Topic: bad news for bASIC - not shipping til mid Jan at best - page 15. (Read 25502 times)

Got it from vircurex, but the actual hashrate isn't the point, nor is the growing hashrate of LTC. The point to my mind is that BTC difficulty is low and may be dropping further with the delay of ASICs from two of the three companies.

As for estimating the chances of success from the three companies, while I agree it's subjective, I reserve that call for myself.

Avalon:
At this point I believe Avalon will be first out of the gate though their first order was small(300ish?). The odds that Avalon is a scam is near 0% to my mind. I do not care for their choice of 110nm or the stand alone aspect of their product, but I do understand their choice in both instances.

BTCFPGA/Bitcoinasic.net:
Next up is BTCFPGA in my mind. Yeah they had a big setback and Tom was AOL with some undisclosed family matters, but I believe their issues can and will be addressed. This company has/had a good reputation for meeting timelines/specs. Also they're the cheapest per Gh, and now by a significant margin. Very low chance they're a scam to my mind < 10%.

BFL:
I believe they will be last despite announcing first. They do not yet have chips and the chips are coming from Asia. They've announced flaws with their past chip revisions and then retracted and said they just wanted to make them more perfect. Repeated delays and a general lack of straight answers as well as a history of delays and missed specs makes me doubt this company can pull everything together before either of the others. Highest chance they're a scam, but still < 25% IMO.

Lastly, though I did find the exchanges between Tom and Inaba/Josh rather disturbing and unprofessional I do not see evidence that Tom reacts this way to customers or potential customers, rather he's very friendly and personable when not involved in an exchange with Josh. I've spoken to Tom on the phone and I trust my instincts, he'll come through. Inaba/Josh on the other hand treats nearly anyone and everyone with disdain and contempt. I cannot do business with this company as long as they employ such a man as their COO.
 

Because it's not just a bit more.  It's a HUGE amount more.  The people who gets the first asics and mine at a difficulty of 3M will make as much in one week as the people who get ASICs afterward will make in 2 months.  It's a huge sum of money at stake... one for which many people (myself included) are willing to gamble on.

I doubt any of the three are scammers (at least purposefully).  I think they will all deliver.  So in my opinion, it is a 33% chance that I will be one of the first ASIC miners vs a 100% chance that I will not be.

Where did you get this data?

bitcoincharts.com:


Can you estimate the chances of success for each company? I don't.

Because of this:



...also I don't believe each company has an equal 33% chance of shipping first or of being a scam.

good decision. If you buy preorder from one of the 3 companies you have a 33% chance that you will be one of the first ASIC miners . Why risk 100% of your money (in the event of fraud or bankruptcy) for 33% chance to earn a bit more money than the others ? If you wait until one of the companies will be the first and you will buy from them ASIC (existing), you have a 99% chance that you will not be scammed and 66% chance that you will not be  one of last ASIC miner .

Agreed. Not ready to pull the plug just yet, though I've thought about it many times. I'd pull the plug in a heartbeat if I didn't still believe I've ordered from the right company. I have to admit though that Avalon looks better every day.

+1

Until you got what you paid for in your hands, you just paid for lip service. That's all i have seen so far. All the drama associated with this new hardware has taken a lot of the appeal out of mining. Also the unprofessional outbursts that Tom and Inaba have at times just adds to that. Not sure if i want to be held hostage to those types of companies. I got my money back, and i hope they get there acts together.

Something has happened, I sent money to BTCFPGA as did a lot of other people...but, yeah GPUs still work and if you have low/zero power costs and/or can benefit from the heat they generate then mining something with them still may make sense. I'm still mining with GPUs at this time, though between BFL, BTCFPGA, Avalon, and the Mayan calendar I think it's safe to say the end is near for the vast majority of GPU BTC miners.

Until something is released, nothing happened. I minned a lot more coins with my gpus than i did with asics. Until mid january rolls around or full specs and pictures of a complete product are released there really isn't anymore discussion needed in this thread. Good luck to the developers.

Correct. No case, no power supply. It is...well...bASIC.

Isn't it caseless or something?

Probably trying to score brownie points with Josh.

why do you think Tom's product is not a quality product?

Too bad bets of bitcoin doesn't allow for a pick a date type of contest. A little bet on when the first price drop after release will be would be interesting.

Some want to be the first to lose their cherry. Others are afraid of the shadows they created in their mind. It seams like Bitcointalk has many from both of these two groups.

I personally want a quality product, not Tom's product.

and the price drops like a motherf@#%a!

True.. but if bfl again doesn,t deliver i just means probably no one will.. only if one of the companies shows a working chip around christmas..and were i live there are not many miners but there are a lot of gamers around so reselling gpu to a fair price is better then wait over and over again  pre order isn,t good for me i don,t have to be an first guy to have them, i just buy them after the hype is over ...

That would be kind of stupid, with 2 or 3 other vendors so close to delivering their product in January. Either way gamble and buy more gpu's now (I do not advice that) or pre-order asic's at will.

They'll deliver, but when is not really known. The real scam are the interest free loans these companies are receiving. I guess it's not there fault the bitcoin community is so easy to string along. Good luck guys.