Topic: Betting strategy question - page 28. (Read 6114 times)

If the probability of something is more than zero, but extremely small, then you might as well consider it zero.

For example, the probability of you walking through a wall is very small but it is not zero given how quantum mechanics work. Would you try to walk through every wall you encounter? probably not.

But I get your point, it's having the hope of something big happening to you in exchange of a small price.

That's also why some people continue solo mining, trying to grab a block even though it is really unlikely.

Lottery is not something you buy tickets so you could win, it is something you buy tickets so you are not missing out. Why? Well if you have just one ticket per draw, that means you at least have a chance and it is a much much bigger chance than zero, the difference between 1 ticket and 100 tickets is smaller than having zero or one.

I know that it is not going to end up being the great thing that we all hope for and we may win, I know we will lose 99.99999% of the time, but at least you got a ticket. That is why many buy tickets, even if just one, because it would give you a chance that you could end up with winning something much better in the long run, a possibility.

Nah, you got it a bit wrong, that 1 btc mentioned is just an example for the purpose of calculating the EV for such bet.

In this exercise, the stake s flexible and that's actually the main question of this thread - how to determine the right amount of the wager, expressed as a percent of your available bankroll (if you decided to take it in the first place).

The x 12 that will be paid on the amount you bet is quite tempting to try. That's why it seems scary to try, especially if you bet a large amount of 1 bitcoin.

I just don't know if anyone has tried such a game, has anyone? This kind of game is only for brave gamblers who are ready to lose big money.

The question was not whether you'd take that bet or not, I know you would. Just as I know you wouldn't take a bet of $1 on a coin toss if the potential winning was $0.10.
The question is WHY you would/wouldn't take such bets if it's not for their positive/negative EV? If you refuse to use the term and calculation of EV for one-time bets, then how do you assess whether a one-time bet is worth taking or not and what do you call it?

Well, I have always thought that in casinos, whenever they deal with casino bonuses and promotions, they are based on success, what they will face in the short term, for us players it is something very nice when we see that there are good bonuses, and promotions, we get excited, especially because at some point we think we can get something for free, and newbies think so too, and newbies themselves are always the most excited, each casino can use this strategy as the best for them , but I am one of those who think that it is much better, to attract people with some cunning, that is to say, offer more things like rewards for playing more and loyalty prizes.

Obviously, the marketing strategies and many promotions are those that casinos offer to everyone, and here it must be determined that the most rewarded are the casinos and some other player who has his lucky touch and makes a great profit, in the In the case of stake.com, bitcasino.io, they are casinos that are old and make their players apply the strategies of having a VIP degree, and that is something that makes them family.

I would take it, but with a bet size of $2 max. Why not more? Because the probability of losing your bet would be still high, 83% chance of losing, and to have a good chance of taking advantage from those unique conditions, "you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6)", I think we need to make at least 100 rolls.

With that said, even if I was given 100 rolls, I wouldn't risk more money than I could afford to lose, because every dice player knows that finding yourself in a situation when you win only 3-4 times within 100 rolls playing with 17% win chance is easy, right?

In general, people are very gambling creatures by nature and if they see a good offer, they take a risk. I think that if you take into account the condition that the proposed bet can only be made once, many would agree to try their luck. After all, it's not just about the odds and the risks, but also the opportunities. If the opportunity is given only once a gambler obviously will not miss it. I do not know whether it is greed or some other feeling, but it obviously attracts us.

10% of your income to 10% of your bankroll is quite a difference, and for me 10% of income is big enough to bet on one session bet and I probably wouldn't do that.
Regarding the Op's question whether to bet like that, I answered that I don't know because for me it was just theory and it would be very different when we did it.

I've tried, actually the chances of winning are even at 80% but I still lost, how much more than 17%.
Maybe that's possible if you have a lot of money to lose gambling.

But if you're just going to gamble to grow it and maybe you'll get lucky, I think it's a bit vague and too risky.

to be honest, i will take the bet because i can get many times what i bet,, and for that bet i will put 10% of my income, it is quite small but i don't want to be too greedy because even though the prize is very big i won't want to take a risk by putting quite a lot of my income on that bet because even if i lose the amount is only 10% of my income and it's not too much and i can let it go

For the sake of interest, I bought lotteries several times, but this is boring, I have never won, and only lost money, it was no avail. There are those who are constantly playing with the hope of winning Jack Pot, but it looks like an illusion, because there are very few winners and, to be honest, I even doubt that the choice of the winner will without the intervention of the organizers of this lottery. Therefore, I do not see the point of participating in lotteries.

Lottery is probably the most famous type of gambling that you will find in any country around the world with millions of people playing each week. My grandfather played lottery regularly for more than 40 years and never had any big win, he only lost money with it. That is probably why I am so against lotteries in the first place and try to avoid them as much as possible. Only when there is a big jackpot I am playing, and then is not really because of having a real chance of winning, it's rather the fear of being left out. All my friends play together lottery for the big jackpots and my fear is that if I ever wouldn't join them that they win the jackpot and all become millionaires and I get nothing. There is always the stories from some small towns playing together and a few people not joining them and they have to live in a street where they are the only non millionaire. Playing games that have much higher chance of winning with only a small payout are more appealing to me. It's more satisfying to play games where we can win on a regular basis than chasing a jackpot that we might never win. And if I ever come across a game that has a positive expected value for the gambler I will play as many rounds as possible. If only one round is allowed I would bet as much money as I can afford to lose without feeling bad about it.

I will definitely take this bet. A 17% chance of winning is already big enough for x12 profit. I bet on the lottery on a daily basis, and it is a way smaller chance of winning it. It is just a one-time deal, so I am willing to put in all available gambling funds that I have. Funds can be earned again, but this opportunity comes only once.


I think gamblers bet on something because they are feeling lucky rather than having better odds. Of course, for a regular bettor, it will always be luck + good odds.

That is if we only calculate the probability in our heads but we can always use a calculator to know the exact chance we have. This is necessary so that we will know if it's worth it to continue betting on that game or we should stop fantasizing that huge win because we can only burn more money in the process. We can even lose more than the reward that we are chasing.

There is more than the odds that casino use to attract their customers. That can be the bonuses and other great services that they offer. There is no way that a casino can say that the odds for their game is is lower when in fact it is actually higher. Players will soon find it out and they will be reported.

What does this mean, maybe in the next match going with the higher odds will loss. Because, it is not about the odds it is about the luck. Risk is part of gambling, and without risking it is impossible to experience the outcome of gambling. One thing important is the emotional control, whether we're on the winning/losing streak we should have the emotional control. Only then we were able to have good gambling experience amidst the loss/win.

Odds are not in favour of the player for any games, even for lottery games. But having a negative EV doesn't mean nobody can make profits, in the same way as positive EV doesn't mean that anyone could get losses. It just mean that thousands of bets at this game, will bring money to the casino. But those bets are usually made by several different players, and some of them could get an insane winning streak while other could get a long losing one, some can win a big bet from a big stake, while other could lose all their bank roll within an all-in bet.
There are lucky players at all games of chance, along with unlucky ones, they are just fewer when EV is negative.

I used to bet with lower odds before but I didn't think it was all worth it. When I tried betting with higher odds I had a better hope of winning. Well, we all have different preferences based on the risk that we could take and the target profit that we want to gain. Some gamblers prefer to win big rewards despite the higher risk but what important is we could handle things as well as our emotions wisely.

Nope, you're teaching EV under the wrong premise.  The question you should be asking everybody is should they be taking the spot everytime it arises despite knowing that they're going to lose 83% of the time.  It's not supposed to be a one off as EV can only be realized over a large sample.

In your extreme example of EV above, sure you should take it, that's a once in a life time spot.  Lol.  But let's be real here...

The same here. As much as I understand the appeal of lotteries and why people play them, but for me it's all about the odds (maybe with the exception of some charitable lotteries/raffles with funds going to a good cause).

I've started a separate topic with a poll relating to national lotteries, if anyone's interested and want to vote and contribute to the discussion, you can find it >here<