Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 203. (Read 808768 times)

Let's say every week is 0.022 (current dividend) and the price is 4.25 (current price), the yearly APR is 27%.

However, it's not 0.022 every week, and the average is actually around 0.026 (the last 8 dividends), the yearly APR is 33%.

4.5 brings it to exactly 30% and so I think that's where we'll hover until blade sales in a week or two. 30% has always seemed like the right spot to balance.

Seems like we really wanted a higher dividend like 0.035 this week, and if we got it, were ready for 5. We didn't, so we'll wait at 4.5.

Actually a falling BTC price should lead to a drop in AM valuation.
a. purchasing power of the bitcoin is lower, thus the upkeep (rental,bills,overhead,power) becomes more expensive, leading to lower mining dividends
b. less incentive to acquire mining equipment (collapse of the sales market), since the market offers bitcoins at a decent price (thus stabilizing bitcoin price eventually).

but you're right with respect to 3. A collapse of the purchasing power of bitcoin will lead to an environment where the competition (which didn't lock in profits by now) will simply be squeezed out, leading to maybe a few survivors. As such AM is well positioned. A BTC price undervaluation actually gives the company a little bit of breathing room with respect to hardware development, because of the diminishing returns for starting competitions.

total nonsense.  

For one, this week only had USB sales, and even then, hardware was .007.  Blades are the big ticket item, the big seller, and where we make money on hardware.  And we've got new ones coming for sale soon (including the mini blade, a new offering).

Share price will likely hit 4.25, and then go back up to 5 as everyone buys the cheap shares everywhere.

Typical bear trap after the big rise.

So... when's the next Friedcat update likely, and how high will it drive the price this time?

First of all falling Bitcoin is securing ASICMINER. Why?

1. You have more and more reasonable price for Bitcoin which leads to thinking AM is less risky
2. Bitcoin users use AM as hedge so if btc falls, you can sell them or buy AM, get dividents and also hope for bigger price
3. More real value of btc (I see it around $40-70) means less space for AM competition which will have harder start

The price will be below 4 again before you know it, but will hover around that for some time. Anything below 3.5 is a no-brainer buying opportunity.

The reality is that the mining revenue is consistent, but the hardware sales are not, and people who think there will be strong hardware sales 52 weeks a year are imagining things.  Asicminer hardware demand comes in big blips - it sells like hotcakes the minute it is announced for sale and then typically sells out.  .02BTC is what you should realistically expect as an average dividend - .015 from mining and .005 from hardware.  

Also, with the price of bitcoin declining vs the USD, new money coming in for mining hardware will be lower for two reasons.  First, mining a bitcoin will not be worth as much in USD. And, second, a bitcoin will cost less.  This means the equillibrium price for converting USD to mining hardware is lower than it was and less USD will be converted into demand for mining equipment.

In my view, this is great news for the long term and bad news for the short term for Asicminer shareholder return.  If you bought shares yesterday, you're screwed for a while. But if you didn't sell yesterday, don't worry - you will continue to receive a steady stream of dividends for years to come that will more than offset the short term price decline.

After this healthy correction, 5.4 will be the new staying price:)

Me too.

I wish i had more BTC to buy shares

BTC-TC really is fun to watch on Wednesdays.... everybody freak out! 

Yeah, looks like a repeat of 2 weeks ago.

wow!  look at the cheap shares!  nice!

thanks, guys!

lol, you guys are fanatics

For sake of speed I thought accurate to 6 decimal places would be enough, I'll know better next time. 

I think this is a great dividend! It is a little less than expected but still very healthy and leaves us with roughly 25% dividend yield when looking at the supporting bids at 4,85btc/share.

It is great because it is no reason at all to freak out, neither upward nor downward. Maybe we can get the stock price to stay roughly steady for the coming days

I get 0.02297025

0.02297

https://blockchain.info/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

C'mon!  This is why it is obvious that you are spreading FUD.  First off...  there are several contrarian posts on this thread.  You are no loan voice in the wilderness.

Secondly, what sort of responses did you expect to get?  You are posting to a thread that is populated with investors.  Most of these investors are ones that have done their homework on AM and conclude differently from you that it remains a good investment.  You are getting well-reasoned responses so overstating the facts and calling the responses groupthinky proves to me your main goal is to spread FUD so that the price goes down and you make coin. 


Well certainly in hindsight GLBSE was an unreliable exchange.

But the idea that the current crop of exchanges are unreliable yet reliable enough to do business with?  Nope.  Still doesn't make sense.

Yes, but i think "I'm wrong" would suffice.

This could replace the several pages of disclaimer that go at the back of every piece of financial literature...so elegant

I think a valid question is whether AM is structured to have sufficient capital to invest in next generation devices without raising funds. For now, I assume they do, but there really isn't much information available to us to verify that.

Also, mining dividends are quite unlikely to *suddenly* disappear except for loss of the farm (catastrophe, natural disaster, sabotage, seizure). Otherwise, if AM are unable to maintain their percentage of the total hash rate, I would expect it would be evident in a gradual decline over a few months. To me at least, that's a little different from the BTC run-up, because BTC don't pay dividends. Hardware sales revenue is subject to much faster winds than hash rate, but AM has some structural and scale advantages from playing both sides.