The real predictions market...
Here is the gnosis interview
https://youtu.be/AKcd9YUeFD0
Topic: Augur - a decentralized prediction market platform - page 17. (Read 114205 times)
I don't know...I don't think they're really working on the project anymore. The last thing I heard was that the guy who created the truthcoin concept that Augur is based upon quit being an adviser and declared the project a failure. It's almost been a year and they've had 5 million dollars to work with....I'm pretty sure this project was just over marketed....I don't think they can build the platform they claimed they could build....not even with 5 million dollars.
We (the Augur developers) are still working on it. I don't know how anyone who spends even 30 seconds looking at our project's Github could conclude that we've ceased work on the project; all 6 of our main repositories have been updated (most of them multiple times) over the past day. The primary thing that 5 million dollars buys us is the freedom to take our time and really build a secure product. If you rush your product, you get The DAO.
We fired Paul (the Truthcoin guy) from his position as advisor when we found out that he'd been secretly competing with us, as this was a significant, undisclosed conflict-of-interest. FWIW, Augur has considerably more in common with the Schellingcoin and Princeton models than it does with Truthcoin.
I agree. This project was over hyped and the core developers left. A The actual idea is not Augurs. They just caught the momentum with eth. A lot of people are selling their augur holdings.
There are two core developers (me and Joey Krug) and we're both still here. Like most projects in this space, the "actual idea" behind Augur is a synthesis of a variety of concepts. There is indeed a lively market (on Reddit) for anyone interested in buying/selling.
The idea that our project is "over hyped" is fascinating. Where's the hype? If all we do is marketing, then why am I (one of the core developers) on here responding to you? Shouldn't we have a crack marketing team that handles this kind of stuff? How is it that people have apparently gotten the idea that our project is dead, if we do so much marketing?
The truth is that Augur is (and always has been) a developer-led team, and we prefer to spend our time working on the product. If you're truly concerned about our progress, I encourage you to look at our Github, and/or join our Slack.
I'm glad that I saw this post and that you are active. I'm new to the Cryptocurrency thing and came here because I got into the rabbit hole of decentralized PMs. Just read the case against Augur blog and the fact he didn't even mention Gnosis discredited a lot of what he said. I would like to know one thing, the reasoning behind Ethereum over Bitcoin. There seems to be a lot of criticism about this which is the biggest reason I haven't fully supported what you are doing.
The other question was what level of involvement Robin Hanson and Ron Bernstein have had in the project? I recently watched the video of Ron talking with someone from your team. His support is one of the other reasons I've been more interested in what you are doing versus Hivemind and Gnosis.
With some of the responses and posts I've read here, I find it commendable that you posted here and replied to everyone. I'd invite you to stop by the twoplustwo forums sometime, there's plenty of us who follow prediction markets and we've talked about Augur before. I think they would have some great questions and would be a much better environment if you want to communicate with PM users.
Quote
To whom it concerns, I found it interesting.
http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/
http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/
not news, you can read discussion of this
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3x8wqn/the_case_against_augur/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Augur/comments/3x8yeq/the_case_against_augur/
Ugh, I read that and feel like I need a shower. Its a long, jealous, unhinged rant full of personal attacks and insults. I saw not even one single substantive critique. Also 'bitcoinhivemind.com' is the website of one of augur's competitors, which makes this blog post feel even slimier (if that is possible). I personally have doubts about augur (and ethereum), but if this dreck is the strongest case against them then maybe I mis-judged them and they will succeed after all.
I don't know...I don't think they're really working on the project anymore. The last thing I heard was that the guy who created the truthcoin concept that Augur is based upon quit being an adviser and declared the project a failure. It's almost been a year and they've had 5 million dollars to work with....I'm pretty sure this project was just over marketed....I don't think they can build the platform they claimed they could build....not even with 5 million dollars.
We (the Augur developers) are still working on it. I don't know how anyone who spends even 30 seconds looking at our project's Github could conclude that we've ceased work on the project; all 6 of our main repositories have been updated (most of them multiple times) over the past day. The primary thing that 5 million dollars buys us is the freedom to take our time and really build a secure product. If you rush your product, you get The DAO.
We fired Paul (the Truthcoin guy) from his position as advisor when we found out that he'd been secretly competing with us, as this was a significant, undisclosed conflict-of-interest. FWIW, Augur has considerably more in common with the Schellingcoin and Princeton models than it does with Truthcoin.
I agree. This project was over hyped and the core developers left. A The actual idea is not Augurs. They just caught the momentum with eth. A lot of people are selling their augur holdings.
There are two core developers (me and Joey Krug) and we're both still here. Like most projects in this space, the "actual idea" behind Augur is a synthesis of a variety of concepts. There is indeed a lively market (on Reddit) for anyone interested in buying/selling.
The idea that our project is "over hyped" is fascinating. Where's the hype? If all we do is marketing, then why am I (one of the core developers) on here responding to you? Shouldn't we have a crack marketing team that handles this kind of stuff? How is it that people have apparently gotten the idea that our project is dead, if we do so much marketing?
The truth is that Augur is (and always has been) a developer-led team, and we prefer to spend our time working on the product. If you're truly concerned about our progress, I encourage you to look at our Github, and/or join our Slack.
...and you say?
http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/
To whom it concerns, I found it interesting.
http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/
http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/
tinybike hi.
I'm confused with report. How it work? What if augur will be have thousands events every day?, rep holders cant report about all. En example: we have 2000 holders and 1 mln events - if this be random and every 10 holders give 5000 events? And if 1 holders from this group will be have more than 50% and he made a mistake, what then?
Next, i hear about argus. This program will be help us vote? But this program will be work on servers not in blockchain ethereum? So can be disabled
Do not you think that a liquid market able to determine the winner own, without rep holders, because when events finished, the probability of the winning side is committed to 100%. And it can very ease work for the rep holders
I'm confused with report. How it work? What if augur will be have thousands events every day?, rep holders cant report about all. En example: we have 2000 holders and 1 mln events - if this be random and every 10 holders give 5000 events? And if 1 holders from this group will be have more than 50% and he made a mistake, what then?
Next, i hear about argus. This program will be help us vote? But this program will be work on servers not in blockchain ethereum? So can be disabled
Do not you think that a liquid market able to determine the winner own, without rep holders, because when events finished, the probability of the winning side is committed to 100%. And it can very ease work for the rep holders
Nice platform, i like it, but is it possible to make a data feed in Augur with
for instance an -hourly fiat exchange rate update-?
for instance an -hourly fiat exchange rate update-?
Thanks! We're trying to keep the basic interface simple and functional for the time being, so if we did add something like that, it would be down the road when we're adding visual bells-and-whistles.
I understand that there is no need to rush and you want to be sure the product is safe and secure, but could you give us an approximated ETA for the release of the platform with actual REP token on it?
We'd really like to have the live platform out before the U.S. elections. However, it's hard to give an actual ETA because it totally depends on how our security audits go. This is our first time going through a formal security audit, so we don't have a good sense of how long it will take / how much iteration (if any) will be needed to "green-light" it.
1) Why not to make this platform completely separate from ETH or any other DAPP system. Just make your own DAPPs system, POS based, with shareholders as nodes in it. And since Etherium was/is going to switch to POS, level of security should be the same.
2) For deposits you can use Bitcoin lightning network (in the future) or any other crypto-currency.
It will make the market:
1) independent from ether or other currency.
2) more income for shareholders.
3) more intensive for them to run a node - more security
4) faster speed of network.
Of course, it will only work if the project team would be independent from ETH team. Otherwise, it would be a conflict of interest as in case of The Dao and the recipe for disaster.
2) For deposits you can use Bitcoin lightning network (in the future) or any other crypto-currency.
It will make the market:
1) independent from ether or other currency.
2) more income for shareholders.
3) more intensive for them to run a node - more security
4) faster speed of network.
Of course, it will only work if the project team would be independent from ETH team. Otherwise, it would be a conflict of interest as in case of The Dao and the recipe for disaster.
1) The reasons we decided to build Augur on top of Ethereum (rather than as an independent blockchain) are detailed in this blog post. The very short reason is, building on Ethereum allowed us to focus solely on our business logic, without needing to program, deploy, and secure our own blockchain.
2) Augur will ultimately be currency agnostic. It will support all tokens that use Ethereum's subcurrency API, including the stablecoins in development on Ethereum. Bitcoin will also be natively supported via BTCRelay, a sidechain linking the Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains. (Easy integration with other projects in Ethereum's ecosystem is another significant benefit to building on Ethereum.) Bitcoin integration won't be part of the initial launch, but it is the first big feature we'd like to implement after launch.
The only overlap between the Augur and Ethereum teams is Vitalik; he's one of our advisors. Our technical efforts are separate from those of the Ethereum core team. Augur pre-dates most of the general-use contract programming and JS tools in circulation now. As a result, we have our own custom-built stack on top of Ethereum. This relatively narrow focus has some security and efficiency advantages; for example, two of the tools that have been the most error-prone (the Solidity language and the web3 JSON RPC tool) are entirely absent from Augur's stack.
I do not know if someone mentioned it before.
However, I would suggest, some changes for such project.
1) Why not to make this platform completely separate from ETH or any other DAPP system. Just make your own DAPPs system, POS based, with shareholders as nodes in it. And since Etherium was/is going to switch to POS, level of security should be the same.
2) For deposits you can use Bitcoin lightning network (in the future) or any other crypto-currency.
It will make the market:
1) independent from ether or other currency.
2) more income for shareholders.
3) more intensive for them to run a node - more security
4) faster speed of network.
Of course, it will only work if the project team would be independent from ETH team. Otherwise, it would be a conflict of interest as in case of The Dao and the recipe for disaster.
However, I would suggest, some changes for such project.
1) Why not to make this platform completely separate from ETH or any other DAPP system. Just make your own DAPPs system, POS based, with shareholders as nodes in it. And since Etherium was/is going to switch to POS, level of security should be the same.
2) For deposits you can use Bitcoin lightning network (in the future) or any other crypto-currency.
It will make the market:
1) independent from ether or other currency.
2) more income for shareholders.
3) more intensive for them to run a node - more security
4) faster speed of network.
Of course, it will only work if the project team would be independent from ETH team. Otherwise, it would be a conflict of interest as in case of The Dao and the recipe for disaster.
@tinybike
I understand that there is no need to rush and you want to be sure the product is safe and secure, but could you give us an approximated ETA for the release of the platform with actual REP token on it?
I understand that there is no need to rush and you want to be sure the product is safe and secure, but could you give us an approximated ETA for the release of the platform with actual REP token on it?
Nice platform, i like it, but is it possible to make a data feed in Augur with
for instance an -hourly fiat exchange rate update-?
for instance an -hourly fiat exchange rate update-?
Thanks! Now I'm fully oriented and understand the big picture. Best of luck on the project and I look forward to future updates. I am subscribed to the Augur newsletter. And I'm subscribed to this forum.
You're most welcome! I'm glad I could help
Hello tinybike,
Thanks! Now I'm fully oriented and understand the big picture. Best of luck on the project and I look forward to future updates. I am subscribed to the Augur newsletter. And I'm subscribed to this forum.
Thanks again,
Kind Regards,
Thanks! Now I'm fully oriented and understand the big picture. Best of luck on the project and I look forward to future updates. I am subscribed to the Augur newsletter. And I'm subscribed to this forum.
Thanks again,
Kind Regards,
I'm a cryptocurrency newbie. Thanks for the info. I purchased some REP on 18 Aug 2015. From what I can gather, when its ready, you'll activate the next phase of the Augur system. And then REP will once again be traded on the exchanges. Is my understanding correct?
Yes, that's correct.
A few months ago when I saw the price collapse of REP on the price charts (bravenewcoin.com and others) I had no idea what was going on. And was naturally worried.
The REP price you saw on the charts was actually the price of REP IOU's sold by a single exchange (Gatecoin). They participated in the token sale and were selling IOUs for their tokens to people on their exchange. As I understand it, their exchange was hacked and went offline, and after that the price chart websites just didn't have any sources of data for REP any longer.
Long story short: the REP price shown on the charts was probably not accurate to begin with, as it represented a REP IOU (rather than actual REP tokens) and the volume traded was quite small. The only concrete market price for REP is the price at the conclusion of the token sale ($0.59/REP, if I remember correctly).
Other than reddit, is Augur REP active on some exchange such that it has a market value that is listed on some price chart? I searched and haven't found any.
I've heard people are trading small amounts of REP IOUs through one of the Ripple gateways (Gatehub, I think?). As with Gatecoin's "REP", it's important to know that these are just IOUs. For legal reasons, real (non-IOU) REP will not be tradeable on exchanges until Augur's live release.
Will you email out Augur newsletters to keep subscribers updated? What is the best way to receive updates on Augur progress?
Yes, we do have a newsletter. There's a signup for the newsletter on our landing page. We limit the newsletters to relatively big news items to keep it from feeling spammy.
For the REP I purchased in Aug 2015, do I need to do anything with it? Or just let it sit until the next phase of Augur is launched?
Just let it sit for now. There will be a "dry run" (probably in a month or so) where we'll distribute "play" REP using the same distribution mechanism the live release will use. This will be 100% optional and the only reason to participate in this is if you'd like to help us test. Otherwise, there's nothing you need to do until Augur's live release.
Thanks again for keeping us updated.
Thanks for participating in the token sale. Maybe we've been too quiet lately, but we really do appreciate your vote of confidence in us
Also, I think I remember seeing that the REP sold in Aug 2015 is a "test" version of REP that will get converted to "real" REP at some point. This true? Any details most appreciated. Thanks.
No, that's not true. There will be a "test" version of REP distributed (to make sure the distribution mechanism is secure / works correctly, as mentioned above), but the REP sold in the token sale is definitely real REP, and will be distributed when Augur launches.
Also, I think I remember seeing that the REP sold in Aug 2015 is a "test" version of REP that will get converted to "real" REP at some point. This true? Any details most appreciated. Thanks.
Hello tinybike,
I'm a cryptocurrency newbie. Thanks for the info. I purchased some REP on 18 Aug 2015. From what I can gather, when its ready, you'll activate the next phase of the Augur system. And then REP will once again be traded on the exchanges. Is my understanding correct?
A few months ago when I saw the price collapse of REP on the price charts (bravenewcoin.com and others) I had no idea what was going on. And was naturally worried.
Other than reddit, is Augur REP active on some exchange such that it has a market value that is listed on some price chart? I searched and haven't found any.
Will you email out Augur newsletters to keep subscribers updated? What is the best way to receive updates on Augur progress?
For the REP I purchased in Aug 2015, do I need to do anything with it? Or just let it sit until the next phase of Augur is launched?
Thanks again for keeping us updated.
Kind Regards,
I'm a cryptocurrency newbie. Thanks for the info. I purchased some REP on 18 Aug 2015. From what I can gather, when its ready, you'll activate the next phase of the Augur system. And then REP will once again be traded on the exchanges. Is my understanding correct?
A few months ago when I saw the price collapse of REP on the price charts (bravenewcoin.com and others) I had no idea what was going on. And was naturally worried.
Other than reddit, is Augur REP active on some exchange such that it has a market value that is listed on some price chart? I searched and haven't found any.
Will you email out Augur newsletters to keep subscribers updated? What is the best way to receive updates on Augur progress?
For the REP I purchased in Aug 2015, do I need to do anything with it? Or just let it sit until the next phase of Augur is launched?
Thanks again for keeping us updated.
Kind Regards,
I don't know...I don't think they're really working on the project anymore. The last thing I heard was that the guy who created the truthcoin concept that Augur is based upon quit being an adviser and declared the project a failure. It's almost been a year and they've had 5 million dollars to work with....I'm pretty sure this project was just over marketed....I don't think they can build the platform they claimed they could build....not even with 5 million dollars.
We (the Augur developers) are still working on it. I don't know how anyone who spends even 30 seconds looking at our project's Github could conclude that we've ceased work on the project; all 6 of our main repositories have been updated (most of them multiple times) over the past day. The primary thing that 5 million dollars buys us is the freedom to take our time and really build a secure product. If you rush your product, you get The DAO.
We fired Paul (the Truthcoin guy) from his position as advisor when we found out that he'd been secretly competing with us, as this was a significant, undisclosed conflict-of-interest. FWIW, Augur has considerably more in common with the Schellingcoin and Princeton models than it does with Truthcoin.
I agree. This project was over hyped and the core developers left. A The actual idea is not Augurs. They just caught the momentum with eth. A lot of people are selling their augur holdings.
There are two core developers (me and Joey Krug) and we're both still here. Like most projects in this space, the "actual idea" behind Augur is a synthesis of a variety of concepts. There is indeed a lively market (on Reddit) for anyone interested in buying/selling.
The idea that our project is "over hyped" is fascinating. Where's the hype? If all we do is marketing, then why am I (one of the core developers) on here responding to you? Shouldn't we have a crack marketing team that handles this kind of stuff? How is it that people have apparently gotten the idea that our project is dead, if we do so much marketing?
The truth is that Augur is (and always has been) a developer-led team, and we prefer to spend our time working on the product. If you're truly concerned about our progress, I encourage you to look at our Github, and/or join our Slack.
where i can find price of ICO with bonus for early birds, raise money and timeline?
What happened with this? Would've love to see Augur utilize Factom when they anchor into Ethereum. I have a bet that Donald Trump will win presidency with a friend of mine.. I don't necessarily agree with what he says but I liked the odds in the start of the year at 1:3 the money. Do you think I win?
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