I'm with you as far as BFL/Josh/Inaba's word goes. I wouldn't invest a thin dime based on what he or anyone else at BFL says(if there is anyone else at BFL) w/o solid evidence at this point...but that's just my opinion and my dime. I do however believe in ngzhang, Cablepair, and friedcat. If Tom wanted to really screw folks that pre-ordered his products he'd not have announced a two month delay that has understandably rattled many(myself included), he'd have announced a 2 week delay x4.
The when of ASIC mining gear is admittedly still up in the air, but the second reputable company's shipping deadline is approaching so the clock is ticking.
100% agreed. While it sucks the bASIC got delayed, I would much rather have it handled the way Tom did. Honestly I wouldn't have minded BFL's delays as much if in October they just said 'sorry, there is a delay. We will ship mid December' instead of October, I promise. End of October. Sorry delayed til first week Novemeber. Sorry delayed again mid November. End of November, I promise. Little delay again first week December, I promise. Ok ok this time I pinky swear promise, mid December.
Thing is, each of BFL's delays was for an individual reason. It wasn't that they knew they wouldn't ship until December back in October, or they would have said so.
Estimated ship date, provided nothing went wrong, was late October. As October neared, they looked at the parts that still needed to come in and revised their estimate to early November. Then, the chips needed a revision, so they delayed to late November, which is when they expected their new chips to come in. Chip run was delayed to December, so they revised again to 12/11. I'm not sure if 12/11 is when they are receiving the chips or are expecting the units to be assembled, but time will tell I suppose.
So, sure, they could have arbitrarily given a December date way back in June, but why? When they were expecting to ship in late October, provided everything went smoothly, why not say that they expect to ship in October, provided everything goes smoothly? And then when delays happened, why not state that they were delayed, and when the new expected ship date would be, provided there were no other unforseen delays? That's what they did, and I don't have any problems with it. I know that this sort of development is tricky, and that there could be delays for a variety of reasons, but I wanted to know the "best case scenario" ship date anyway. I've always viewed late October as a best-case scenario ship date, never as an expected ship date.
I don't see anything nonsensical in the way BFL handled the situation myself.