Who cares if AM or BFL was a better investment last year? It has jack to do about the future and purchase decisions today.
it does, because one company has credibility, and the other doesn't, based on how they have performed over the past year. One company is 9 months+ behind in orders, and moving at a snail's pace, while the other company can deliver your hardware in a few weeks.
promises are cheap, but the value is when companies can deliver on their promises.
BFL has failed to meet their own deadlines, their own promises, their own targets time and time again.
AM, on the other hand, has over-delivered and has met targets, one after another.
So, do you really think past performance is irrelevant when it comes to judging future performance?
ASICminer were one of the first to market and did quite well. They built a nice hashing farm and were able to sell devices with quite large markups. But they were pretty much the only clowns in the town. These questions remain:
1. Can anyone else produce ASICs? (yes)
2. Will they put pressure on ASICminer's markups? (yes)
3. Can ASICminer maintain their share of the network? (probably)
4. Can ASICminer maintain the margins of the hardware they sell? (no)
5. Do superior ASICs exist? (yes)
7. Has ASICminer demonstrated an ASIC competitive with what the competition has demonstrated? (no)
8. Can ASICminer produce a more efficient chip without stumbling? (unknown)
ASICminer had a brilliant strategy to get to market first by relying on outdated manufacturing and idle factories. They did that well, but now they need to move to the next stage where the others have been toiling. ASICminer is a good hare, but given how close the tortoises appear to be, ASICminer better not trip.
