Hi!
is the formula to calculate tx size still this(for legacy addresses):
in*180 + out*34 + 10 plus or minus 'in'
or it has changed into something else?
thanks.
Topic: [Aug 2022] Mempool empty! Use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! - page 36. (Read 88281 times)
December 26, 2021, 06:49:52 AM
December 10, 2021, 03:22:13 AM
Hash rate is on it's top (level from May '21) so probably we may expect some adaptations soon.
I like Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator for this: it shows there's 8.3% more new blocks found than expected, which means difficulty will go up soon indeed, which means less blocks will be found after that. December 10, 2021, 03:15:44 AM
After 24 hours of increased fees, now we are again back to situation we all love so much. Hash rate is on it's top (level from May '21) so probably we may expect some adaptations soon.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
December 06, 2021, 05:49:54 AM
If you want to observe it better, I would recommend using https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,8h,weight and https://mempool.space/.
The latter nicely displays the amount of incoming transactions (actually it's not about amount, it's about size - hence the vB) like follows.
I would also add this new graphical experimental website bits.monospace.live that is showing bitcoin transaction and mempool state with value or in vbyte mode (change in settings).The latter nicely displays the amount of incoming transactions (actually it's not about amount, it's about size - hence the vB) like follows.
This could be interesting tool for any newbies and everyone else to better understand mempool and transactions.
https://bits.monospace.live/
December 05, 2021, 11:40:37 PM
On average, the number of transactions that can be processed stays constant,
Actually the "number" of transactions that can be included in a block varies because there is no count limit, there is only a size (or more accurately weight) limit for each block. So in an extreme example you could create 10x 4 MB weight transactions and fill 10 blocks (1 tx per block) or you could create 60 byte transactions and fill a block with ~16660 transactions. December 05, 2021, 12:30:53 PM
Why is the mempool at 20 sat this day?
Someone made a lot of transactions, probably consolidating many inputs.Mempool cleared already, see this graph:
December 05, 2021, 11:27:22 AM
Why is the mempool at 20 sat this day?
https://www.btc-forum.de/mempool
Last days it was around 1-3 sat.
What do you mean? The mempool is never at X sat. It's just a pool of unconfirmed transactions. You could say 'it's at X megabytes' maybe.https://www.btc-forum.de/mempool
Last days it was around 1-3 sat.
When a new transaction is received by a node, it will hold it in its memory pool with all the other latest transactions it has received. From here the transaction will be hoping to get selected for inclusion in the candidate block.
So basically, the memory pool is a waiting room for new transactions.
So basically, the memory pool is a waiting room for new transactions.
You are probably referring to the currently recommended fee. Everyone can choose how they recommend it, but most sites recommend the minimum fee that is high enough to get a transaction confirmed in the next block. It depends on how 'filled' the mempool is, and this depends on how many transactions were submitted lately.
On average, the number of transactions that can be processed stays constant, so if the number of new tx's is higher than that, the pool fills up and if it drops below, it is cleared block by block. When it's empty or almost empty, you can get a transaction confirmed in the next block for 1 sat. But nobody can tell you or guarantee you when the mempool gets this empty.
If you want to observe it better, I would recommend using https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,8h,weight and https://mempool.space/.
The latter nicely displays the amount of incoming transactions (actually it's not about amount, it's about size - hence the vB) like follows.
December 05, 2021, 11:15:46 AM
Why is the mempool at 20 sat this day?
https://www.btc-forum.de/mempool
Last days it was around 1-3 sat.
https://www.btc-forum.de/mempool
Last days it was around 1-3 sat.
October 23, 2021, 02:33:34 AM
This deserves a quote here:
Fee estimation:
Low fee:
Medium fee:
High fee:
Low fee:
Code:
[img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/lowfee/[/img]
Medium fee:
Code:
[img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/mediumfee/[/img]
High fee:
Code:
[img]https://blackhatcoiner.com/highfee/[/img]
October 09, 2021, 08:11:33 AM
Quote
Because (unfortunately) many people leave their funds on the exchange.
True but when we are seeing a significant "movement", specially after a period of stability, there are a lot of traders who move their funds too. For example there is a large number of day traders who leave bitcoin market when it is stable to go to shitcoin market and pump and dump altcoins. As soon as bitcoin starts making rising they dump those shitcoins and move back to bitcoin market (which is why all altcoins dump against bitcoin). In many cases this requires a bitcoin withdrawal. Anyhow - 3 days after I stated 'wait a couple days', mempool is empty!
It seems price has stabilized as well, so this would be evidence for that theory:
October 08, 2021, 11:22:36 PM
I am seriously interested if there is any data that backs this up;
It is just logic and observation.Quote
I mean the idea that there is not only a correlation between mempool size and Bitcoin price increase,
Not price increase, but price change which can be either increase or decrease. Also not all rise and falls would cause a spike, it has to be semi-significant. For example a 5% drop or 5% rise is not going to cause a fee spike but a 20% will.Quote
Because (unfortunately) many people leave their funds on the exchange.
True but when we are seeing a significant "movement", specially after a period of stability, there are a lot of traders who move their funds too. For example there is a large number of day traders who leave bitcoin market when it is stable to go to shitcoin market and pump and dump altcoins. As soon as bitcoin starts making rising they dump those shitcoins and move back to bitcoin market (which is why all altcoins dump against bitcoin). In many cases this requires a bitcoin withdrawal. Quote
So even if many people buy or many people sell, if it's all done on-exchange, there are no Bitcoin transactions needed.
That's true and we are ignoring those people as they have no effects on-chain. We focus on the other group who move their coins to and from exchanges to sell or have bought respectively. 
October 08, 2021, 10:34:23 PM
However, even if we saw a correlation, it still wouldn't prove causation.
I will partially agree with you that causation is probably not proven. But it is very difficult to demonstrate causation, and even more so through the simple observation of statistical phenomena.
I understand that the other forumers who affirm that it exists is by the observation of many years. If you see that a phenomenon happens only once after another, you cannot establish a causal relationship. But if years go by and you always see that one phenomenon happens after the other, and you've never seen an exception, you can begin to think that there is a causal relationship.
But if you mean proving it, as in being absolutely sure, it probably cannot be demonstrated.
October 08, 2021, 07:26:08 PM
You can start from here 
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1NDyJtNTjmwk5xPNhjgAMu4HDHigtobu1s
This is Binance's known address for withdrawals, if anything has changed in the pattern of usage it must be here.
Okay, so looking from June till now, it seems it went down in a relatively straight line until August, then up again until now. No insane movements in October, when looking at the big picture. https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1NDyJtNTjmwk5xPNhjgAMu4HDHigtobu1s
This is Binance's known address for withdrawals, if anything has changed in the pattern of usage it must be here.
Looking at the mempool chart, ever since July, when the mempool first 'hit the floor' in a long time, there have been lots of little spikes in relatively regular intervals, but purely pattern-based, the two charts don't seem very correlated.
However, even if we saw a correlation, it still wouldn't prove causation.
Binance address:
Mempool:
October 08, 2021, 12:33:18 PM
I don't like to be the one always saying 'told you so', but look, 2 days after I said 'wait a couple days', 1sat/vB transactions are mined again.. 
And just 4 hours alter the mempool still has 14Mb and the last block minimal fee was 12sat/vb
Again, it's a different situation than the one at the end of September, there was no rush to then to send transactions, there was no continuous spike in fees.
You can see that the previous spikes have not caused anything remarkable on the fees, just slight variations, these one is a bit more serious, the first one in months.
Not that the weekend isn't going to clear it up but still, it's different.
So even if many people buy or many people sell, if it's all done on-exchange, there are no Bitcoin transactions needed. Now, this is only a hypothesis as well; I don't have numbers for it.
You can start from here
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1NDyJtNTjmwk5xPNhjgAMu4HDHigtobu1s
This is Binance's known address for withdrawals, if anything has changed in the pattern of usage it must be here.
October 08, 2021, 11:56:26 AM
The assumption that the fees were going to remain high was to assume that we were entering a more or less sustained price increase, which seems quite reasonable [...]
I am seriously interested if there is any data that backs this up; I mean the idea that there is not only a correlation between mempool size and Bitcoin price increase, but also that it's the causation for it. Why I ask this? Because (unfortunately) many people leave their funds on the exchange. So even if many people buy or many people sell, if it's all done on-exchange, there are no Bitcoin transactions needed. Now, this is only a hypothesis as well; I don't have numbers for it.There must be some data showing it because a volatility rise normally always increases the fees (even some crashes have afaik).
The first wave of the current market sent us up to about 150 sats per byte. There also seem to be people tracking outflows from exchanges (although apparently glassnode is a paid for service) there might be ways to programmatically determine this if you wanted to though by looking at volume increases from an exchanges cold funds or making a withdraw (as a lot will be batched together or traceable).
October 08, 2021, 11:11:58 AM
Are you always right?
I'm not, I never said that The assumption that the fees were going to remain high was to assume that we were entering a more or less sustained price increase, which seems quite reasonable [...]
I am seriously interested if there is any data that backs this up; I mean the idea that there is not only a correlation between mempool size and Bitcoin price increase, but also that it's the causation for it. Why I ask this? Because (unfortunately) many people leave their funds on the exchange. So even if many people buy or many people sell, if it's all done on-exchange, there are no Bitcoin transactions needed. Now, this is only a hypothesis as well; I don't have numbers for it.In case you don't have any, I would look more into this topic when I find the time. It would be really interesting to see how many people actually hold their keys.
October 08, 2021, 09:35:54 AM
Prices can also go up simply by people withdrawing their bitcoin from the market (without actually selling) leaving others asking higher prices and getting those ask prices hence the number of transactions (and corresponding fees paid) aren't surging in size.
October 08, 2021, 08:56:45 AM
I don't like to be the one always saying 'told you so', but look, 2 days after I said 'wait a couple days', 1sat/vB transactions are mined again..
Are you always right?
Let's see if we don't have another nullius here.
I don't know if you have a crystal ball with which you can predict the future, but the assumption that the fees were going to remain high was to assume that we were entering a more or less sustained price increase, which seems quite reasonable according to what has happened in previous cycles and the predictive models that point to the fact that in this last quarter we are going to break the $65k ath and go beyond it. Minimum $100k.
As pooya87 says:
You can not make that prediction.
You see the main reason why fees go up are usually either a spam attack or a big price change (rise or fall). The reason for the current fee spike is the later and when you say "it will be cheap soon" you are actually predicting that price will soon become stable again which is not something you can predict specially now that price is rising faster than before breaking major resistances.
In other words if price rise continues this way, it will be a while before we see 1 sat/vb again.
You see the main reason why fees go up are usually either a spam attack or a big price change (rise or fall). The reason for the current fee spike is the later and when you say "it will be cheap soon" you are actually predicting that price will soon become stable again which is not something you can predict specially now that price is rising faster than before breaking major resistances.
In other words if price rise continues this way, it will be a while before we see 1 sat/vb again.
October 08, 2021, 08:35:20 AM
I don't like to be the one always saying 'told you so', but look, 2 days after I said 'wait a couple days', 1sat/vB transactions are mined again..
October 07, 2021, 09:38:05 AM
the block time is increasing
There's a site for that too: bitrawr.com: it shows there are actually a few more blocks found than expected since the last difficulty adjustment.Hihi, that's what we use instead of chart buddy in the difficulty speculation thread
You can see in this post of that the pace is actually going down slowly and steadily, we started the epoch with a 105-110% pace and we slowly dipped into negative. I would assume something really bad happened with some miners somewhere, some blackout, grid failure or something
But the ones paying attention probably have done what they could to avoid paying higher fees, we had months for consolidation, opening channels, securing your coins in cold wallets, we had half a year to buy that damn coffee with onchain transactions....
Or maybe that's the cause...it's getting colder and poeple buy coffee and hot tea with bitcoin...
Mystery solved, case closed!
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