Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 259. (Read 808768 times)

Even at the current 0.01557/share dividend mining rate, that would still be over a 0.5% dividend for a WEEK.  That's still pretty nuts, guys.

My speculation is the hash rate drop is the sign of friedcat about to release something massive.

Yep we have no time machine my furry bear comrade  
So we will see later XD

yes, Friedcat himself said they stopped selling blades, and by his stats, the USBs are not selling as fast.

yes, look at the hash estimates, they are way down.

this is all speculation, nothing to back it up.  There is certainly an issue somewhere for the hash rate to drop so much so quickly.


 The time to sell has passed, the price is dropping, and no one is buying.


 this is just a rumor, and Friedcat said earlier that blades are not being sold.  So, I think this is wishful thinking, at best.[/list][/list]

Not really it's hard to tell besides the mining income
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=12

There are some good theories though
The hash rate did drop but the units might be taken offline for now and moved to different locations due to electricity availability in China
The hash rate dropped and will be replaced with new units
Someone bought a lot of the old units and the dividend will be big this week

I personally think Friedcat stopped selling for a while due to Kitteh's assumptions
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2509592
So he puts blades on sale for a while, then takes them off when they're no longer a good deal. People will learn that if they want AM products, it's best to get in early when the rewards are best, as they'll offer the best return early and won't be on sale forever.

In the short term its really not that big of a difference the fact they sold out all their units is a big deal and new units are coming by the end of the month or early July just means a lower dividend for a week or two as I mentioned in my other post the medium term risk is still there but not for a while yet.

We have seen the price of the stock jump from 2.5 to 3 to 2.8 recently as well and it has dropped a bit lower on the lower dividend expectations but anyone with a longer duration than a 2 week holder will probably not worry about these things
As they bought in at 2.5, people buying at 3 on the auctions form are also likely bullish over the longer term or just picked bad timing

Friedcat does overdeliver and underestimate as many people point out

But this is all speculation XD

TAT shares were slightly above .025 a week ago... for them to go as high as .029 seems like they were a little overpriced for the time.  While I haven't sold any, I'll probably hold off buying more until after the divs because they seem a little much right now.

Do you mean .025 and .03?  If so, big difference.

OMG OMG SELL SELL XD
Nom nom nom

That said main AM thread is making excellent discussion
Heating issues, location, new blades, electricity, mysterious chinese buyers lots of good points and of course all speculation that belongs here whistles guys come here XD

There's a somewhat incorrect advertising campaign going on
Causing a lot of people to be confused
Technicals are being handled
They are artificial


The core Bitcoin network can scale to much higher transaction rates than are seen today, assuming that nodes in the network are primarily running on high end servers rather than desktops. Bitcoin was designed to support lightweight clients that only process small parts of the block chain (see simplified payment verification below for more details on this). A configuration in which the vast majority of users sync lightweight clients to more powerful backbone nodes is capable of scaling to millions of users and tens of thousands of transactions per second.

Today the Bitcoin network is restricted to a sustained rate of 7 tps by some artificial limits. These were put in place to stop people from ballooning the size of the block chain before the network and community was ready for it. Once those limits are lifted, the maximum transaction rate will go up significantly.

Ultimate Blockchain is the solution to this bloat issue
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ultimate-blockchain-compression-w-trust-free-lite-nodes-88208

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

Tomorrow's dividends might have interesting price effects. Rumors have been swirling as of late:

• Are ASICMINER hardware sales in decline?
• Is ASICMINER underperforming in block mining? With rumors suggesting:
  • Unstable electricity in hot southern China
  • Large sell-off of ASICMINER hardware to new Chinese investment entries into the Bitcoin mining
  • Technical malfunctions at the datacenter

It's probably a good time to have your shares on an exchange (passthrough).

As a investor , you could not expect you will perfectly predicting the market. do not freaking as long as you are profitable, and if you think you are worry about the price then just selling some part of your AM and collect the profit.This would be a most prudent way. Be happy unless you are investing in few of the profitable asset over the market, did you see there are lot of people are suffered because they can't sell their asset at whatever price..

I have been watching the buy orders very closely.  They have been extremely weak after the run up to 3.  The demand just isn't there right now, and with today's situation, I don't see demand picking up until we have very positive developments.  Weak dividends are the least of our worries with the hash rates like they are.

well, I'm freaking out that I didn't sell at 2.9, like some other people around here. 

That ask line is dropping, little by little, we are going to be in the 2.7s in a few hours if something doesn't change.

As long as if your selling AM shares at profit level, you should not call it freaking out, but I personally think the difference between bid and ask is mean the ask line is hold by people's will .

I am retaining my profit first, because I saw all people holding AM try to hold there ask line very strong ,but there are lack of bids ,I though this ask line will be broken soon if the hash rate not coming back in short time.

Mining revenue is lower than last week:


Shares on the TAT.AM went for as low as .025!  Bitfunder dropped below 2.8! Can I start freaking out, yet?

Every time I try to outsmart something like this in the short-term, I lose. We are flirting with 10 th/s over the past 24 hours, though.

I'm going to ride it until the wheels fall off, or I can pay off my house. Whichever comes first

Ian

Hash rate is dropping, competitor pools are increasing, hardware sales are minimal, and the mining dividend is stuck at .015.  If BTC/USD crashes in the next day or so, I am afraid that AM may go to 2.5 or lower.

Seriously, the hash rate looks like something major happened.  I haven't seen any news from Friedcat, but I'm expecting issues at the data center. I certainly hope not, because this is really the wrong time for mining revenue to decrease.

We could be seeing a perfect storm brewing OR it could be nothing, and Friedcat is bringing in loads more TH/s to increase the mining revenue.

So, what do you guys think?  Cash in on some profits before dividend drop or what?  Where will we see the floor by next Sunday?

The argument is based on the assumption that BTCUSD exchange rate is based on transaction volume (specifically, the likelihood of BTC replacing USD for various transactional sub-economies).  If the transaction volume that BTC can handle is limited, the exchange rate is likewise limited.

Dots well enough connected for you?

I don't accept the underlying assumption, so I'm not overly concerned.

It certainly has a direct correlation to transaction volume, but I'm not seeing anything between BTC and USD.

I may not have enough insight as to why they are related, though.

Ian