Topic: Betting strategy question - page 24. (Read 6114 times)

Well, if the person is completely clueless, then just copying someone smart might at least reduce the odds of them losing everything.

For example, a smart person might be betting at a game with lower odds against him, whereas the clueless person would still bet on a machine with horrible odds.

So, I guess they might have something going on there...

I think it out people just derive their own strategies in betting because the way I'm seeing betting of any game he must at least have your own strategies and people do not learn from other people before they win, wining of gambling is just a lock of people you can when you are lucky enough there's nothing will make you not to win a gambling gambling is a Grease so there's no strategies that you can use in gamblwin  that will make you for me when God it is not directed to win gambling

Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion.

Well, that's the point of this topic, to figure out a way to determine the sensible stake for such bet. The only non-emotional approach is probably just to use kelly criterion which suggests the optimal would be 9.5% of your bankroll.
So your 10% call seems spot on 

Easy fix, we could just filter out untrusted sites, or instruct it to only use whitelisted ones.

Depends on what kind of bets are we talking about I guess. But yeah, generally speaking you'd need a large number of bets for your average profit/loss to be in line with expected value. Which doesn't mean you can't be profitable in just a few bets.

Side note: sometimes millions bets may not be enough. Looking i.e. at the BitVest's stats even after 4.7 billions bets, their profit is only at 47.6% of EV (assuming those stats are correct).

83% chance of losing that's a lot of unfavourable chance compared to the 17% chance of probability. Like no sane person would want to put in a good amount of cash for this as the chances of winning is far way too slim despite the what you have to profit in if you're lucky to win, but then,how do you know you would be lucky.
I think on a scale of 1-100 I'll put 10% of my money for such gamble for it's too risky to be tempted place a huge bet on it.

So you think that there can be profitable (non-profitable strategies are not the subject of discussion, since obviously no one is interested) strategies? It seems to me that if the bookmaker/casino has not made a mistake anywhere (in the software, in the set odds, etc.), then no strategy will change the fact that the advantage is not on the side of the player.

Everyone of us should have our own betting strategy that would determine how we bet and make winnings.
There are some strategies that will work for a while giving us some profits and later stop making winnings for us.
We need to work on our strategies so that we can always modify it to help us make consistent profits from casinos.

Even though I have been gambling for a long time, I have not been able to find a single strategy that could bring profit on a regular basis. In gambling as well as in sports betting a lot depends on luck and I am sure only that if you do not favor the luck during the gaming session, no matter how professional you would be and what strategy you would use, you will just lose your money.

Gambling requires strategy but it must be modified as needed. Applying the same strategy is unlikely to produce the expected results. Also, since it depends on luck, the strategy may not work very well. It is good if you can make your own strategy, but other's strategy must be well researched. How reasonable that strategy is should be seen at a loss. I think in some gambling 50 percent win based on luck and 50 percent depends on strategy and your intelligence.

In gambling, it is too difficult to talk about guaranteeing a win, perhaps even impossible, since in any case there is a factor of luck.

Even if it's not dice or roulette, luck still plays a big role. In the bet, all the same, it depends more on the player who chooses a certain event, but in events it also very often happens that something unpredictable can significantly affect the outcome.

For example, look at yesterday's Real Madrid match, how many things happened, the goalkeeper was injured before the game, they scored a goal for themselves and did not score a penalty. It definitely influenced the outcome of the event and it was a big setback for the team and for everyone who bet on Real, so luck still plays a role in gambling for everyone.

Yes, it could be, but in reality, if using an AI for that you would likely to end up on a scam site with very favorable odds, but no intention to pay you out ever.

Another problem with positive EV games is that you need to make many millions of bets to really take advantage of that.


Yeah, bookies and other gamblers too. And this will change the odds in such a way that you will need to risk $100 in order to potentially win $5 with a 94% win chance. Sounds familiar? Yeah, those are the odds for a dice game.

Yeah, I think so to.

At the end of the day the casino always will have better odds, so you either stop gambling forever after a win, or you simply treat it as some entertainment.

As long as you don't put more money that you decided beforehand, it's all good.

Most of the game provides the theoretical RTP but calculating the odds of winning on games that is pure luck based like slots, dice, plinko and etc is still nonsense at all because hitting the winning bet is still based on chances despite you have the advantage with the odds. I do understand that we should balance the odds of winning to the potential profit when gambling but there’s still no way for us to determine when we will win to guarantee profit.

I think playing without doing some calculations and using normal bets is the best strategy to enjoy gambling on those luck based games.

Apart from Betfury, you have another casino option, namely Owl.games, where you also invest in Owl tokens which can give you additional Owl or BUSD tokens. This is interesting because you can try both casinos and see which is more profitable for you.

Betfury and Owl have their advantages and disadvantages, so you should choose one based on your research. But you can also choose both to find out. And only use the money you can afford if you want to invest in the two casino tokens.

I agree about the luck but for the strategy? I think it depends only on certain games. It can be applied on poker, blackjack, on some other card games and also in sports betting. For someone who is serious about winning and making a profit then there is no way they can forget adding a strategy to each of their games but there are some who just wants to test if how lucky they are, and there are newbies who don't know if what strategy is good to use so they just play the game directly.

Other than calculating the strategy, I think it's best to also calculate the odds or our chances of winning, so that we can decide if it's worth the risk or not.

yes indeed in the science of gambling, luck is the main thing and the strategy that brings us closer to that luck.
sometimes a gambler forgets this knowledge and just bets without thinking about the strategy he has to calculate with mathematics. but almost all gamblers always use a strategy to gamble in one of the games to get profit or victory. although in the end it is luck that decides, but if you are good at calculating betting strategies, it will be closer to the luck you will get.

I haven't heard about them, to be honest, but I was away from the crypto space for a few years until recently, so still am a bit out of the loop. I'll try to take a look at them in more detail when I have time.
I do like the concept of investing in the bankroll though. But despite having a mathematical advantage, there's always some trust involved, which usually puts people off.

This brings to my mind the following, there are some casinos that have investment options, you should know the Betfury casino well that a few years ago gave the option to buy the BFG, but at the same time caused quite a lot of returns in other crypto, including Bitcoin, what do you think about it? Of course, now we have seen that they have some problems, hence a negative opinion of them in their profile, but they are insisting that they open signature campaigns, that they give more movies to the tokens, but currently do you see that this will be profitable? In itself it is a strategy of juice, because in some games the BFG can be posted and apart from that, if they multiply, it gives more profitability, what I think they have failed is that they have not looked for a good exchange, in the long run I think this type of casinos which is a good betting strategy.


Well, what I might think and what first occurs to me is that it is as you say, the way that they can use that data, they can get some statistics, which will reveal some type of probabilistic style data so that they can get closer to a prediction, this through the mathematical modeling of some tools, but of course, this is somewhat difficult, this reminds me of the time I saw in the statistics university, when I read in a book that its prologue said that the reason I was in that book was to win the lottery, but even so it is very difficult to get ahead in time, according to telecommunications with signals it is possible to get ahead in time, but only there, in terms of this things can get complicated.

Correct, it cannot (yet) fetch any data from external sources, so it has to rely on the training data "fed" to him by developers. The most recent data is from Sep 2021.


It won't be very useful for games with mathematically determined odds, where the house has an edge. But (when it's able to collect data from external sources) it could be good for things like looking for positive EV opportunities on numerous different gambling sites (i.e. with high enough Jackpot and low number of players, the mathematical edge can sway on your side). But it'd probably most useful for gambling with "judgmental" odds, i.e. sports betting, where it could be looking for arbitrage opportunities (but I think we already have that for quite a while) or it could run an advanced analysis on teams performance, past results, patterns etc and could help you find good value bets (i.e. with pay-out rates higher than they should be). Then it could help you decide on the size of the wager for best long-term effects.

The problem is, if such tools will be available to players, bookies will also be using them in order to not get screwed.