Why do you guys love this pointless guessing game? It will not make you in to a financial analyst, securities analyst nor equity analyst and definitely not in to a investment analyst.
To have a better understanding, what is happening, all you need to do, is look at the ASICMINER project plan, compare the actual to base line and see, how the estimated numbers fit with CF, PL statements and voilà...
To figure out ASICMINER's value, you only need to look at their balance sheet and go form there...
The fair valuation of any security depends heavily on the forward P/E, which in turn is heavily dependent on the hashrate increase and the quality of AM's 2nd gen hardware - which necessarily makes this a guessing game.
I would posit, however, that some guesses are defensible whilst others are not.
By the way, this is not my first analysis and I do not expect it to make me a better analyst. I expect it to make me money.
