for a 1% per week increase in the value of btc. If you purchase this stock for 1btc, hold it for a week, get your dividend, and the value of btc increases by 1% you are exactly where you would have been if you had just held btc, because the value of the stock should have decreased in a rational market by 1%.
Rumors, announcements, FUD, competition, momentum, perception,these things can also affect price. They can cause big moves and make everything look crazy to an analyst trying to sort it out. But working steadily and continuously in the background the gravity that is deflation will eat the value from any held asset. Even an asset such as ASICminer. In infaltionary currency, any asset that is not increasing in value is dead money. In a deflationary currency, an asset that that is not decreasing in value is a win, and if it rises at all you have really really really done well.
So, in conclusion, any equity that can consistently provide dividends to the shareholder at at rate that exceeds the rate of increase in the currency is better than just buying coins and holding. If it cannot, it needs to be taken out in the yard and shot because you are losing value every day you hold it."
"The models for a deflationary currency are really not as established as inflationary, so people tend to not really understand the differences. When the value of a unit of currency is continually rising, one of the best investments will always be buy the currency and hold. This is because the prices of everything as priced in the defationary currency will continuously drop, as opposed to always rising as in an inflationary currency. You can get more for the same unit of currency next week than you can by spending it this week. Savers get wealthier every day by doing nothing.
In an inflationary currency the opposite is true. The only way that your currency can be out there working for you is if you exchange it for something else. You must hold an asset, such as land, commodities, equities, bonds, anything that will generate an additional cash flow to at least compensate for the lost value of holding the currency. Infaltionary currency was designed to be spent, and deflationary currency is designed to be held.
Equities are not immune to this fundamental feature of a deflationary currency. If a stock costs 1 btc and the value of btc doubles, all things being equal the stock price should move to 0.5 btc. This is a simple concept that everyone should agree upon. The problem once again, is that you went nowhere. Had you held btc your wealth would have doubled. But since you are holding an asset, you gained nothing. This is fundamentally true in a deflationary currency system. You see this problem every day when people purchase asic miners, although it is overshadowed by difficulty increases.
The deflation is like and endless juggernaut, it never stops, and the base prices of everything priced in it must by definition drop and drop and drop. Market fluctuations and speculation can mask it for a time, but in the end it is relentless as gravity and it will reign supreme eventually.
Equities can certainly counteract this effect, by the inherent creation of value by the underlying company. A company may for example cost 1btc per share, and return 0.01 btc per week. This is enough to account for a 1% per week increase in the value of btc. If you purchase this stock for 1btc, hold it for a week, get your dividend, and the value of btc increases by 1% you are exactly where you would have been if you had just held btc, because the value of the stock should have decreased in a rational market by 1%.
Rumors, announcements, FUD, competition, momentum, perception,these things can also affect price. They can cause big moves and make everything look crazy to an analyst trying to sort it out. But working steadily and continuously in the background the gravity that is deflation will eat the value from any held asset. Even an asset such as ASICminer. In infaltionary currency, any asset that is not increasing in value is dead money. In a deflationary currency, an asset that that is not decreasing in value is a win, and if it rises at all you have really really really done well.
So, in conclusion, any equity that can consistently provide dividends to the shareholder at at rate that exceeds the rate of increase in the currency is better than just buying coins and holding. If it cannot, it needs to be taken out in the yard and shot because you are losing value every day you hold it."
October 15, 2013, 12:04:02 PM
yes, FC promised at financial statement on the 20th. That is only 5 days out.
October 15, 2013, 11:59:32 AM
I think that selling miners currently is probably more profitable than mining, although I have the impression we are missing out on quite a bit of bitcoins. But there is no way (for me) to judge how ASICMINER is actually fairing as long as dividends are being withheld and no statement on financials.
That is: Maybe we are actually still making quite a bit, but nobody really knows about it. I have a feeling that the Gen-1 boards are still in high demand, even though they are inefficient, just because of better $/Gh
Someone side that 20th of this month ,AM will be issuing its new financial statement, you may get useful information by that time. That is: Maybe we are actually still making quite a bit, but nobody really knows about it. I have a feeling that the Gen-1 boards are still in high demand, even though they are inefficient, just because of better $/Gh
October 15, 2013, 11:43:06 AM
I think that selling miners currently is probably more profitable than mining, although I have the impression we are missing out on quite a bit of bitcoins. But there is no way (for me) to judge how ASICMINER is actually fairing as long as dividends are being withheld and no statement on financials.
That is: Maybe we are actually still making quite a bit, but nobody really knows about it. I have a feeling that the Gen-1 boards are still in high demand, even though they are inefficient, just because of better $/Gh
That is: Maybe we are actually still making quite a bit, but nobody really knows about it. I have a feeling that the Gen-1 boards are still in high demand, even though they are inefficient, just because of better $/Gh
October 15, 2013, 11:40:51 AM
I'd also like to add that unless you have time to follow the developements multiple times a day, you should instead get a broker that manages it, if you really want to invest something.
Wrong. You must be in ASICminer, or a Board Member at least. I was here 16+ hours a day, with multiple alerts set, grasping every public info what i could get... it didnt help... I am short of ~40 000 Euro now. I was wondering why boardmembers were selling thousands of shares when they were 2.5-5.0. Now i know. We simple didn't have an inside info, that ASICminer is mining at full capacity at 47Ghs in first datacenter and that ASICminer is not planning to increase hashrate for several months... with this info it would be easy to make market decisions and NOT lost money.
October 15, 2013, 10:22:35 AM
I guess there's little point in selling now anyway, so for now I'll just keep holding and hoping.
Lesson learned: investment is not a game for casual amateurs.
+1Lesson learned: investment is not a game for casual amateurs.
I'd also like to add that unless you have time to follow the developements multiple times a day, you should instead get a broker that manages it, if you really want to invest something.
October 15, 2013, 09:48:29 AM
I think it should be simply a price that maximizes profit. Selling more for a lower price or selling less for a higher price. Something in between. Asicminer cant change the buyers behaviour. If they dont buy here they buy elsewhere. And it doesnt matter how much preorders are floating around. Thats something the buyers seems not to consider.
To maximize profit is to set the price (at least) as high as possible for the product to still be selling in whatever volume is being produced. I'm a genius.
Thats correct for the moment. The price wont drop lower than the potential income from self mining. The demand ist simply too high. I sold my bitburner through a backward auction. And i think that might be a good way here too. Dropping the price per miner a bit for each hour. So you can ensure the miners are sold and you most probably get the best price you can get. Asicminer can ship instantly too. So i think thats a good way to get the best profit.
October 15, 2013, 09:28:33 AM
I think it should be simply a price that maximizes profit. Selling more for a lower price or selling less for a higher price. Something in between. Asicminer cant change the buyers behaviour. If they dont buy here they buy elsewhere. And it doesnt matter how much preorders are floating around. Thats something the buyers seems not to consider.
To maximize profit is to set the price (at least) as high as possible for the product to still be selling in whatever volume is being produced. I'm a genius.
October 15, 2013, 08:02:13 AM
cross-post because the discussion of pricing hardware is also relevant for ASICMINER (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3339723)
a) Miners are taking to much risk when valuing the hash power at the "edge", i.e. close to the expected yield. Exponential rise causes slight timing and projection errors to easily cause the profitability to fluctuate between -70% - +200%.
b) Companies have an incentive to engage in mining activities to make their R&D back, which creates a vacuum for the sales and at the same time depreciates the expected yield. Just look at ghash.io. I don't know whether the size of that farm was anticipated.
The pricing scheme for hash power is the big issue here, not its yield. Given point a), failure to price correctly causes either the miner to make a huge loss or profit. This needs to change and the first companies who can create a scheme which works for miners and companies alike will be the innovators here.
A good pricing scheme has two features:
i) it removes the risk/unknowns effects of network growth projections on the profitability of mining (operational profit certainty)
ii) it instantly shows whether the miner is willing to mine for profit or for loss (declaration of intent)
Unless i) and ii) are fixed, all missed projections will cause the ASIC companies to look fraudulent, since it causes a net wealth transfer from the mining community towards the ASIC producers.
On that note it may be interesting to establish a shareholder sentiment on the pricing strategy for ASICMINER hardware, between
a) aggressive (maximizing profits)
b) fair/honest
c) competitive (undercutting competition)
Maybe someone would want to organize a poll?
All ASIC companies are pushing out too many chips too fast. 3600 coins per day is just not enough to spread around for the amount of money people have dumped into hardware costs. There are too many people involved. Too much greed by ASIC manufacturers. And too many chips. It would be far more wise to get refunds and buy btc directly. The reward for mining is in the hands of the elite now. Even people that dumped in 5-6 figures are in trouble unless they just bought chips. You need to be capable of making your own PCB's for as cheap as possible now.
The problem is not that they produce chips too fast. It's their valuation/pricing. Free market valuation of hash power tends to be above expected yield (i.e. a net loss for the miner) for two reasons:a) Miners are taking to much risk when valuing the hash power at the "edge", i.e. close to the expected yield. Exponential rise causes slight timing and projection errors to easily cause the profitability to fluctuate between -70% - +200%.
b) Companies have an incentive to engage in mining activities to make their R&D back, which creates a vacuum for the sales and at the same time depreciates the expected yield. Just look at ghash.io. I don't know whether the size of that farm was anticipated.
The pricing scheme for hash power is the big issue here, not its yield. Given point a), failure to price correctly causes either the miner to make a huge loss or profit. This needs to change and the first companies who can create a scheme which works for miners and companies alike will be the innovators here.
A good pricing scheme has two features:
i) it removes the risk/unknowns effects of network growth projections on the profitability of mining (operational profit certainty)
ii) it instantly shows whether the miner is willing to mine for profit or for loss (declaration of intent)
Unless i) and ii) are fixed, all missed projections will cause the ASIC companies to look fraudulent, since it causes a net wealth transfer from the mining community towards the ASIC producers.
On that note it may be interesting to establish a shareholder sentiment on the pricing strategy for ASICMINER hardware, between
a) aggressive (maximizing profits)
b) fair/honest
c) competitive (undercutting competition)
Maybe someone would want to organize a poll?
I think it should be simply a price that maximizes profit. Selling more for a lower price or selling less for a higher price. Something in between. Asicminer cant change the buyers behaviour. If they dont buy here they buy elsewhere. And it doesnt matter how much preorders are floating around. Thats something the buyers seems not to consider.
October 15, 2013, 03:26:25 AM
Possible they might just be observing the network growth and determining efficiency
4.75 Years for 1 and a month for 2
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-doubles-2-phs-four-weeks-first-1-phs-took-4-7-years
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3339745
Jutrauls post +1
4.75 Years for 1 and a month for 2
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-doubles-2-phs-four-weeks-first-1-phs-took-4-7-years
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3339745
Jutrauls post +1
One more week and it will be 3 PH/s.
Things I can measure in petahashes
Ponders bitcoin
(Hard pressed to think of something else lol)
http://blog.standardcrypto.com/2013/09/15/what-does-one-petahash-look-like/
That said now it is now equivalent to two Wilshire-sized data centers filled with Blades
October 15, 2013, 03:17:08 AM
Possible they might just be observing the network growth and determining efficiency
4.75 Years for 1 and a month for 2
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-doubles-2-phs-four-weeks-first-1-phs-took-4-7-years
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3339745
Jutrauls post +1
4.75 Years for 1 and a month for 2
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-doubles-2-phs-four-weeks-first-1-phs-took-4-7-years
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3339745
Jutrauls post +1
One more week and it will be 3 PH/s.
October 15, 2013, 03:09:50 AM
I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but it appears AM is no longer making gen1 USB block eruptors (and maybe blades but the phrasing isn't clear and I was expecting 500GH at some point). According to BTC Guild production of gen 1 has stopped:
Block Erupter Price Cuts / Blades Sold Out
USB Block Erupters have recently experienced another price cut, now at 0.12 BTC (free shipping within US). ASICMINER is stopping the production of new units, so remaining inventory is limited. ASICMINER Blades have now completely sold out as well.
October 10th, 2013
https://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=home
Edit: Could gen2 be sooner than we think?
Block Erupter Price Cuts / Blades Sold Out
USB Block Erupters have recently experienced another price cut, now at 0.12 BTC (free shipping within US). ASICMINER is stopping the production of new units, so remaining inventory is limited. ASICMINER Blades have now completely sold out as well.
October 10th, 2013
https://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=home
Edit: Could gen2 be sooner than we think?
Possible they might just be observing the network growth and determining efficiency
4.75 Years for 1 and a month for 2
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-doubles-2-phs-four-weeks-first-1-phs-took-4-7-years
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3339745
Jutrauls post +1
October 15, 2013, 02:35:22 AM
Looking to borrow 100 ASICMiner shares for no more than 6 months at 50% yearly interest.
I am looking for someone to borrow 100 ASICMiner shares from. Either direct shares or shares on Havelock. I really want to borrow them from a single person, if possible.
I will be paying 50% annualized interest every week on the total value of the shares at the purchase date, according to Havelock. Interest will be paid once every week to an address of your choosing.
If you try 796,things would be much easier.The finacing and margin trade of 796 is exactly what you want except the period(the longest period is 4 weeks and the lowest weekly interest rate is 0.2% which is much lower than you offers)I am looking for someone to borrow 100 ASICMiner shares from. Either direct shares or shares on Havelock. I really want to borrow them from a single person, if possible.
I will be paying 50% annualized interest every week on the total value of the shares at the purchase date, according to Havelock. Interest will be paid once every week to an address of your choosing.
If you are interested,try the link in my signature or just the link below http://union.796.com/link/redirect/100029?f=word
October 15, 2013, 02:25:38 AM
I got heavily burnt on AsicMiner shares.
I'll buy next batch only if the price goes below 0.02, which means I can dramatically lower my average cost.
I'll buy next batch only if the price goes below 0.02, which means I can dramatically lower my average cost.
October 15, 2013, 02:16:24 AM
If you take the time to sift through friedcat's last few posts the message is rather clear - the "designs" they were looking into were not fruitful and they are doing research again on new designs after they decided to hire staff. From this point on you're not investing for dividends, which are going to be lost in a sea of miners coming online, but in a company.
Now there's 2 years salary for them to look into new designs and one month of fabrication (witholdings on past divs the past two months).
Time to hibernate guys - will come out when the sun shines on the cat again...
Now there's 2 years salary for them to look into new designs and one month of fabrication (witholdings on past divs the past two months).
Time to hibernate guys - will come out when the sun shines on the cat again...
October 15, 2013, 01:21:46 AM
Probably because it isn't online yet, i'm sure if it was they would send to found blocks to their mining address so everybody can see, which is conceivably why they send the franchise payments there.. you can't see it because it hasn't happened.
Don't know if http://erpao.info is official, but it still reports 47 TH/s (in solo mining).
It is the unofficial but accurate record.
It seems the hash rate in the new data center, which should increase 3-5TH daily according to friedcat, is not included in this stat yet?
This 3-5th daily that friedcat was talking about was misinterpreted.Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?
Don't know if http://erpao.info is official, but it still reports 47 TH/s (in solo mining).
It is the unofficial but accurate record.
It seems the hash rate in the new data center, which should increase 3-5TH daily according to friedcat, is not included in this stat yet?
It's not being added daily, he was just showing the split of where the ~60th comes from. 3-5th=variance in reliability(i think)
Hopefully soon more hash will come online though.
Maybe one of these days he will stick around for a few minutes after an update to prevent misinterpretations like this..
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