Betting strategy question - page 21.

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Quote from: madnessteat on February 17, 2023, 11:35:18 AM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 10:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 07:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

Haha. I met people who played the lottery all their lives, but never won.

To be honest I do not understand these people because the chances of winning is so small that I do not even want to try their luck. I personally would rather play slots or bet on a soccer match and watch it online. Unlike the lottery, slots or betting on sports are fun for me.

Well, the prospect of a million dollars/pesos/whatever currency they use is enough to blind these people of the implications of getting there. You could literally be slapping their faces with the factual evidence and they will dismiss it because "I don't even spend that much on it, just a few couple dollars", or "any chance that is not zero is good enough". These people are desperate as hell to get their big breaks they'd be more than happy to take the infinitesimal chance at getting a win than actually working their way up there. These people are beyond helping, and honestly speaking I think they should be given help (considering the fact that I always advocate for helping gambling addicts), because most of these people are downright addicted to this lifestyle, and are just too in denial.

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Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 10:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 07:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

Haha. I met people who played the lottery all their lives, but never won.

To be honest I do not understand these people because the chances of winning is so small that I do not even want to try their luck. I personally would rather play slots or bet on a soccer match and watch it online. Unlike the lottery, slots or betting on sports are fun for me.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on February 15, 2023, 12:33:33 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 14, 2023, 05:23:37 PM

Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy only under two small conditions: 1 - there are no bet limits, 2 - you have an unlimited amount of money.

That is false

No, it's not.

It is, unless you call winning to be willing to bet billions to win the initial bet a winning strategy. In other words, you bet $1 initially and as you encounter losing streaks you have to keep doubling and doubling ad infinitum because the longer term the more likely you are to encounter extremely improbable losing streaks.

In your mental experiment you are missing something else: infinite time.

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

You don't say! Really?! Thanks for your wisdom and for letting us know. Keep it up!

Same here, keep us up to date with your genius thought experiments.

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Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 07:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

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Quote from: traderethereum on February 16, 2023, 11:23:46 PM

Quote from: madnessteat on February 16, 2023, 02:09:24 PM

Quote from: traderethereum on February 16, 2023, 07:41:07 AM

Quote from: minime0105 on February 16, 2023, 06:05:57 AM

When we say winning strategy to me I don't see that as a reality because there is nothing like that, bet has know definite outcome because most times we predict without knowing what will happen in the entire game, as a bettor you see yourself strategizing but at the end you won't get your desired results that why I said bet is an unforeseen circumstance,

But at least, by having a strategy, we can feel confident about winning the game, which has been done by many bettors before.
They still make a strategy that they think can work well and give them a win because they think it's still worth doing.
Meanwhile, those who can't make a strategy can predict a match based on what they find and choose a team with a chance of winning.
But whatever the result will be, we must realize that the strategy or prediction cannot always win. If a strategy doesn't work, it might be because there have been changes in the match beyond our expectations.

A strategy can increase the chances of winning, but if today your strategy worked well it does not mean that it will work tomorrow, because in gambling is very important role played by the randomness of one event or another. It is because of this, no strategy can guarantee that you will be able to make a profit. Most of us at least once in our lives have played the Martingale strategy and from personal experience feel that this strategy misleads us.

Therefore, we should make more strategies before playing or use various strategies when playing to increase the chances of winning.
Even though that doesn't guarantee we can win, at least the chance to win will be bigger and we also have to depend on luck.
And it also depends on the type of game we will play so that the strategy can function properly and give us victory.
But even though we have used a strategy, we still have to control the amount of money used for gambling so that we don't experience too many losses.

Strategy is indeed a must and the main factor besides luck is for gamblers to win a game.
But when the strategy we use without understanding in a game, the strategy will only be in vain.
I mean understanding is where we can find out how the game works and some stages for us to win it.
It would be better if we put a limit on the number of bets, such as only betting a low amount but can play a little longer because that way the chances for us to win are even bigger.
I agree with you about always controlling ourselves and the funds we use to minimize the number of losses when playing.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 14, 2023, 05:23:37 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on February 14, 2023, 05:45:45 AM

Martingale strategy can be used when playing Video Poker. I'm doing it from time to time, and it's fun. You should try it. As it is always with purely luck based games, there's no guarantee that you will not lose your entire balance following this strategy, but if you are ready to stop in time, or your entire balance is not that big, try it, starting from the lowest bet possible, of course.

Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy only under two small conditions: 1 - there are no bet limits, 2 - you have an unlimited amount of money.

- Using martingale is also sometimes just luck. Because even if your odds are small, if you are lucky the day you play, for sure you will win.

Now, if you are unlucky, I think that's where the player must have a big fund so that he doesn't lose or else his money will just disappear in this way.

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Quote from: irhact on February 17, 2023, 01:54:00 AM

Quote from: KupaCrypto on February 15, 2023, 10:06:13 AM

Betting is something not 100% sure no matter how small or big the odds are , so Betting on any platform involves winning or loosing, so the question is how do you place your bet in other not to incure plenty risk because the more the risk the less the chance of winning that particular bet,
Like a friend once told me on sport Betting don't bet your favourite team, dot put money on your favourite team if you know they can't win,
Bet the stronger team that has more chance of winning and don't accumulate plenty games or events on the bet.

But when you bet the stronger team, the chances of you winning big reduces and when you check the risk ratio between losing your money or winning the bet I don't think it's not worth it as for you to win big with the strongest team you have to put a larger sum of money compared to when you choose the weakest team.

Did you know what is called the house edge in casino, it is also existing in sport gambling and that is what you have just explained. No matter what, the gambling odds are set by the gambling sites and they are set it in a way to favour the themselves ( the gambling) site than the gamblers. Strong team with low odds, weak teams with high odds. As people are betting, they will only be realizing that they lose money than win if they bet frequently, but they may win more matches, not money. This is one of the things that can start addiction because the gambler will think he is good and he should risk more money to have more chance of winning.

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Quote from: KupaCrypto on February 15, 2023, 10:06:13 AM

Betting is something not 100% sure no matter how small or big the odds are , so Betting on any platform involves winning or loosing, so the question is how do you place your bet in other not to incure plenty risk because the more the risk the less the chance of winning that particular bet,
Like a friend once told me on sport Betting don't bet your favourite team, dot put money on your favourite team if you know they can't win,
Bet the stronger team that has more chance of winning and don't accumulate plenty games or events on the bet.

But when you bet the stronger team, the chances of you winning big reduces and when you check the risk ratio between losing your money or winning the bet I don't think it's not worth it as for you to win big with the strongest team you have to put a larger sum of money compared to when you choose the weakest team.

In sport betting, this is the trick the casinos uses on their customers so they get more profit from those choosing the weakest team in hope of them winning big if the game goes their way. I see nothing wrong with accumulating plenty game provided you know what you're doing. I have seen people win it big with accumulating so it isn't an impossible tasks.

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Quote from: madnessteat on February 16, 2023, 02:09:24 PM

Quote from: traderethereum on February 16, 2023, 07:41:07 AM

Quote from: minime0105 on February 16, 2023, 06:05:57 AM

When we say winning strategy to me I don't see that as a reality because there is nothing like that, bet has know definite outcome because most times we predict without knowing what will happen in the entire game, as a bettor you see yourself strategizing but at the end you won't get your desired results that why I said bet is an unforeseen circumstance,

But at least, by having a strategy, we can feel confident about winning the game, which has been done by many bettors before.
They still make a strategy that they think can work well and give them a win because they think it's still worth doing.
Meanwhile, those who can't make a strategy can predict a match based on what they find and choose a team with a chance of winning.
But whatever the result will be, we must realize that the strategy or prediction cannot always win. If a strategy doesn't work, it might be because there have been changes in the match beyond our expectations.

A strategy can increase the chances of winning, but if today your strategy worked well it does not mean that it will work tomorrow, because in gambling is very important role played by the randomness of one event or another. It is because of this, no strategy can guarantee that you will be able to make a profit. Most of us at least once in our lives have played the Martingale strategy and from personal experience feel that this strategy misleads us.

Therefore, we should make more strategies before playing or use various strategies when playing to increase the chances of winning.
Even though that doesn't guarantee we can win, at least the chance to win will be bigger and we also have to depend on luck.
And it also depends on the type of game we will play so that the strategy can function properly and give us victory.
But even though we have used a strategy, we still have to control the amount of money used for gambling so that we don't experience too many losses.

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Of course it is a bet that I would take, but the key here is how many times can I bet. If it is a one-off, then not a lot of money, because despite the statistics being in my favour, luck is luck in the end. However if I can place the bet many times, I would do so increasing the amount little by little as eventually profits would be mounting up for statistical effects.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on February 15, 2023, 12:33:33 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 14, 2023, 05:23:37 PM

Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy only under two small conditions: 1 - there are no bet limits, 2 - you have an unlimited amount of money.

That is false

No, it's not.

With those conditions, I think Martingale is the best strategy, I would rather use a modified martingale where the bet would increase by 3x or 4x or even greater every time a lost happen.

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on February 15, 2023, 12:33:33 AM

... the conditions are unrealistic, ...

You don't say! Really?! Thanks for your wisdom and for letting us know. Keep it up!

lol

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

Quote from: FatFork on February 15, 2023, 06:16:50 AM

Martingale is a terrible gambling strategy in the long run, and I'm sure we all agree on that.

We can agree that there's no winning strategy for any games with a mathematical edge not being on your side (negative EV).
But if you still want to gamble on such, then martingale is just as good, or just as bad as any other betting style. You're just betting on not having a losing streak exceeding your bankroll.

I think martingale is just one strategy that is effective when some condition is met and very devastating if not used properly. I agree Martingale is just another method where we can either win or loss badly depending on how we approach and use this kind of strategy. As stated on the earlier reply, as long as we know when to stop and reset the martingale strategy isn't that bad at all.

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Quote from: tjtonmoy on February 16, 2023, 02:48:20 PM

Nah, I'll pass on this one. If it's single time, then that totally depends on your luck.

But you would probably take it if for $1 you could win $1,000 right? So what would be your decision making process for when the bet is attractive to take? Or is it just based on current feelings?

Quote from: tjtonmoy on February 16, 2023, 02:48:20 PM

I prefer sport betting more than casino bets, for this scenario dice roll. I think it keeps you on the edge and drag you towards addiction. In sport betting, you can analyze and make strategies. But in gambling, there's not much to do.

Both, sports betting and classic casino games are classed as gambling and both are addictive. The only advantage of sports betting is that mathematical odds are harder (if not impossible) to calculate, so there's always a chance of taking advantage of miscalculated odds.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Life in itself is a risk, and one thing I have noticed about gambling is that the higher the risk the greater the odds or payout, which is why since this offers a pay of x12 of my stake, I will kindly take the bet and place an amount I can afford to lose, which is not quite huge, but reasonable enough (i.e $20), so that if the result doesn't go as planned, I will still be okay, and if unfortunately, I happen to be lucky and win, I get happy, because life itself is a risk, and as such it's never a crime to keep trying.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

Nah, I'll pass on this one. If it's single time, then that totally depends on your luck. From what I know, my luck is trash. So for me, it will be a foolish decision. And also I prefer sport betting more than casino bets, for this scenario dice roll. I think it keeps you on the edge and drag you towards addiction. In sport betting, you can analyze and make strategies. But in gambling, there's not much to do.

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Quote from: traderethereum on February 16, 2023, 07:41:07 AM

Quote from: minime0105 on February 16, 2023, 06:05:57 AM

When we say winning strategy to me I don't see that as a reality because there is nothing like that, bet has know definite outcome because most times we predict without knowing what will happen in the entire game, as a bettor you see yourself strategizing but at the end you won't get your desired results that why I said bet is an unforeseen circumstance,

But at least, by having a strategy, we can feel confident about winning the game, which has been done by many bettors before.
They still make a strategy that they think can work well and give them a win because they think it's still worth doing.
Meanwhile, those who can't make a strategy can predict a match based on what they find and choose a team with a chance of winning.
But whatever the result will be, we must realize that the strategy or prediction cannot always win. If a strategy doesn't work, it might be because there have been changes in the match beyond our expectations.

A strategy can increase the chances of winning, but if today your strategy worked well it does not mean that it will work tomorrow, because in gambling is very important role played by the randomness of one event or another. It is because of this, no strategy can guarantee that you will be able to make a profit. Most of us at least once in our lives have played the Martingale strategy and from personal experience feel that this strategy misleads us.

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on February 15, 2023, 05:55:12 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 04:59:33 PM

We can agree that there's no winning strategy for any games with a mathematical edge not being on your side (negative EV).
But if you still want to gamble on such, then martingale is just as good, or just as bad as any other betting style. You're just betting on not having a losing streak exceeding your bankroll.

^Definitely right that is the fact that there is no strategy in any games and I agree that martingale is one of the best options that you will quickly get your profit and your capital by folding the amount of your loss to place a bet. It is terrible if you don't have enough funds to sustain and cover losses because this strategy needs a very huge funds. It is impossible if you don't win after how many loss streaks you have and then quit when you have your profit or even win at once, that you surely recovered your losses and already have gained.

Some games doesn't need a strategy but some has it although it will still depend on the player. If they don't want any gimmicks and they want to play the game straight to the point then just go on. Like the majority said, martingale is not a good strategy. If there is one quick thing that you can get at it, then that is only losses and not a profit because you are going to double your bets each time you lose your bet.

Even if you have a huge funds, you will still lose in the long run. The only way for the martingale to work is when you have an unlimited amount of funds but what is the point of playing a gambling if you already have that? Even if you do, casino will still set a limit to counter it.

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Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 07:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Gamblign can be a rollercoaster ride - the high stakes, the thrill of the game, and the promsie of a big payoff can be hard to resist. But let's be reel, there's no such thing as a free launch, and high-risks strategies can be a double-edged sword. I've leanred the hard way that if you don't keep your cool, you could lose everything faster than you can say "Martingale". Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that taking risks isn't worth it. I'm just saying that you have to do it right. That means diversifying my bets and being smart about where I put my money. Beacuse, let's face it, no one wants to end up broke and living on the streest. Plus, relyng on just one strategy is like puting all your eggs in one basket - it's just not a sustainable way to gamble. So take it from me, the key to succssful gambling is all about playing the long game, beign disciplined, and assessing the risks before placing your bets. With a level head and a smart strategy, you can enjoy the thrill of the game without puting everything on the line.

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Quote from: minime0105 on February 16, 2023, 06:05:57 AM

When we say winning strategy to me I don't see that as a reality because there is nothing like that, bet has know definite outcome because most times we predict without knowing what will happen in the entire game, as a bettor you see yourself strategizing but at the end you won't get your desired results that why I said bet is an unforeseen circumstance,

But at least, by having a strategy, we can feel confident about winning the game, which has been done by many bettors before.
They still make a strategy that they think can work well and give them a win because they think it's still worth doing.
Meanwhile, those who can't make a strategy can predict a match based on what they find and choose a team with a chance of winning.
But whatever the result will be, we must realize that the strategy or prediction cannot always win. If a strategy doesn't work, it might be because there have been changes in the match beyond our expectations.

Topic: Betting strategy question - page 21. (Read 6114 times)