BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 38.

Driv3n

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Quote from: jl2012 on January 15, 2015, 09:33:22 AM

Quote from: Biodom on January 14, 2015, 10:04:02 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on January 13, 2015, 11:22:18 PM

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

Good to know, thanks for updating.

jl2012

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Quote from: Biodom on January 14, 2015, 10:04:02 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on January 13, 2015, 11:22:18 PM

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

jl2012

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It's still in a charted area, as I calculate based on the daily VWAP. It was -2.149 yesterday

Date:    14-Jan-2015
VWAP:    189.84
x:    1642
a:    0.00542
b:    -1.50376
Rsq:    0.89272
The day's expected price:    1628.74
Actual price / expected price:   11.66%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.149
Predicted date for today's price:    13-Dec-2013
Days ahead:    -396.58
Daily price rank:    443
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    12-Nov-2014

(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00541980331595342++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.50375586101172+%29

altcoin hitler

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It's over. The trend is fucked royal.

My condolences to all the hype-victims.

Driv3n

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Merit: 250

Quote from: stonerider on January 14, 2015, 11:08:04 PM

We are in an uncharted territory now, yes?

More or less. In the 150-160 range we're further below the trend line than we ever have been. Even at $200 we're close to uncharted territory.

stonerider

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We are in an uncharted territory now, yes?

Biodom

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Quote from: jl2012 on January 13, 2015, 11:22:18 PM

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Wekkel

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yes

Thanks for the update.

jl2012

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Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

jl2012

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Quote from: Driv3n on January 04, 2015, 11:31:42 AM

Currently at -1.85, lowest we've been in over 3 years but not uncharted territory.

It's around -1.8 as the slope is decresing

The all-time-low was -2.23. To go there today it has to reach around $170

jl2012

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Date:    3-Jan-2015
VWAP:    297.71
x:    1631
a:    0.00545
b:    -1.52182
Rsq:    0.89449
The day's expected price:    1590.42
Actual price / expected price:   18.72%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.676
Predicted date for today's price:    1-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -307.30
Daily price rank:    422
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    6-Nov-2014

(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00545283472345717++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.52181815941052+%29

Driv3n

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Currently at -1.85, lowest we've been in over 3 years but not uncharted territory.

jl2012

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Date:    19-Dec-2014
VWAP:    313.31
x:    1616
a:    0.00551
b:    -1.55140
Rsq:    0.89664
The day's expected price:    1553.94
Actual price / expected price:   20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -1.601
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -290.77
Daily price rank:    405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    27-Oct-2014

(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29

Driv3n

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Quote from: Biodom on December 19, 2014, 11:13:58 PM

OP, where are we on the chart? Did we dip below -1.5 yesterday at 307?
I think that we are bouncing pretty hard and many are calling for this bear to be over.

Yep we were at roughly -1.64 yesterday when we hit 307. Hopefully more signs of a trend reversal continue.

Biodom

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OP, where are we on the chart? Did we dip below -1.5 yesterday at 307?
I think that we are bouncing pretty hard and many are calling for this bear to be over.

Biodom

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Quote from: Tzupy on December 16, 2014, 07:28:58 AM

Quote from: exocytosis on December 15, 2014, 04:00:43 PM

Quote from: adpinbr on December 15, 2014, 05:47:23 AM

When do we need to remodel the trendline?

One year ago.

IMO longer than 1 year. Markus started faking the price since February 2013, quoting from the Willy report:
"In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime."

the presence of a bot does NOT mean that the whole trend is invalidated, although people make this assumption often.
case in point-Dow was less than 7K before all QE started. So, what is the correct value for Dow? 6K, 10K, 17K? Unknowable.

Tzupy

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Quote from: exocytosis on December 15, 2014, 04:00:43 PM

Quote from: adpinbr on December 15, 2014, 05:47:23 AM

When do we need to remodel the trendline?

One year ago.

IMO longer than 1 year. Markus started faking the price since February 2013, quoting from the Willy report:
"In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime."

Joe200

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The problem with this is the implicit assumption that the price trend must come back to the trendline. It doesn't. The price has deviates from the trendlines of the early days and has not (and probably will never) come back to them.

For a better, but still very simplistic approach, see https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/non-spreadsheet-long-term-predictions-600802

exocytosis

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Quote from: adpinbr on December 15, 2014, 05:47:23 AM

When do we need to remodel the trendline?

One year ago.

Wary

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Who's there?

Quote from: adpinbr on December 15, 2014, 05:47:23 AM

I am a long term bull, and I tend to agree with the trend line premise. However, I have a problem with this analysis. When does it change? I mean you could extrapolate this to mean Bitcoin will be worth 100MM dollars on a long enough timeline. I think we all agree that Bitcoin will not be 100MM a piece, so the question is, at what point is the trendline no longer relevant? When do we need to remodel the trendline?

The difference between exponent and S-curve becomes noticeable only after it reaches about 1/2 of maximum (until then all differences can be explained away as volatility). At the current line (10x a year) 1/2 is less than 4 month. So if the eventual bitcoin price is 1M, we will notice the signs of saturation only 3-4 months before the trendline will cross 1M mark.

If 3-4 months is too short a notice, we should look for an input outside of price data. We have to figure out what will be replaced by bitcoin and what is the current cap of this would-be-replaced thing. Gold? Internet money? Black market? Gray-market? African money? Thirld-world money? US Dollar? MB? M1? M2? Bonds? CDs? Hedge funds? Pension funds? There were a number of threads with such discussions a year ago. Nowadays, with one-year-long bear market, such topics aren't so popular. Instead people are discussing how low will bitcoin go. Undecided

EDIT: added some articles ("a"s and "the"s)

Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 38. (Read 110414 times)