Date: 26-Jul-2014
VWAP: 594.47
x: 1470
a: 0.00593
b: -1.76796
Rsq: 0.90078
The day's expected price: 1035.47
Predicted date for today's price: 23-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -93.65
Daily price rank: 156
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 14-Aug-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00592555826420775++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.7679641516586+%29
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 42. (Read 110400 times)
------------------------
Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------
tl;dr:
ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:
We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin
-----------------------------
Hello !
Today it is 26 Jul 2014, and NO ATH occurred..
Price of the Bitcoin, is ~ $590 and still descending ...
And it will keep going lower, since there are more bad news than there are good ones.
But its hard to realy predict what will happen, noone expected btc to reach 1000+ mark but still out of the blue it happened.
------------------------
Date: 16 Feb 2014
VWAP = 625.45
x = 1310
a = 0.006037
b = -1.82098
Rsq = 0.871816
Today's expected price = 440.0484
Predicted date for today's price = 15 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 58
Daily price rank = 84
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 26 Jul 2014
------------------------
tl;dr:
ASSUMING the bitcoin price is growing with an exponential trend in long-term:
We expect bitcoin price to grow by about (1 - e^a) = (1 - e^0.006037) = 0.6055% per day
87.1816% (Rsq) of the variation in bitcoin price could be explained solely by time (which is very high)
The long-term "fair" price of today is only 440.0484. We are outpacing the long-term trend.
We expect to see today's price (625.45) on 15 Apr 2014, which is 58 days later
We expect to see ATH (1126) on 26 Jul 2014
Today's price is the 84th highest in the history of bitcoin
-----------------------------
Hello !
Today it is 26 Jul 2014, and NO ATH occurred..
Price of the Bitcoin, is ~ $590 and still descending ...
It's recovering, but we are still trading at 74% of the trend line, or 50 days behind it.
Date: 25-May-2014
VWAP: 565.30
x: 1408
a: 0.00599
b: -1.80043
Rsq: 0.89174
The day's expected price: 763.31
Predicted date for today's price: 4-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -50.11
Daily price rank: 119
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 3-Aug-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00599296718203962++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.80042714221527+%29
VWAP: 565.30
x: 1408
a: 0.00599
b: -1.80043
Rsq: 0.89174
The day's expected price: 763.31
Predicted date for today's price: 4-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -50.11
Daily price rank: 119
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 3-Aug-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00599296718203962++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.80042714221527+%29
You mean higher? I saw it would be easier to go to 1500-1700 if price was 800 than from 400 to 1700.
This bear market is worse than the 2013 one
It kinda makes me think we are gonna come back harder then ever when this bearmarket is over
Thank you for the postings. Yes, this market is sad. And boring.
This bear market is worse than the 2013 one
Date: 1-May-2014
VWAP: 458.55
x: 1384
a: 0.00603
b: -1.81597
Rsq: 0.88827
The day's expected price: 681.62
Predicted date for today's price: 24-Feb-2014
Days ahead: -65.78
Daily price rank: 148
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 28-Jul-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00602633100156526++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.81596922051291+%29
VWAP: 458.55
x: 1384
a: 0.00603
b: -1.81597
Rsq: 0.88827
The day's expected price: 681.62
Predicted date for today's price: 24-Feb-2014
Days ahead: -65.78
Daily price rank: 148
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 28-Jul-2014
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00602633100156526++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.81596922051291+%29
Thanks, it looks nice. The tops are neatly aligned.
What I mentioned concerning "my" trendline, the signals can only be calibrated after the event, so yours as well as mine would have started to predict events only in 2013 - before that there was only noise. Moreover, your line anticipated going really low vs. the trend in the mid-2013 bottom, and the followers would not have bought at all, losing the runup to $1000, whereas mine gave a correct buy signal at $70, which was calibrated in 10/2011 bottom by taking its trendline value.
Both seem to indicate that this is a buy zone, or what do you think?
What I mentioned concerning "my" trendline, the signals can only be calibrated after the event, so yours as well as mine would have started to predict events only in 2013 - before that there was only noise. Moreover, your line anticipated going really low vs. the trend in the mid-2013 bottom, and the followers would not have bought at all, losing the runup to $1000, whereas mine gave a correct buy signal at $70, which was calibrated in 10/2011 bottom by taking its trendline value.
Both seem to indicate that this is a buy zone, or what do you think?
There is no reliable buy signal from this plot
Well, obviously buy at any price below zero would have served anyone well. I'd say something like this works well - <0 - oversold, start buying batches, >1 - overbought, start selling batches. For a long-term speculative play, this is a no-brainer (thanks btw for the thread and all).
Since I am also interested in the model, care someone tell, if the model in his opinion has predictive value, and does it give buy/sell signals or zones or anything?
y-axis is ln(price/trend)
It seems a bubble is likely to pop when the price is e^1.5 = 4.48 times over the trend line.
Using 1.5 as cut-off.......
in the first bubble, one would have sold at $17.16 on 04/06/2011, 5 days before the bubble pop but only 53% of the bubble top
in the second bubble, one would have sold at $211.97 on 09/04/2013, just the day before the bubble pop with 79.7% of the bubble top
in the latest bubble, one would have sold at $976 on 28/11/2013, 7 days before the bubble pop with 84.6% of the bubble top
So the advice could be to start selling when it is over by 4.48 times. Sell more when it goes higher.
There is no reliable buy signal from this plot
Since I am also interested in the model, care someone tell, if the model in his opinion has predictive value, and does it give buy/sell signals or zones or anything?
[...]
I've been participating in this thread (on-topic) since February 26th.
My apologies to jl2012 for my part in the recent thread derailment.
That said, I stand behind my above on-topic statements: jl2012's model (and its presentation) is, by a large margin, the most mature regression model posted in this subforum since I've been around (April last year).
You tell if either of us has brought any on-topic input to the thread! The other has to leave (or both, in case both are just blathering).
I don't know what problem oda.krell has with me. If someone can buy 20 castles, it means that he has invested better than me. How about giving us mortals some tips then? Oda.krell himself can hardly buy 3 used Ferraris... (this is a real-life example how one bitcoiner's wealth was described in a meetup - ability to buy 3 Ferraris)
Don't worry too much about how my investments turned out. I can buy about as many used Ferraris as you have hair on your head
Seriously though, in case you didn't get the point I made: there are several people on btctalk compared to whom you are small fish. They still have the good sense no to walk around pretending to be knowledgeable TAers. Ergo: if they don't, you definitely shouldn't.
you guys with your petty dispute are turning one of the (few) threads with content on this subforum to another dick-measuring contest, sad and not interesting to read. just saying.
I don't know what problem oda.krell has with me. If someone can buy 20 castles, it means that he has invested better than me. How about giving us mortals some tips then? Oda.krell himself can hardly buy 3 used Ferraris... (this is a real-life example how one bitcoiner's wealth was described in a meetup - ability to buy 3 Ferraris)
Don't worry too much about how my investments turned out. I can buy about as many used Ferraris as you have hair on your head
Seriously though, in case you didn't get the point I made: there are several people on btctalk compared to whom you are small fish. They still have the good sense no to walk around pretending to be knowledgeable TAers. Ergo: if they don't, you definitely shouldn't.
Asserting something that goes blatantly against provable and proven facts is considered lying, is it not, Mr. President?
(I am very much aware that most of the dozens of people who have more coins than me read the forum, but also know that my trading skills are above average evidenced by the results.)
I don't know what problem oda.krell has with me. If someone can buy 20 castles, it means that he has invested better than me. How about giving us mortals some tips then? Oda.krell himself can hardly buy 3 used Ferraris... (this is a real-life example how one bitcoiner's wealth was described in a meetup - ability to buy 3 Ferraris)
Don't worry too much about how my investments turned out. I can buy about as many used Ferraris as you have hair on your head :)
Seriously though, in case you didn't get the point I made: there are several people on btctalk compared to whom you are small fish. They still have the good sense no to walk around pretending to be knowledgeable TAers. Ergo: if they don't, you definitely shouldn't.
...
Again you are entitled to your opinion, just don't forget that I bought a castle with the proceeds I made with following my trendline. Bullshit walks.
Again you are entitled to your opinion, just don't forget that I bought a castle with the proceeds I made with following my trendline. Bullshit walks.
Actually the really tricky part was avoiding a million dollar plus "goxing" of the proceeds at the eleventh hour of the MTGox collapse.
"Avoiding" is the wrong word here, I just sold them in the open market to guys whose perception of the Mt.Gox risk was different enough from mine. I still need to find a way to explain the loss to taxman. And I still lost $250k. Of course now I tap myself on the back for being smart, but if Mt.Gox has continued operations and resumed withdrawals, I would not be so smug
I don't know what problem oda.krell has with me. If someone can buy 20 castles, it means that he has invested better than me. How about giving us mortals some tips then? Oda.krell himself can hardly buy 3 used Ferraris... (this is a real-life example how one bitcoiner's wealth was described in a meetup - ability to buy 3 Ferraris)
Surely there is no guarantee that the "my" trendline has predictive ability. Actually it's enough to be correct 52% of the time. I believe there is more than 52% chance that the current buy signal is correct and no material downside is left.
Sorry OP for threadjack. I think you are doing good job.
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