Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 266. (Read 808905 times)

No idea what the current quote is, but let's make a short back-of-the-envelope calculation based on what is currently known:

1. 200 TH/s arriving soon (July?): assume the order is already paid in full, and that it is only Blades, i.e. 20 000 Blade units. Assume half will be sold and half will be used for mining. Sales price will be lower than earlier, let's assume 25 BTC per Blade. And let's assume that each blade will earn the same amount mining over the next year, so 25 BTC/Blade * 20 000 Blades = 500 000 BTC, or 1.25 BTC per share in revenue over the next year from this order only!

2. More hashing power based on current-gen tech could easily be ordered, costing 10k USD per TH/s. Assume two more 200 TH/s orders over the next year, each earning a revenue half of the preceding order, so 0.625 BTC and 0.3125 BTC (per share) respectively.

3. Next-generation technology: assume AM can squeeze the same amount of revenue over the next year from next-gen tech as they will with current-gen tech. 1.25+0.625+0.3125 BTC

One-year revenue forecast per share: 4.375 BTC per share.

Costs: R&D, production and operations - no idea! 1 BTC per share?

So based on these horribly vague and unreliable assumptions, I see dividends of 3.375 BTC per share over the next 12 months. Assuming performance halfs every 12 months (competition, market saturation, etc.): dividends of approx. 6.3 BTC per share over the next 4 years.

Based on plenty of assumptions, I estimate a fair value above 6.3 BTC per share.

This appears pretty reasonable in my opinion: would mean company value is about 2.5 million BTC or approximately 25% of the remaining BTC to be issued. It can easily be imagined that 25% of the remaining BTC will be mined using AM hardware, and if the hardware is sold at a price close to the break-even price it means 25% of the remaining BTC to be issued will fall in the hands of AM.

My speculated fair value: 6.3 BTC per share.

yeah, I agree with you, I'm just saying that's the best they can probably do. 

I don't expect them to keep that rate, which means that mining dividends will be decreasing.

You can't assume that they can just double the rate at which they bring hashing power online. Going from 20 Th/s to 40 Th/s in a month just shows that they can bring 20 Th/s online in a month. Were those devices already assembled? The Blades do about 10 Gh/s so that's about 100 Blades per Th/s. In order to go from 80 Th/s to 160 Th/s in a month, about 266 Blades would have to be brought online every day.

i think a 25% yield is where things will settle too..

This will be the key to ASICMiner holding it's value.  Maintaining 20% of the network hash rate while it's rising in a parabolic fashion.

I like http://www.asicminercharts.com/

3 things I notice:

1. We were at 20 TH/s on 5/9.  We hit a peak of 37 TH on 6/13.  So, it took us a month to almost double our hash rate..  If that rate can be maintained (I don't know if that is reasonable), then we can expect about 80 TH on 7/13, 160 TH in mid August.

2. Mining revenue is steady around .015/share, and hasn't changed much since mid-May.

3. We are staying right around 20% of the network, and I don't expect that to change much in the future, so mining revenue will probably be fairly constant at .015 for the foreseeable future.


I agree that prices will drop, but I don't know if it will hit 2.5.  I think 2.7 is reasonable for this week, and that's an appropriate price for where AM is currently.  If we get new hardware, 2nd generation, or a giant uptick in USB sales, then it is undervalued.

I'd say at a share price where you consistently yield 25% AM is reasonably priced if not a bit undervalued. That yield still has moderately high risk priced in

It appears that this week AM is producing consistently a 50% higher return from mining. Source:

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

It is likely that they are pushing stock-on-hand into the mine rather than trying to sell it (obv new blades coming in a few weeks).

Anyway, last week AM mined 0.0132BTC per share, so I'm tipping about 0.02 per share from that this week. Take away something for expenses, add a little bit of hardware sales that may have cleared during the week and ~0.023-0.025 is looking likely.

I think the share price will probably head back to the 2.5BTC range for a while, which I am OK with. It's still yielding 1% a week which is an excellent return for the nearest thing Bitcoin has to a blue-chip stock.

That could be a few weeks from now, at the rate we're going :

http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


Edit:  I'm adding a list of ASICMiner related shortcuts to this post just for the sake of convenience:

 - https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
 - http://www.coinflow.co/chart/ASICMINER-PT
 - http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/
 - http://www.asicminercharts.com/
 - http://blockchain.info/pools
 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c
 - https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/friedcat-49840
 - https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/asicminer-pr-151548

When do you expect that to happen?  I doubt we'll see that before August, but who knows.

The thing is, it seems like they are trying to stay at around 20% of the network, so even with the 200TH, mining revenue won't be increasing.

So, how much are the shares really worth when they are receiving around .015 dividend each week?

I'd like to discuss the share price of AM on this thread.  Is it going up? down? sideways? 

Discuss PTs directs, 1/100ths, and anything else related to AM.

Just for the record, I love AM, and I am a shareholder.  I am holding for the long term, but speculation is interesting to me.  All of this is just my opinion based on information and/or patterns I see.  I could be wrong, and I'm happy to be wrong, it doesn't matter to my overall valuation of AM.

I will get this started:

June 16: I expect a correction of share price down to 2.7.  With the recent stop of blade sales, combined with lower USB sales, dividend will be considerably lower this week (expect less than .025), and I believe some people will sell off.  On top of that, the demand that pushed the price to 3 btc this week is getting weak, and the price is currently slipping sub 2.9.

With the downward pressure, I expect the price to slip, and then probably grow slowly over the next 2-3 weeks, which is a good thing.  When dividends bounce back up in mid July, we'll see another bump in share price.

Discuss...