Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 37. (Read 110414 times)

You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.




1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 (its marketcap) was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all.
2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market.
3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year.
4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your long term BTCullish BTCeanies BTCitcoin scenarios.


What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like a textbook penny stock pump&dump, CURRENTLY ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US.
Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think?

IF the trend continues, then yes, but there are no guarantees.
something does not compute for me though, and that is the relentless drive down despite growth in use, etc, etc.
I have been taught by my prior investments to not buy a depreciating asset because it can go to zero or close.

We very well may be:

This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.

Good that you are defending the exponential model I am joining the ranks again soon after finding some time..

Just like any technical analysis, the estimates will (of course!) change every day with latest information.

i am not sure why the numerical coefficient in your formula keeps changing.
this change means that you simply adjust the formula to better fit the data-am I correct or is this change automatic?

Well, what did you expect to come from a user named "altcoin hitler", registered a week ago or so 

^^^^^
he means looooooongterm 

The analysis you cite is flawed for 3 reasons:

1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32.

2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200.

3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively.

This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience.

bitcoin no longer trades exponential, it trades linear

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-went-out-of-exponential-trend-into-linear-downtrend-ta-inside-943674

My analysis is a bit different from traditional trendline analysis, as I won't use information in the future to explain the price action in the past.

it appears that buying in $170-220 area was OK as long as the overall trend persists. However, we will be able to see that only after the fact.

Just discovered this thread, fantastic analysis.

Thought I might as well share my long term chart here too.



If the slope of the trendlines are still holding it looks like price might be at best bargain since 2010 before the first MtGox bubble! Thats only 'IF' trend holds. Interesting line to keep an eye on though. Looking forward to the next bull run!

man, i start to salivate looking at this chart. soon^TM...

Update:

Date:    1-Feb-2015
VWAP:    221.57
x:    1660
a:    0.00534
b:    -1.46036
Rsq:    0.88793
The day's expected price:    1645.57
Actual price / expected price:   13.46%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -2.005
VWAP to break the -2.23 all-time-low:   177.17 NEW!
VWAP to break the +1.87 all-time-high:   10653.22 NEW!
Predicted date for today's price:    21-Jan-2014
Days ahead:    -375.41
Daily price rank:    443
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00534108738429767++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.46036061998383+%29   
   

   

The trend seems to not have reached even its previous low value 3 years ago. Hard to believe anything significant has happened. Anyone not willing to operate in a timescale of 3-5 years should not even invest in common stock, let alone anything interesting 

Buy now or bite your nails forever 

+1.5? That would be $7300 today

it depends how fast it will go up, but if 2011-2013 was to repeat itself, which I don't expect, AND this trend sustaining itself (a major doubt as well), then probably at least roughly X100-125 from the bottom (see previous lows and highs) or to ~$19,000-20,000. I am not sure that we won't double dip to establish the bottom within <=1mo, but btc does not have to follow the trend as depicted here, but I wish that it will.

What price would a +1.5 be?