ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 662.

BitThink

legendary

Activity: 882

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Quote from: velacreations on October 12, 2013, 10:04:58 AM

Quote from: Endlessa on October 12, 2013, 09:58:50 AM

Not necessarily true, the usb miner was attractive for people for several reasons. The product was in-hand, relatively cheap, allowed people to experiment with little risk and there was a frenzy to get some kind of hardware. It was the only thing available without long pre-order wait times. That window has closed/is closing now. There is going to need to be more competitive reasons for purchase in the future.

cost/gh will be/is the driving factor for a significant portion of the market.

The problem now is the USB price has to be lowered down several times and still on stock but the blader sold out quickly. Apparently the majority revenue and profit comes from the serious buyers, and this becomes more and more true after the difficulty increases further. For them, power efficiency and hash rate density is essencial.

Endlessa

sr. member

Activity: 335

Merit: 250

Quote from: velacreations on October 12, 2013, 10:04:58 AM

Quote from: Endlessa on October 12, 2013, 09:58:50 AM

Not necessarily true, the usb miner was attractive for people for several reasons. The product was in-hand, relatively cheap, allowed people to experiment with little risk and there was a frenzy to get some kind of hardware. It was the only thing available without long pre-order wait times. That window has closed/is closing now. There is going to need to be more competitive reasons for purchase in the future.

cost/gh will be/is the driving factor for a significant portion of the market.

correct

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Endlessa on October 12, 2013, 09:58:50 AM

Not necessarily true, the usb miner was attractive for people for several reasons. The product was in-hand, relatively cheap, allowed people to experiment with little risk and there was a frenzy to get some kind of hardware. It was the only thing available without long pre-order wait times. That window has closed/is closing now. There is going to need to be more competitive reasons for purchase in the future.

cost/gh will be/is the driving factor for a significant portion of the market.

Endlessa

sr. member

Activity: 335

Merit: 250

Quote from: velacreations on October 12, 2013, 09:38:04 AM

Quote from: Endlessa on October 12, 2013, 09:24:47 AM

this industry is all about power consumption and GH density. . .

if that was the case, no one would have ever bought a USB miner.

Not necessarily true, the usb miner was attractive for people for several reasons. The product was in-hand, relatively cheap, allowed people to experiment with little risk and there was a frenzy to get some kind of hardware. It was the only thing available without long pre-order wait times. That window has closed/is closing now. There is going to need to be more competitive reasons for purchase in the future.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Endlessa on October 12, 2013, 09:24:47 AM

this industry is all about power consumption and GH density. . .

if that was the case, no one would have ever bought a USB miner.

Endlessa

sr. member

Activity: 335

Merit: 250

Quote from: velacreations on October 12, 2013, 09:09:50 AM

if you have a device that uses 28nm chips that is priced at $5/gh and another company is selling devices using 45nm priced at $3/gh, what makes you think the market won't buy the 45nm devices?

At this point in the mining game chip tech takes a back seat to cost.

The smaller chip will always have a lower production cost per gh. . .and will have lower power consumption (which will become relevant sometime in feb). After the manufacturer covers their setup costs, which probably happens in the first month or so with the way the current hardware frenzy is going, it will be easy for them under cut the larger chips. Think about it this way. .. .

I can put 1 chip on a board that does 250 gh/s per chip with a small die. or I can put 100 2.5 gh/s chips on a board and get 250 gh/s. the reduction in the size of PCB, supporting hardware, assembly time/labor, power supply, cooling fans, etc. will make the smaller single chip have much lower costs to produce than the larger one. In the short term the larger chip will have a faster time to market and cheaper setup costs, but the smaller chip will compete better in the long term game. Now, in the past AM was first to market, so they got good leverage on the larger chips, but now smaller chips than their current target are already shipping, so that advantage has already been lost. Going to market with a larger chip is extremely risky, especially since this industry is all about power consumption and GH density. . . imo

Hope that helps explain why

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

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Quote from: BitThink on October 12, 2013, 09:18:17 AM

The watt/G also plays a role. Suppose the 28nm takes 1w/g and 45nm 2w/g and I have a data center with 300kw power supply. With 28nm I can hash at 300T but only 150T with 45nm. So price is important but power efficiency also affects my choice.

it depends on what sector of the market you are talking about. W/gh has not been a major factor for small miners (under 10 TH) so far. It may become more important in the future, but right now, cost/gh is significantly more important.

Basically, older tech can co-exist with newer tech, as long as they give a price advantage to certain sectors of the market.

BitThink

legendary

Activity: 882

Merit: 1000

Quote from: velacreations on October 12, 2013, 09:09:50 AM

if you have a device that uses 28nm chips that is priced at $5/gh and another company is selling devices using 45nm priced at $3/gh, what makes you think the market won't buy the 45nm devices?

At this point in the mining game chip tech takes a back seat to cost.

The watt/G also plays a role. Suppose the 28nm takes 1w/g and 45nm 2w/g and I have a data center with 300kw power supply. With 28nm I can hash at 300T but only 150T with 45nm. So price is important but power efficiency also affects my choice.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

if you have a device that uses 28nm chips that is priced at $5/gh and another company is selling devices using 45nm priced at $3/gh, what makes you think the market won't buy the 45nm devices?

At this point in the mining game chip tech takes a back seat to cost.

VolanicEruptor

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

That's great, but our expectations should now be cut in 4x since the price dropped 4x.
They only need to pull off 1/4th of their original targets for some healthy divs.

*sings: lowwwwered expectations!!*

Endlessa

sr. member

Activity: 335

Merit: 250

Quote from: coldguy on October 11, 2013, 11:20:03 PM

Quote from: BitThink on October 11, 2013, 10:17:05 PM

Really risky to buy in when there's no solid info about the Gen2 chips.

Moreover, before buying, make sure you have considered the risk that Cointerra may be successful in their 22nm chips and sell hardware at $3/GH on Jan 2014. I believe AM will survive next year, but not likely to have the same advantage as this year. You could look at AM's price at early this year when they were clearly the first ASIC miner, and then predict its price when they don't have advantage anymore now.

high return involves high risk, which is always the case.

It is true that there is no positive information about the gen2 chips. All we know is friedcat and his team are working hard on that. Based on what they have achieved this year, pay 0.9BTC/share to buy/risk/gamble/invest(whatever you call it) its success, is a good deal or not? You have to make your own choice.

It's difficult imo for AM to compete and recoop the dev costs of a new production line for several reasons:

* The smaller the chip size the larger the R&D/setup costs for production
* The currently expressed chip size will be undesirable to the market given that better alternatives are currently shipping
* The previous customer base hasn't/will not be re-cooping the cost of their previous expenditures on AM products and will not have much desire to spend on more
* If they do produce the expressed target chip size they will be at a cost disadvantage in what is soon to be a very tight profit margin squeeze for the industry

So then we have mining. . . AM has shown a propensity to not be able deploy and keep up with the network hashrate. aside from the beginning when it was easy, I have not seen them show the capability of reaching their target goals on hashrate. Each time, the target mining hashrate was met hugely late or missed completely.

Now, you can get all butt hurt and tell yourself I'm trolling, and I couldn't care less, but anybody new coming into this needs realize these shares should be entered into with trepidation and are not necessarily "discounted" for unfounded reasons.

g' luck all and happy trading

heropzy

member

Activity: 83

Merit: 10

Hurry up, AM.

Strange Vlad

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: webbrowser on October 12, 2013, 12:20:51 AM

I wonder, does the board have more info than the public, or exactly the same info?

Of course they have access to more info. But I don't think they tell us less than we need to know.

VolanicEruptor

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: webbrowser on October 12, 2013, 12:20:51 AM

I wonder, does the board have more info than the public, or exactly the same info?

It's impossible to know the answer to that.

webbrowser

full member

Activity: 215

Merit: 100

I wonder, does the board have more info than the public, or exactly the same info?

coldguy

member

Activity: 69

Merit: 10

Quote from: BitThink on October 11, 2013, 10:17:05 PM

Really risky to buy in when there's no solid info about the Gen2 chips.

Moreover, before buying, make sure you have considered the risk that Cointerra may be successful in their 22nm chips and sell hardware at $3/GH on Jan 2014. I believe AM will survive next year, but not likely to have the same advantage as this year. You could look at AM's price at early this year when they were clearly the first ASIC miner, and then predict its price when they don't have advantage anymore now.

high return involves high risk, which is always the case.

It is true that there is no positive information about the gen2 chips. All we know is friedcat and his team are working hard on that. Based on what they have achieved this year, pay 0.9BTC/share to buy/risk/gamble/invest(whatever you call it) its success, is a good deal or not? You have to make your own choice.

BitThink

legendary

Activity: 882

Merit: 1000

Really risky to buy in when there's no solid info about the Gen2 chips.

Moreover, before buying, make sure you have considered the risk that Cointerra may be successful in their 22nm chips and sell hardware at $3/GH on Jan 2014. I believe AM will survive next year, but not likely to have the same advantage as this year. You could look at AM's price at early this year when they were clearly the first ASIC miner, and then predict its price when they don't have advantage anymore now.

VolanicEruptor

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: pedrog on October 11, 2013, 09:00:55 PM

So, is it time to buy, or you guys predict it will lower a little bit?

I wanna enter this boat.

enter the boat now because in a week it will be too late.

pedrog

legendary

Activity: 2786

Merit: 1031

So, is it time to buy, or you guys predict it will lower a little bit?

I wanna enter this boat.

tehelsper

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but it appears AM is no longer making gen1 USB block eruptors (and maybe blades but the phrasing isn't clear and I was expecting 500GH at some point). According to BTC Guild production of gen 1 has stopped:

Block Erupter Price Cuts / Blades Sold Out
USB Block Erupters have recently experienced another price cut, now at 0.12 BTC (free shipping within US). ASICMINER is stopping the production of new units, so remaining inventory is limited. ASICMINER Blades have now completely sold out as well.

October 10th, 2013

https://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=home

Edit: Could gen2 be sooner than we think?

Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 662. (Read 3917468 times)