Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 781. (Read 3917468 times)

damn, back down to 3.5

I guess we gotta wait to see what dividends will be tomorrow to see a rally here.

Also, it's my impression that the shareholders of the pass-through shares are in large part, new investors, never having weathered a bad quarter or the lure of penny-stock giga-profits.  Dumping and buying back lower and then dumping and buying back higher over and over... 

I hope so. It took some time for him to transfer my direct share. I hope this means FC is busy with awesome stuff that will surprise us once again.

Asicminer is 6% of the network and decreasing, and nobody knows what the hardware sales are yet, and nobody knows what friedcat's timeline/plans are for faster chips


that completely explains the selloff,  and also in the auctions there are more sellers than buyers for now

thats it

I believe Friedcat has the infrastructure to deploy quickly, so enjoy your cheaper shares

Things move a warp-speed in the bitcoin universe. This generates a particular form of time-dilation that has the effect of compressing the "Yes, but what have you done for me lately" syndrome. It is a disease of perception closely related to "Space Madness".

"Others promise, Friedcat delivers." This is as true today as it was yesterday.

The key for AM to survive now is to keep "low profile". If AM really begins growing fast, we all need to be careful. Although I believe friedcat will not do like that.

Greed and fear most notably.
In my view you are leveraging on the latter.
The former at the moment pushes quite some vapourware.
Market correlation is a third and important element, you'll be able to collect quite some evidence.

So many key elements play a role in AM share value, other than actual fundamentals.
I think we have to (carefully) live with it.

Yeah, I can't argue with that. The fact that AM is a bitcoin-denominated security makes this insanely volatile already.

I'm curious as to what market mechanics you're referring to, though?

Considered the kind of market we deal with, we're probably all gamblers here (and yes, i find it disturbing).

I can't agree much with your AM view though, i think you are missing some underlying market mechanics.
Good luck however.

I bought a loooot of puts over the last couple months at a reasonable spread of strikes.

It's easy for me to leverage my short position, actually. For example - I bought 3-month puts at a strike of 3.2 BTC for a ~0.30 BTC premium. That means that I have the right to sell a share of AM for anytime in the 3 months after the contract is issued for 3.2 BTC, in exchange for an up-front payment of 0.3 BTC.

So in the hypothetical situation that I buy 10 of these puts, I spend a modest 3 BTC. If the stock price drops to 2.9 and I buy 10 shares for 29 BTC, then sell them for 32 BTC, I've broken even.

If the price drops to 2 BTC, I buy 10 shares for 20 BTC and sell for 32 BTC, I've made 12 BTC for a 300% profit.

Suffice to say - if the share price drops much below 2.8 BTC or so, I will do more than break even.


I don't doubt there are many potential paths AM could have taken, and you are right that I am taking a constrained view of Bitcoin. I have neither expended the time thinking about the potential uses, nor am I particularly gifted at appreciating growth possibilities. Apparently, neither is Friedcat.

I am a value investor first and foremost. I have beaten the market by an appreciable amount for five years in a row now, based on a simple value investment strategy. That strategy depends heavily on selecting boring companies that I can understand. In the past, that has included traditional mining companies. Now it happens to mean a bitcoin mining company; and instead of being undervalued, it's overvalued. So be it.

If this was truly acting like a growth company (and it should be - it's a year old!), I would never have bought those options. But, for whatever reason, Friedcat doesn't want to explore the rich possibilities available here. Franchising is his greatest innovation - a solution to a problem he doesn't have (threatening network stability because he's got too much hashpower). And the simple corporate structure (well, they mine bitcoins, and sell things that mine bitcoins) leads me to conclude, with a certainty that is all but impossible in traditional markets, that this thing is overvalued.

So, the question is - does the market stay irrational longer than I stay solvent? I guess I'm a gambler after all.

You ask for utilizing bitcoin as a platform, yet you fall back to traditional thinking and are constrained by the notion of bitcoin as a unit of account.

If you really want to look into the future of this emerging technology you have to take the 50,000 feet view and realize that bitcoin combined a few concepts which are revolutionary beyond monetary use. You now have a decentralized transactional database for irreversible record keeping: the blockchain. This has a tremendous utility for the global society beyond monetary uses. For starters, it allows you to build tamper-detection into every database in the world by computing incremental hashes and submitting them as a bitcoin transaction. Maybe the whole software distribution system can be standardized by letting software developers issue a bitcoin transaction, whenever they release software, making the current system of using certificates obsolete (e.g. a potential application of colored coins).

Whatever the future of bitcoin holds, ASICMINER is a project to serve the mining community first and foremost. Google's "innovation" to go into the "ad" space was not really an innovation - it was the realization that users are willing to pay services by delivering their private information. And that there are companies who a willing to pay cash for that private information. Are you suggesting that ASICMINER should try to develop new monetizing strategies for their deployed hashing power? E.g. by offering a zero-transaction fee inclusion in exchange for something the user is willing to give up? Or maybe even a reward, based on the mining subsidy?

Vycid, are you selling calls or buying puts? (I'm not an options guru btw, if you respond, ELI5 thanks).

Spoken like a man with no arguments to make.

There are no arguments in my statements. Arguments would just trigger more bullshit from you. Again, I can only laugh at your "being short" explanation.

This is a discussion forum where people exchange opinions and information.

Your failure to understand does not constitute a logical inconsistency.

Neither do your straw man arguments.


I'm short via an options position, obviously. That position alone is not the motivation, though, as I don't think I really have much leverage in influencing the price level. It's got a lot more to do with my interest in AM as an apparent violation of rational markets theory.

What I don't understand is why is vycid trying to convince anyone about anything. If you don't believe in AM then don't buy shares.

I already didnt get what you mean with "growth". Does that have something to do with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower in combination with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_in_Wonderland? I suppose wonderland is the platform? You genius!

09:00 (S) 2 @ 3.50500000 ASICMINER-PT
09:00 (S) 2 @ 3.50500000 ASICMINER-PT
09:00 (S) 1 @ 3.50600000 ASICMINER-PT
09:00 (S) 8 @ 3.50700000 ASICMINER-PT
09:00 (S) 2 @ 3.51000000 ASICMINER-PT
09:00 (S) 1 @ 3.55000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:59 (S) 15 @ 3.56000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:59 (S) 1 @ 3.56200000 ASICMINER-PT
08:59 (S) 1 @ 3.57000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:59 (S) 1 @ 3.58000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:58 (S) 3 @ 3.58100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:58 (S) 1 @ 3.58200000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.60000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 5 @ 3.60000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 10 @ 3.60100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.60100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 3 @ 3.60200000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.60200000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.60300000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.60400000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.60500000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.60600000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.60800000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.60900000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 10 @ 3.60900000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.61000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.61000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.61000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 6 @ 3.61100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.61100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 5 @ 3.61200000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.61300000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.61700000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 2 @ 3.62000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.62100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.62100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.62500000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.64000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.67100000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.67200000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.67300000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 4 @ 3.68000000 ASICMINER-PT
08:56 (S) 1 @ 3.68100000 ASICMINER-PT

Thar she blows...

There's now a 0.2 bid/ask spread. MMs must be having a good time.

yes! Friedcatmobile - coming in two week (tm)