ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 664.

binaryFate

legendary

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Still wild and free

Quote from: CODERsp on October 10, 2013, 06:54:28 PM

Does anybody know, what's the current sutiation with BTC-TC? I've got such email:

A notification has been posted to ASICMINER-PT. You have received this email
because you own shares of ASICMINER-PT.

First Batch Sent To Friedcat

Hi all,
Friedcat has been sent a CSV of all owners of ASICMINER-PT that have filled in their BTC address at https://btct.co/account?tab=tab2
If you have not already, please make sure you plug in your btc address on the account page so we can get your shares transferred to Friedcat in the next week's batch.

I've filled BTC address and was ready for transfer to direct shares, but my shares are still in portfolio and I don't understand, is it normal or something wrong and my shares weren't sent in this batch?

This should go on:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btctcasicminer-pt-public-trading-of-asicminer-shares-148350
Not that we're always on topic here, but when a different thread is obviously the exact relevant place for a post, let's just do it.

CODERsp

full member

Activity: 185

Merit: 100

Does anybody know, what's the current sutiation with BTC-TC? I've got such email:

A notification has been posted to ASICMINER-PT. You have received this email
because you own shares of ASICMINER-PT.

First Batch Sent To Friedcat

Hi all,
Friedcat has been sent a CSV of all owners of ASICMINER-PT that have filled in their BTC address at https://btct.co/account?tab=tab2
If you have not already, please make sure you plug in your btc address on the account page so we can get your shares transferred to Friedcat in the next week's batch.

I've filled BTC address and was ready for transfer to direct shares, but my shares are still in portfolio and I don't understand, is it normal or something wrong and my shares weren't sent in this batch?

adamstgBit

legendary

Activity: 1904

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Trusted Bitcoiner

havelock still hasn't paid this weeks divs?

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: Vysogota on October 10, 2013, 12:40:56 PM

Quote from: binaryFate on September 21, 2013, 10:56:35 AM

Call me lazy, but I don't want to open a page if there is nothing to see. What I'd like to have is something as the watchlist for the threads, where you know whether there is something new without actually opening each single page.

I've wrote this small script (...)

Quote from: ?? on ??

(...) I think the best would be generating a RSS feed. I'll add that to my endless list of things to write.

Be my guest:

1. http://100btc.pl/bitcointalk/rss/users/49840
2. http://100btc.pl/bitcointalk/rss/threads/99497
3. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-web-service-rss-feeds-for-topics-and-users-posts-308954

V.

That rocks!! Cool

Vysogota

newbie

Activity: 16

Merit: 0

Quote from: binaryFate on September 21, 2013, 10:56:35 AM

Call me lazy, but I don't want to open a page if there is nothing to see. What I'd like to have is something as the watchlist for the threads, where you know whether there is something new without actually opening each single page.

I've wrote this small script (...)

Quote from: ?? on ??

(...) I think the best would be generating a RSS feed. I'll add that to my endless list of things to write.

Be my guest:

1. http://100btc.pl/bitcointalk/rss/users/49840
2. http://100btc.pl/bitcointalk/rss/threads/99497
3. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-web-service-rss-feeds-for-topics-and-users-posts-308954

V.

KCBitcoin

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

is there a link where we can monitor AM's live hashrate?

FWGR

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

For the last 10 minutes or so.

Edit: Back up.

talnted

full member

Activity: 236

Merit: 100

www.bitcoingem.com

Havelock down?

dexX7

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1026

May I ask what happened to http://erpao.info/?

chriswilmer

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Quote from: binaryFate on October 10, 2013, 06:20:15 AM

Quote from: chriswilmer on October 09, 2013, 10:10:56 PM

[...] Jutural mentioned [...]

Sorry for the mistake!

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: chriswilmer on October 09, 2013, 10:10:56 PM

[...] Jutural mentioned [...]

BitThink

legendary

Activity: 882

Merit: 1000

Gen 3 refers to the chip currently is under design. See friedcat's second last update. A lab is founded and several exceptional researchers are hired and multiple design plans are undergoing simultaneously. The objective, according to friedcat, is to keep competitive in 2014 and aims at a 1-digit revenue increase similar to traditional industry.

BTW, according to friedcat's update two weeks ago, the order size of Gen-2 chips hadn't be decided yet. If they are ordered now, the chips can be ready Dec 2013 and be deployed in Jan 2014, but there's nothing mentioned about it in latest updates. He only mentioned there're some potential collaboration with other two (40nm, 55nm) teams on Gen-2 chips. This actually made me more worried, since it almost implied that AM does not have satisfying Gen-2 chips themselves.

JimiQ84

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: VeeMiner on October 10, 2013, 02:21:15 AM

Quote from: friedcat on October 09, 2013, 11:37:35 AM

Quick Update

We are still on track of accumulating reinvestment funds, continuing from last month, so please expect less-than-raw-income dividends in the next few weeks. The financials will be given out in October 20s, as mentioned in the last update.

Self-retained (not sold) Hashrate distribution:

Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.

These will be tough times to endure even for us hardcore friedcat believers, but I see light at the end of the tunnel

Anyway, so we will have around 107 Thash locally, then some 19 Thash under franchising now.

Then the 500 Thash will come in a few weeks so that will be sold/put to franchising. I will point out now that the franchising is all located in China which means cheap electricity.

Then the Gen 2 should come I guess no one really knows any dates on this one and then we're all set. I saw someone writing about Gen 3 here but I don't see where friedcat is talking about gen 3 anywhere....

friedcat was talking about gen2 as 55/65 nm at first and then few weeks ago about 40nm. We don't know if 2nd gen got changed to 40nm or if 40nm is 3rd gen

VeeMiner

hero member

Activity: 752

Merit: 500

bitcoin hodler

Quote from: friedcat on October 09, 2013, 11:37:35 AM

Quick Update

We are still on track of accumulating reinvestment funds, continuing from last month, so please expect less-than-raw-income dividends in the next few weeks. The financials will be given out in October 20s, as mentioned in the last update.

Self-retained (not sold) Hashrate distribution:

Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.

These will be tough times to endure even for us hardcore friedcat believers, but I see light at the end of the tunnel

Anyway, so we will have around 107 Thash locally, then some 19 Thash under franchising now.

Then the 500 Thash will come in a few weeks so that will be sold/put to franchising. I will point out now that the franchising is all located in China which means cheap electricity.

Then the Gen 2 should come I guess no one really knows any dates on this one and then we're all set. I saw someone writing about Gen 3 here but I don't see where friedcat is talking about gen 3 anywhere....

chriswilmer

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Activity: 1008

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Quote from: helixone on October 09, 2013, 10:21:41 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on October 09, 2013, 10:10:56 PM

Hey I just had a thought. Would it be reasonable for ASICMiner to share a projected dividends outlook for two to three months? Just a ballpark estimate of course, and with the understanding that no one can predict the future, etc.

I think there's some unnecessary shareholder anxiety caused merely by ASICMiner's strategy/financing being unclear. For example, Jutural mentioned that ASICMiner paid no dividends for the first 7 months. That is a great example of a period of time where having 0 dividends was not a problem, because shareholders more-or-less expected it. Similarly, if Friedcat and co. think that over the next three months the dividends are going to:

a) steadily decrease
b) hover at around 0.005/share
c) stay at zero

that's all perfectly fine with me... if that's more-or-less the plan. I don't think it would be giving away any secrets to the competition to share dividend projections would it? What do you guys think?

I like your line of thinking, however, no miner has the ability to predict mining proceeds three months out, as mining profitability has four main inputs:

1) One's own effective hashrate
2) Hashrate of the network
3) Price of bitcoin
4) Price of overhead/electricity

Arguably #2 and #3 have historically been very pretty difficult to predict, so any predictions would be nothing better than guesses.

Friedcat could share their own predicted hashrate over the next three months, and their costs, but my sense is that information would be too valuable to the competition to make public, and wouldn't really help shareholders as much as you might hope.

-helixone

I was afraid you (or someone) would say that.

Look, the point is not to accurately predict the future. No one can do that. Furthermore, I don't want Friedcat to share hashrate predictions or other details such as cost, etc. A ballpark dividend projection is essentially a restatement of the expected business plan under nominal conditions - of course the real conditions might be different.

Let's not over think this. There's nothing complicated about knowing that the dividends were going to be zero for the first 4-8 months after the company formed. Similarly, if ASICMiner is planning to heavily reinvest in infrastructure over the next few months, there may be negligible dividends in that period independent of unpredictable competition. Conversely, if ASICMiner is planning a major hardware sales push (or ramping up of self-mining), I would just tell shareholders that dividends are expected to be stable (and hope to pleasantly surprise them).

I don't know if what I am saying is at all reasonable. I've started a tech company before, but it was privately held and we never paid dividends

BitThink

legendary

Activity: 882

Merit: 1000

The mining income is relatively easier to calculate since the only uncertain factor is the difficulty. Most likely we can assume the hashing rate is 120TH - 150TH for the next 3 months, depends on how well franchising is accepted.

The main part of the income, however, comes from the sales of hardware. This is relatively harder to predict. Best scenario, we can hope 400TH sold by mid Nov (at around $15/G) and another 500TH sold by Dec (at around $8/G). Worse scenario: 200TH sold by mid Nov (at around $15/G) and another 200TH sold by Dec (at around $8/G).

That's the income. How much of it can be paid as dividend depends on the cost and the holding back by AM, but we at least know the upper limit.

According to the above analysis, and assume 70% of income can be paid as dividend, I have a very rough guess of the dividend of the following 3 months: average 0.004 - 0.008 per week, in total 0.05 - 0.1 for 3 months.

Not too bad for the following 3 months, but what will happen after 3 months is a big question mark. It's possible we will see near-zero dividend.

helixone

full member

Activity: 131

Merit: 100

Quote from: chriswilmer on October 09, 2013, 10:10:56 PM

Hey I just had a thought. Would it be reasonable for ASICMiner to share a projected dividends outlook for two to three months? Just a ballpark estimate of course, and with the understanding that no one can predict the future, etc.

I think there's some unnecessary shareholder anxiety caused merely by ASICMiner's strategy/financing being unclear. For example, Jutural mentioned that ASICMiner paid no dividends for the first 7 months. That is a great example of a period of time where having 0 dividends was not a problem, because shareholders more-or-less expected it. Similarly, if Friedcat and co. think that over the next three months the dividends are going to:

a) steadily decrease
b) hover at around 0.005/share
c) stay at zero

that's all perfectly fine with me... if that's more-or-less the plan. I don't think it would be giving away any secrets to the competition to share dividend projections would it? What do you guys think?

I like your line of thinking, however, no miner has the ability to predict mining proceeds three months out, as mining profitability has four main inputs:

1) One's own effective hashrate
2) Hashrate of the network
3) Price of bitcoin
4) Price of overhead/electricity

Arguably #2 and #3 have historically been very pretty difficult to predict, so any predictions would be nothing better than guesses.

Friedcat could share their own predicted hashrate over the next three months, and their costs, but my sense is that information would be too valuable to the competition to make public, and wouldn't really help shareholders as much as you might hope.

-helixone

chriswilmer

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Hey I just had a thought. Would it be reasonable for ASICMiner to share a projected dividends outlook for two to three months? Just a ballpark estimate of course, and with the understanding that no one can predict the future, etc.

I think there's some unnecessary shareholder anxiety caused merely by ASICMiner's strategy/financing being unclear. For example, Jutarul mentioned that ASICMiner paid no dividends for the first 7 months. That is a great example of a period of time where having 0 dividends was not a problem, because shareholders more-or-less expected it. Similarly, if Friedcat and co. think that over the next three months the dividends are going to:

a) steadily decrease
b) hover at around 0.005/share
c) stay at zero

that's all perfectly fine with me... if that's more-or-less the plan. I don't think it would be giving away any secrets to the competition to share dividend projections would it? What do you guys think?

BitThink

legendary

Activity: 882

Merit: 1000

Quote from: glendall on October 09, 2013, 09:43:51 PM

Quote from: BitThink on October 09, 2013, 09:13:30 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: BitThink on October 09, 2013, 08:51:10 PM

There are more choices to buy mining hardwares

Unless it's non-exploding hardware.

In long term, gen2 chips cannot be postponed any more, or AM has to be converted to non-mining company totally. If currently the design and testing of gen2 has been finished, then there's no reason not to mass produce it. Even they are not sold well, self mining with them are still profitable. Suppose the watt/G reduce to 1/3 of gen-1, the self-mining capacity can increase to 300TH (from current 100TH), with the same power supply limit.

I think what you said makes a lot of sense and I agree with it.

But additionally, I would also consider another possibility that if the price per GH is right (or cheapest), for those who at least live in countries with very cheap power, then you could imagine a scenario where Asicminer's chips, even though older gen and using much more power, still may be the most attractive option for some long-scale and hobbyist miners.

Sure the watt/G is hugely important... but as well, price per gh is also paramount. Maybe I'm confusing things, but just saying, it is conceivable to me to have a successful product of 130nm asic miners if the make up for their shortcomings in selling price. Finally, rushing to market with a gen 2 at this point -- if you have a proven gen 1 product that you can economically produce and sell -- may not be the best plan. Instead, getting a lab set up, and hire some smart-folk, and making a great 2nd gen chip instead of late-coming average gen 2 chip would be a better alternative.

Gen-3 chips are already under research, and a lab is already founded and the researcher candidates are decided already, all according to the second latest update. But that's far far away in the bitcoin time scale. Even everything goes smoothly and the gen-3 chips are successfully designed in time, it takes at least 2 months for design and testing and 2 months for producing testing chips and another 2 months for mass production. So we are very lucky if we can benefit from Gen-3 chips in March 2014.

Meanwhile, the Gen-1 chips can be sold $20/G on Oct, $10/G on Nov, $5/G on Dec. It will become not profitable at all in next year. So if the current 500TH are sold well, then at best there're another 500TH to be sold this year. If not, then these 500TH is the last batch of Gen-1 Chips.

Without Gen-2 Chips, AM can do nothing for at least 3 months (Jan 2014 - March 2014) except mining with the current 200TH (less than 0.5% then). That's the reason I said AM has to turn into a non-mining company (providing board producing, cooling solution, and deploy service as friedcat said in his post before) if they don't order Gen2 Chips immediately.

wpgdeez

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The power logistics alone make it a pretty unattractive option for a farm considering what you need to be competitive.

Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 664. (Read 3917468 times)