Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 45. (Read 110400 times)

It includes price before MtGox opened, which I don't think the data is reliable nor practically meaningful

mccoyspace made an autoupdating link for rpietilla's trendline. We're on 742$ today on his one. Could you use wolframalhpa to make a link like this for your trend?

Post - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5391481

Link for trendline price -

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+since+jan+3%2C+2009%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

following & thanks for your efforts (also thanks for your SecondMarket Observer thread)
donation to follow during the next days.

ok, thanks

I will update once a few days but not automatic. As this is a long-term trend, you don't really need a daily update. The trend line is growing by about 0.6062%, or $3 per day at current price.

Is there any place where I could check trend line and where it is updated automatically?

Please PM me if you want a copy of the Excel spreadsheet. Also many thanks to the one who donated 0.05XBT to me

This is the residual plot, i.e., the difference between the Series 1 and Series 2 of my last chart. It seems a bubble is likely to pop when the price is e^1.5 = 4.48 times over the trend line.

For the first bubble, one would have sold at $17.16 on 04/06/2011, 5 days before the bubble pop but only 53% of the bubble top

For the second bubble, one would have sold at $211.97 on 09/04/2013, just the day before the bubble pop with 79.7% of the bubble top

For the latest bubble, one would have sold at $976 on 28/11/2013, 7 days before the bubble pop with 84.6% of the bubble top

So the advice could be to start selling when it is over by 4.48 times. Sell more when it goes higher.

For buying, it seems any pirce below or near the trend line would be okay, except for the bear market after first bubble

First thing I want to say first: thanks for the diligent work. Seriously.

Second thing: Care to make the (R, I guess) script available so others can play with it? Wouldn't be unusual to tie it to a btc donation though, btw.


Anyway... what I really wanted to say: I've said several times in different threads that also use log-linear model for price analysis that I'm generally critical about using this method, at least if the goal is active trading. The problem is of course how actual price relates to the price predicted by the regression -- in the sense that any actual trading signals are very imprecise, and can be off by an order of magnitude if interpreted naively.

(sorry if I'm not getting my point across concisely, big flaw of mine) What I mean is this: most of the time when I've seen people posting regression analysis, they take price going *above* the regression prediction as a sell signal ("We're above the target"), and price going below as a buy signal. If they would have traded like that, they would have ended up at a huge loss compared to buy&hold (e.g. they would have had to re-buy much higher in 2013, after selling way too early). Note please that I'm not saying you're giving that advice, but my point is: regression analysis has to be interpreted somehow, and it is not obvious how to interpret it, in my opinion.

Here is one preliminary observation, or attempt at a slightly less "naive" trading model based on regression: Except for 2011, we tend to stay below the loglinear trendline much shorter than above. So selling if we go *above* the line is probably less warranted than buying when we go *below*. Very crude first attempt, I know, but I'd like to get the discussion started.

EDIT: hahaha, just noticed, you're a member since 2012. Probably don't feel the need to ask for mBTC donations :D

y-axis is ln(price)
Blue line is the daily VWAP
Red line is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line.
Green line is the current regression line

Yesterday we broke the trend line but the VWAP was still a bit over it. We were only 4 days ahead of the trend

Date: 25 Feb 2014
VWAP = 480.66
x = 1319
a = 0.006044
b = -1.82447
Rsq = 0.874307
Today's expected price = 467.8862
Predicted date for today's price = 1 Mar 2014
Days ahead = 4
Daily price rank = 100
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 25 Jul 2014

(See OP for explanation)

long term trendline is valued at about $680 currently right?

We are about to hit the long-term trend line. First time since last October

thanks again and continue with Graphs,please

The last data point is yesterday, just not shown on the x-axis

With this graph, we may even say we are still in a big bull-phase starting from Mar 2013. The price is still >10x than 1 year before, anyway.

great,thanks

so,now we are still in a bull-Phase,right? Edging the bear-trend
but the data go only to 17/1/2014

y-axis is ln(price)
Series 1 is the daily VWAP
Series 2 is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line.

This graph shows that we have experienced a real bear market once only, from 2011 to early 2013. The mid-2013 bear market was basically following the mean

what about graphs?
Visualizing is easier to understand and to catch

Update:

Date: 23 Feb 2014
VWAP = 619.69
x = 1317
a = 0.006044
b = -1.82413
Rsq = 0.873783
Today's expected price = 461.9526
Predicted date for today's price = 12 Apr 2014
Days ahead = 49
Daily price rank = 90
Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 25 Jul 2014

(See OP for explanation)