Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 660. (Read 3917468 times)

bitcoin asics is a once in a lifetime opportunity. being able to develop a chip so simple it takes only a few engineers a few weeks to design and selling tens of millions of dollars worth of them at 10x or 100x intels margins, I've never seen that before  and don't expect I will  ever see it again.

On the other hand, did any other bitcoin asic company consider broadening their scope, like AM revealed in their last update?

Havelock isn't accepting new securities.

This means that they are considering if they can continue to operate as they are, of will they too forced to introduce restrictions or close down.

I'm glad I chose to wait for my shares to be converted to direct.
Of course not as much as I would if I just sold them high instead.

Yes, all these advantages can support AM to survive for 1 year or 2 years, but nothing will help AM to provide similar dividend as this year. Even friedcat said his objective is single digit profit as traditional industry in 2014. I am not saying AM price will go to 0, I am just saying there's nothing in friedcat's update can support us to expect any upside with current price.

As for the liquidity, you can easily compare the volume before and after closing of BTCT. Now it's the winter in BTC stock world and all the bubbles are popped. It takes a long time for the recovery, let alone the next bubble.

what are you talking about? there are hundreds buy orders only on Havelock. I can hardly imagine that the price would drop to 0.5 or lower because of several perks that asicminer has:

- smart, trustworthy and able management
- cheap workforce and "invincible" price on chips and boards
- cheap electricity in China
- good amount of assets for reinvestment

of course the competition is stronger than ever and that has obviously shown on the actual share price, however I believe that AM will have a strong position to compete against anyone (especially because nobody can create cheaper hardware than chinese)

We've added a new feature to CryptFolio (thread) that lets you value private shares - such as ASICMINER - according to a public security exchange.

For example, if you own 10 ASICMINER shares privately, you can track the value of 10 ASICMINER shares if they were in Havelock Investments under AM1, or any of the other passthroughs. This way you don't have to actively have a security in an exchange to value it.

Believe me or not, the liquidity is gone. It is less possible to see the price fluctuate a lot on good/bad news any more. The value of direct shares now has to be based on dividend. We can count how much dividend we get now when AM had the largest advantage. It's not likely next year will be better.

buy of course, just wait what will happen when we get the 500 Thash of blades and when the gen 2 is out... the shares are at bargain price now

Now the liquidity is gone, so the value of share mainly depends on the dividend now. Assume the 500TH (and potentially another batch of 500TH if friedcat hasn't changed the plan announced long ago) are sold well in the rest of this year, we may see consistent dividend around 0.005 per week. That's around 0.06 this year.

For the first 3 months of 2014, if the Gen2 chips finally comes out (maybe a successful collaboration with other Gen-2 teams in China, as mentioned in last update) and brings the same profit as the Gen1. That's another 0.06.

Then it all depends on the chips currently under design. If we are so lucky that the chips are superb and mass produced on April 2014 and the profit can be similar to current Gen 1 (very optimistic assumption ), then we have another 0.06 by the end of June 2014.

Currently we are totally clueless about the second half of 2014. Maybe AM has already successfully transferred to non-mining company, or maybe the network hash rate stops exponential increasing. Let's trust Friedcat can fulfill his plan to maintain a single-digit profit in 2014, and we can have 0.005 dividend until the end of 2014. That's another 0.12.

Ok, let's stop here before the guess becomes totally groundless. If AM delivers everything they promised in time, we may have 0.3 BTC back at the end of 2014. If the share price that time is still above 0.3 BTC, we are good. Otherwise, better to sell now.

Anyway, at least there's not much upside in my opinion with the current price.

It seems the hash rate in the new data center, which should increase 3-5TH daily according to friedcat, is not included in this stat yet?

0.6 today....ehehehe, invest or sell? :OOOO

I just wish that all of my shares had been in btct at high point, and not only 2/3s of it But that was risk management and now it is too late I guess.

With now even less shares on havelock and bitfunder than ever were on btct, I have completely lost any feeling for the true price. I'd expect it to be somewhere around 1 BTC with everything I've read, but maybe others have a different outlook on risk. With the small security of known values, it is impossible to calculate it anyway without attaching arbitrary values to network growth, probability of AM delivering and so on.
 

I concur, the important question is when will it slow down...

well does take long to go have a look at ghash.io (450th)

i think bitfury will be the market leader for the foreseeable future. I mean being a private entity and all...

I a lot of other entities are expected to go online toward the end of october. which is kind of now....it still amazes me how close it fits to the exponential Says something kind of philosophical.

2400TH now.

Crazy.

Isnt immersion cooling just another name for a cold shower ?

+ the immersion cooling data center.

It is the unofficial but accurate record.

Don't know if http://erpao.info is official, but it still reports 47 TH/s (in solo mining).