Betting strategy question - page 20.

Fredomago

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on February 19, 2023, 03:42:40 AM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 18, 2023, 04:01:43 PM

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

Well, it's because they want to win some money from gambling that makes them continue to gamble in many gambling games. And that will always happen because gambling can tempt them to continue playing and win money.

That's what makes many gamblers addicted because the temptation of the gambling game seems to be calling them to keep playing. But if people can limit themselves not to play gambling for too long or often, they will not be tempted and can leave gambling.

Setting limitations might help to avoid losing a lot, though temptations is really tough to beat when you already find yourself engaged with gambling, the lust to keep on trying to recreate strategy that might work and let you make some decent winnings. But, the chance is the same as casino always has the advantages, especially those who play around in the long process.

Betting strategy and all those ideas are mostly common with gamblers who really wanted to win and extend their stay.

Either casino or sports gambling, there are a strategy that gamblers believe that may work for them and will bring the win that they desired to earn.

nullama

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Quote from: xSkylarx on February 19, 2023, 05:25:20 AM

~snip~
There is still luck in sports betting, not 100% analysis, as there are games that you thought the stronger team would win but it turns out not, as it is not always the strongest team that will win. Though analysis and also having experience are a must in sports betting to decide which team will win, but there is still luck involved, which I think consists in all gambling games. It is just that sports betting has an edge to win if you know the team better than if you play slots or other luck-based games.

Yeah, but the luck really ends up being considered in the odds.

So, if you're able to estimate the odds better than the casino will make you better off.

That's assuming you keep playing for a long period of time though.

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on February 19, 2023, 03:58:27 AM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 18, 2023, 04:01:43 PM

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

They just want to try their luck and to have an experience to play in the other games, after they found a gambling game where they're interested and mastered, they will stick with that's game. Most people will choose sports betting because you're have full control over your bet, so it's 100% depends on your analysis and decision. Gambling to make money and break the past record are really wrong, you need to have control and manage your emotion.

There is still luck in sports betting, not 100% analysis, as there are games that you thought the stronger team would win but it turns out not, as it is not always the strongest team that will win. Though analysis and also having experience are a must in sports betting to decide which team will win, but there is still luck involved, which I think consists in all gambling games. It is just that sports betting has an edge to win if you know the team better than if you play slots or other luck-based games.

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Quote from: 348Judah on February 18, 2023, 04:01:43 PM

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

They just want to try their luck and to have an experience to play in the other games, after they found a gambling game where they're interested and mastered, they will stick with that's game. Most people will choose sports betting because you're have full control over your bet, so it's 100% depends on your analysis and decision. Gambling to make money and break the past record are really wrong, you need to have control and manage your emotion.

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Quote from: 348Judah on February 18, 2023, 04:01:43 PM

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

Well, it's because they want to win some money from gambling that makes them continue to gamble in many gambling games. And that will always happen because gambling can tempt them to continue playing and win money.

That's what makes many gamblers addicted because the temptation of the gambling game seems to be calling them to keep playing. But if people can limit themselves not to play gambling for too long or often, they will not be tempted and can leave gambling.

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Quote from: madnessteat on February 17, 2023, 12:35:18 PM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 08:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

Haha. I met people who played the lottery all their lives, but never won.

To be honest I do not understand these people because the chances of winning is so small that I do not even want to try their luck. I personally would rather play slots or bet on a soccer match and watch it online. Unlike the lottery, slots or betting on sports are fun for me.

It's very funny as well seing some people on this category of being persistent on gambling be it on sport betting, crypto casinos or even lotto, when a gambler is very desperate to make a win after several attempts to break record but never did, they insisted on perpetual trials on each categories and keep doing this over time, well it turns addiction to some while others couldn't but hold on to several attempts without having any results.

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Quote from: Casdinyard on February 17, 2023, 05:04:47 PM

Quote from: madnessteat on February 17, 2023, 12:35:18 PM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 08:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

Haha. I met people who played the lottery all their lives, but never won.

To be honest I do not understand these people because the chances of winning is so small that I do not even want to try their luck. I personally would rather play slots or bet on a soccer match and watch it online. Unlike the lottery, slots or betting on sports are fun for me.

Well, the prospect of a million dollars/pesos/whatever currency they use is enough to blind these people of the implications of getting there. You could literally be slapping their faces with the factual evidence and they will dismiss it because "I don't even spend that much on it, just a few couple dollars", or "any chance that is not zero is good enough". These people are desperate as hell to get their big breaks they'd be more than happy to take the infinitesimal chance at getting a win than actually working their way up there. These people are beyond helping, and honestly speaking I think they should be given help (considering the fact that I always advocate for helping gambling addicts), because most of these people are downright addicted to this lifestyle, and are just too in denial.

It seems to me that such people constantly need the expectation of something good for a comfortable inner state. It's like living with the hope that tomorrow you will wake up and your life will radically change for the better.

I don't know if this is a gambling addiction or if these people just achieve pleasure this way. Unfortunately, I never understood it.

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Quote from: Casdinyard on February 17, 2023, 05:04:47 PM

Quote from: madnessteat on February 17, 2023, 12:35:18 PM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 08:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

Haha. I met people who played the lottery all their lives, but never won.

To be honest I do not understand these people because the chances of winning is so small that I do not even want to try their luck. I personally would rather play slots or bet on a soccer match and watch it online. Unlike the lottery, slots or betting on sports are fun for me.

Well, the prospect of a million dollars/pesos/whatever currency they use is enough to blind these people of the implications of getting there. You could literally be slapping their faces with the factual evidence and they will dismiss it because "I don't even spend that much on it, just a few couple dollars", or "any chance that is not zero is good enough". These people are desperate as hell to get their big breaks they'd be more than happy to take the infinitesimal chance at getting a win than actually working their way up there. These people are beyond helping, and honestly speaking I think they should be given help (considering the fact that I always advocate for helping gambling addicts), because most of these people are downright addicted to this lifestyle, and are just too in denial.

I feeel ya when it comes to the alure of the millon-dollar dream, it's temptin AF. But at the same time, we gotta be real and resposible with our money, ya feel me? We gotta acknowledge the potential consequences of our actions and not just think about the money we spend on gamblin. Its about the time, energy, and emotions we invest in it too, man. It's easy to get caught up in the thrill of the game and forget that we could lose everything. So, it's important to set limits and have a plan before we even start playin. We gotta be aware when gambling becomes more than just a form of entertainment, like when it turns into an addiction. In those cases, we gotta seek help and support ASAp. As much as we wanna hit the jackpot and become a millionare overnight, lets be real, it's not a sustainable or responsible way to live, dude. We gotta approach gamblin with wisdom and balance so that we can enjoy the games without gettin consumed by them.

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Quote from: qwertyup23 on February 18, 2023, 11:33:43 AM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 08:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

According to Google, the chances of a person winning the lottery is 1 out of 292.2 million. I mean, the payment on the ticket may be relatively cheap but the odds of you winning is abysmal. Though this may be the case, winning the lottery can absolutely turn your life around with regard to your finances, as long as you manage them completely.

The funny thing is, most of the previous lottery winners have turned their life for the worse. They did win the lottery but they quickly mismanaged their winnings/profit, got addicted to multiple vices, and incurred tons of debt. That is why, proper management of finances is absolutely needed in order to take advantage of such money.

The op analysis is just like Lotto logic. When I also saw the numeric presentation my mind think of the way Lotto is played. Now it is not all the strategies that work for one person or gambler also work for another. Yes the chances of winning is low while the chances of losing is very high a dice game and not really on Lotto.

If google gives you that estimated number then dice game is even more than that figure because dice can never be played with prediction but Lotto can be.

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Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 08:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

According to Google, the chances of a person winning the lottery is 1 out of 292.2 million. I mean, the payment on the ticket may be relatively cheap but the odds of you winning is abysmal. Though this may be the case, winning the lottery can absolutely turn your life around with regard to your finances, as long as you manage them completely.

The funny thing is, most of the previous lottery winners have turned their life for the worse. They did win the lottery but they quickly mismanaged their winnings/profit, got addicted to multiple vices, and incurred tons of debt. That is why, proper management of finances is absolutely needed in order to take advantage of such money.

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Quote from: madnessteat on February 17, 2023, 12:35:18 PM

Quote from: 348Judah on February 17, 2023, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: Peanutswar on February 16, 2023, 08:00:50 AM

The same way of strategy as the lotto is that there's a higher chance of winning so if you have the time to risk with this kind of game because of the higher chance of a return for sure you'll grab the opportunity but of course not all the time it works with the different person still ideal if you manage the risk on yourself. For me Martingale is not ideal too and as a gambler it just double and increase the number and amount of losses.

Talking about the example you made with the lottery games, it's less risky but the chance of winning is very low, I've seen many people having multiple attempts upon years without being lucky to win, sometimes we need to think extensively and come up with a new approach and such idea may influence having a new or entirely different result from what we have been having in the past, we just need a change in strategies.

Haha. I met people who played the lottery all their lives, but never won.

To be honest I do not understand these people because the chances of winning is so small that I do not even want to try their luck. I personally would rather play slots or bet on a soccer match and watch it online. Unlike the lottery, slots or betting on sports are fun for me.

At that point, we can't do anything about those kinds of gambling dudes, those are the gamblers who don't care if they lose a lot, but what they want is to gamble and satisfy themselves.

But like you, I also often play slot games and then baccarat is the only thing I often look for because in the slot games, I always have a chance to win but it's not that big, that's right.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 18, 2023, 08:01:50 AM

All that talk about risk aversion and not taking risks in life reminded me of the video I watched years ago. I managed to dig it up. It nicely shows how human psychology and basic instincts can make us turn down even great opportunities. Here's the link (put it in the OP as well):

Very interesting veritasium vid. It sheds light on how our brains are built with pessimism. I've heard about a study as well stating that the brain is most likely to retain memories and learn from them if they were of negative nature. Losses, rejections, regrets, those could be good reasons why a lot of people wouldn't take bets like that consciously. But slap a game in it, make it flashy enough and a throw in a lot of gambling mumbo jumbo in the mixture and you'll find that people will flock upon it like pigeons on bread.

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All that talk about risk aversion and not taking risks in life reminded me of the video I watched years ago. I managed to dig it up. It nicely shows how human psychology and basic instincts can make us turn down even great opportunities. Here's the link (put it in the OP as well):

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Quote from: nullama on February 18, 2023, 03:16:33 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 18, 2023, 02:16:49 AM

~snip~
If you don't do anything, then there's nothing that going to change your life, I'm sure that's the point and people who have that nerve risking things to change up or try to make something differently will have that equal chance in making its way to success, it's not all but most of those who take the risk and gamble with fate are those who experienced good results.

They are likely to make changes, the power of self-will give them that opportunities to find the comfort that they are aiming.

I would say that you need to keep improving to keep pace. If you stop improving then your life will change, for the worse, slowly.

That's why you need to take risks, see what works, and push forward. If you just look at life, then you'll just fade away into oblivion.

Some things won't work, others will. Keep pushing, and you will endure.

In gambling in particular though, it's all rigged against you, so you should probably only consider it as entertainment money.

I go with you in terms of gambling much better to treat it as a source of entertainment and not to focus with how will you take advantage with the house because most of the time it will lead you making mistake in pursuing your goals, if you are into enjoying and you win then it will be a good bonus with your gambling.

While if you lose, you can easily go away and move forward, thinking that the amount you use serves its sole purpose of paying for your entertainment.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 06:44:44 PM

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup

Correct, if the payout for correctly guessing the dice roll is x12 of your stake, while the odds of winning are 1 in 6, then the expected value can be calculated as follows:

EV = (1/6) * 12 - (5/6) * 1 = 1 - 5/6 = 1/6

The positive expected value suggests that over the long term, you would be expected to make a profit by taking this bet. However, in the short term, there is a high likelihood that you will lose your bet.

Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 06:44:44 PM

1 - will you take that bet?

It depends, but in general yes. It pays to place EV+ bets, despite short-term volatility.

Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 06:44:44 PM

2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

I like to be conservative. About 2% I think.

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Quote from: Fredomago on February 18, 2023, 02:16:49 AM

~snip~
If you don't do anything, then there's nothing that going to change your life, I'm sure that's the point and people who have that nerve risking things to change up or try to make something differently will have that equal chance in making its way to success, it's not all but most of those who take the risk and gamble with fate are those who experienced good results.

They are likely to make changes, the power of self-will give them that opportunities to find the comfort that they are aiming.

I would say that you need to keep improving to keep pace. If you stop improving then your life will change, for the worse, slowly.

That's why you need to take risks, see what works, and push forward. If you just look at life, then you'll just fade away into oblivion.

Some things won't work, others will. Keep pushing, and you will endure.

In gambling in particular though, it's all rigged against you, so you should probably only consider it as entertainment money.

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Quote from: klidex on February 17, 2023, 05:24:40 AM

Quote from: traderethereum on February 17, 2023, 12:23:46 AM

Quote from: madnessteat on February 16, 2023, 03:09:24 PM

Quote from: traderethereum on February 16, 2023, 08:41:07 AM

Quote from: minime0105 on February 16, 2023, 07:05:57 AM

When we say winning strategy to me I don't see that as a reality because there is nothing like that, bet has know definite outcome because most times we predict without knowing what will happen in the entire game, as a bettor you see yourself strategizing but at the end you won't get your desired results that why I said bet is an unforeseen circumstance,

But at least, by having a strategy, we can feel confident about winning the game, which has been done by many bettors before.
They still make a strategy that they think can work well and give them a win because they think it's still worth doing.
Meanwhile, those who can't make a strategy can predict a match based on what they find and choose a team with a chance of winning.
But whatever the result will be, we must realize that the strategy or prediction cannot always win. If a strategy doesn't work, it might be because there have been changes in the match beyond our expectations.

A strategy can increase the chances of winning, but if today your strategy worked well it does not mean that it will work tomorrow, because in gambling is very important role played by the randomness of one event or another. It is because of this, no strategy can guarantee that you will be able to make a profit. Most of us at least once in our lives have played the Martingale strategy and from personal experience feel that this strategy misleads us.

Therefore, we should make more strategies before playing or use various strategies when playing to increase the chances of winning.
Even though that doesn't guarantee we can win, at least the chance to win will be bigger and we also have to depend on luck.
And it also depends on the type of game we will play so that the strategy can function properly and give us victory.
But even though we have used a strategy, we still have to control the amount of money used for gambling so that we don't experience too many losses.

Strategy is indeed a must and the main factor besides luck is for gamblers to win a game.
But when the strategy we use without understanding in a game, the strategy will only be in vain.
I mean understanding is where we can find out how the game works and some stages for us to win it.
It would be better if we put a limit on the number of bets, such as only betting a low amount but can play a little longer because that way the chances for us to win are even bigger.
I agree with you about always controlling ourselves and the funds we use to minimize the number of losses when playing.

I prefer to limit the number of bets because I am not too familiar with strategizing and I often play gambling in games that do not require strategy.
So far, I have succeeded in doing this because the amount I have lost is not too big and I can still accept it to this day.
By controlling ourselves and the funds used, we can limit the number of losses and will not chase previous losses.
But some people can win by making a strategy, and that's what makes them stick with the strategy.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 17, 2023, 06:32:46 PM

Quote from: tjtonmoy on February 17, 2023, 06:15:28 PM

Maybe it's just a 'me problem'. I don't know why, but my mind works like this. Even if the prize is high and the price is to pay is low, I won't risk it. It's totally my opinion, so people can have different opinion on this. But for me, it is what it is. Can't help it. I guess it is a default thing for me Grin

I do understand where you're coming from. It's a safe approach in a way.
But, as they say, by not taking any risks in life, you're unlikely to ever go bankrupt but you're also unlikely to ever get rich. So it's probably good to have some sort of decision-making approach that is based more on a cold calculation than feelings.
This topic discusses a dye roll, but it's just a simple example that can be transferred into other areas of life (i.e. whether or not to take a particular business opportunity etc.).

If you don't do anything, then there's nothing that going to change your life, I'm sure that's the point and people who have that nerve risking things to change up or try to make something differently will have that equal chance in making its way to success, it's not all but most of those who take the risk and gamble with fate are those who experienced good results.

They are likely to make changes, the power of self-will give them that opportunities to find the comfort that they are aiming.

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Quote from: tjtonmoy on February 17, 2023, 06:15:28 PM

Maybe it's just a 'me problem'. I don't know why, but my mind works like this. Even if the prize is high and the price is to pay is low, I won't risk it. It's totally my opinion, so people can have different opinion on this. But for me, it is what it is. Can't help it. I guess it is a default thing for me Grin

I do understand where you're coming from. It's a safe approach in a way.
But, as they say, by not taking any risks in life, you're unlikely to ever go bankrupt but you're also unlikely to ever get rich. So it's probably good to have some sort of decision-making approach that is based more on a cold calculation than feelings.
This topic discusses a dye roll, but it's just a simple example that can be transferred into other areas of life (i.e. whether or not to take a particular business opportunity etc.).

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 17, 2023, 06:03:50 PM

You're going to assume scam even in the purely hypothetical scenario?? Grin

So if the winnings are EV+ but are too small - you're not going to take it because it's not worth it, but if there are too high - it must be a scam. Fine, not judging. Is there any optimal stake/chance/winnings ratio of a one-time opportunity, or do would you reject anything by default?

Maybe it's just a 'me problem'. I don't know why, but my mind works like this. Even if the prize is high and the price is to pay is low, I won't risk it. It's totally my opinion, so people can have different opinion on this. But for me, it is what it is. Can't help it. I guess it is a default thing for me Grin

Topic: Betting strategy question - page 20. (Read 6081 times)