Betting strategy question - page 31.

pawel7777

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Quote from: Viscore on December 25, 2022, 04:44:27 PM

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No one would really say no to this kind of bet. As long as the casino has provided positive feedbacks from previous players playing this kind of game, then I would also do the same and take the risk in betting. And the more bets I have to make, the more chances of winning. But no matter how it’s very tempting, I will also make sure that I will only bet the amount which I can afford to lose.

Obviously don't expect to see any such offer in any casino, but real-life examples close to that scenario would be i.e. incorrectly determined odds in sports betting. I think we can find it most often in MMA betting when some underdogs are given way too little chance of winning (therefore better payout rates). So the question is, what's the best method to determine the stake if you spot such opportunity.

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Quote from: crwth on December 25, 2022, 11:00:14 AM

It’s definitely going to be a good decision to go with the bet since the results that you could get is better than the risk you are going to take so I think it boils down into the risk management on how much you are going to bet, but as long as you are ready to lose that kind of money, then it’s best to take it.

Agree, not taking advantage of positive EV is irrational. So it boils down to how to determine a reasonable stake for such bet.
Probably a good rule of thumb would be, for a bet with 17% chance of winning, to not risk more than 17% of available funds. But that's an oversimplified approach.

Quote from: Saint-loup on December 25, 2022, 04:21:53 PM

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For me your calculations are wrong, because it's not the EV of a x12 payout, but the EV of a x13 one. When you play at a normal dice, hi-lo or coin toss game you say you're paid out x2 if you win, you don't say you are paid "x1", and EV is the sum of your excepted winnings minus the sum of your expected losses, then for me the EV of a x12 payout game is :

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x +BTC11) = +BTC1.04 because if you win you get +11BTC not +12.

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Good spot. I've corrected the calculation in the OP. Thanks for pointing this out.

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Quote from: BitcoinPanther on December 24, 2022, 06:11:35 PM

The computation is very attractive having a 17% chance to win 1200% is huge enough considering most dice offer 580% return for 17% chance. Definitely I will take the bet. I would allocate 10% or 1/10 of my bankroll to stake for every roll, this way I will have 10 tries to get a win and hope for that 10 tries can hit 1 for a profit. Grin

No one would really say no to this kind of bet. As long as the casino has provided positive feedbacks from previous players playing this kind of game, then I would also do the same and take the risk in betting. And the more bets I have to make, the more chances of winning. But no matter how it’s very tempting, I will also make sure that I will only bet the amount which I can afford to lose.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

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Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC12) = +BTC1.21

I would definitely take that bet, and I doubt anyone with a bare minimum gambling knowledge wouldn't.
Regardiing the best size I would keep it the same size disregarding how much more I will be paid out, because It Is a single bet event.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC12) = +BTC1.21

For me your calculations are wrong, because it's not the EV of a x12 payout, but the EV of a x13 one. When you play at a normal dice, hi-lo or coin toss game you say you're paid out x2 if you win, you don't say you are paid "x1", and EV is the sum of your excepted winnings minus the sum of your expected losses, then for me the EV of a x12 payout game is :

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x +BTC11) = +BTC1.04 because if you win you get +11BTC not +12.

Or if you consider that your stake is lost each you place a bet because you give it to the dealer and it belongs to your winnings when you win.
EV = (100% x -BTC1) + (17% x +BTC12) = +BTC1.04

Usually casinos show payouts with this notation Winnings:Stake. And it's less confusing for calculating the EV IMO, here it would be 11:1 for your game (or 12:1 for your EV).

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well, i am not going to take such a bet for several reasons, and one of them being that, aside the 83% chance of losing the bet, there is still a higher chance that such a bet will not pull through, so its better not to waste my time and money.

For those that are observant, they should also have noticed that when you open your casino site to gamble, the chances you would lose the first bet you placed is always as high as 95% or more .
And i cant take such a bet because if i should, i will only bet on it with the amount i can afford to lose, and that would be very small that even if i end up winning the bet, the profit wont make any sense.

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1. I will if I've got a spare to bet with and that's usually our scenario with our bets. Here comes the YOLO mindset though. Tongue

2. Not that much, as I've said. It's going to be just a spare amount for which I can afford to lose so that it won't be too critical for me when I lose.

Just playing safe.

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1 no I will not take this bet because this will be a winning bet only in 1/6 cases. moreover this not means I can win at least 1 time after 6 bets because each new run is not related to any previous run.
2 well I will try maybe with a low amount, around 1-5% max of my bankroll. personally I don't like these kinds of bets even if there is a good jackpot.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Interesting question for the gamblers among us. I would definitely take that bet if it was offered to me. Having the chance to make 12x profit with a 1/6 chance of winning is no brainer. Like you showed us the expected value is positive for us. No casino could afford such a game for a long period of time, they would go bankrupt. The issue is of course that we can roll only once, so I'm 5 out of 6 cases we are going to lose our money. In that position I would probably bet 25% of my monthly gambling budget. That's the highest I could afford to lose in a single bet without feeling bad about it for weeks.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

-cut-
1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?
-cut-

When bet amount would be in the limits of my daily betting budget, i would take it. My current betting budget is 1% of my monthly income. It's not a lot and i wouldn't get rich by betting it with 12x multiplier, but i've bet far worse odds, so compared to them this would be a must bet.

And obviously it needs to be a single bet like you said, as otherwise martingale would work for this.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Yup, i'd place that bet immediately even if it's only for a one time bet, win or lose it's still worth it for me since I wouldn't get that opportunity in any casinos.

When it comes to the amount I'll be staking probably half of my deposit or maybe more since most of my deposits are usually small and I might as well place a bigger bet as i'm only going to get a single try.

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It’s definitely going to be a good decision to go with the bet since the results that you could get is better than the risk you are going to take so I think it boils down into the risk management on how much you are going to bet, but as long as you are ready to lose that kind of money, then it’s best to take it.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

yeah, I'd take the bet since it is a one-time bet and have a 17% chance of winning with a x12 payout. it would be a waste to pass on this kind of opportunity. as for how much I'd stake, probably half or 1/4 of the funds I can afford to lose, I am not willing to go all in despite it having a 17% chance of winning.

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Such a generous casino. Although the risk is high, the amount to win is also tremendous. If you are fond of risking like betting for the underdog in a match, you would certainly try that chance of winning. I may or might not be depending on how I feel on the day whether I feel lucky or not.

If its not repetitive I might not really join. A casino would need to keep the offer to keep users coming. They could do this one-time offer daily or weekly.

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You are considering how much to win when your bet is right but you are not really looking at the percentage that you are going to lose if the best fails, although you said it regarding betting as you can afford to lose. But for me I don't focus on what winning amount I'm expecting but the percentage in the loses incase I don't win. Betting with 1% of income is still on the sensible angle and that makes you not greedy because greed makes a gambler to take irrational decision.

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Quote from: dothebeats on December 25, 2022, 10:02:07 AM

But say, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, I might just toss in a couple hundred and just be done with thinking 'what ifs' and maybe win the bet.

I don’t see much a once in a lifetime opportunity for a single bet that just give extra 50% payment on a single roll opportunity while the chance of winning is still that low. If the pay rate will be x50 or more then this offer is good but since this is just a one time roll it’s just a regular game with extra payment which is still not worth it to risk huge bets.

It's stil a 1/6 win chance probability and it doesn't change the fact that it's hard to win on that percentage with just increasing the multiplier a little bit.

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If I were a rich man seeking thrill with gambling, I'd take that bet in a heartbeat even when equipped with the knowledge of losing 83% of the time. If this kind of chance would happen only once in a day, and I'm someone that does not really care much about the money and just the outcome, this would be appealing to me. But knowing that I still value my money and I do not believe that it's reasonable for me to take the bet at all. Perhaps with a small amount, but not more than $100.

But say, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, I might just toss in a couple hundred and just be done with thinking 'what ifs' and maybe win the bet.

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I love this statement of women being more risk-averse,I think that this is not that true everywhere,all of my women colleagues will not play gambling at all and there are a lot of them in the company where I work as we are consultants in many fields and professions.

Having said that I would not risk that 17% chance of win against 83% chance of losing as it means I can only win 1 in every 6 rolls so that 1200% is not at all appealing to me when 83% of the rolls I would be a losing person.

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Quote from: jackg on December 24, 2022, 06:00:59 PM

I you knew if was legit and on a site you regularly visit, I doubt anyone would be saying no.
...

You'd be surprised. A lot of people (especially women) are unreasonably risk-averse.
In this case though - you're still most likely to lose money than win, so not taking such bet at all would be fairly reasonable IMO.

Quote from: jackg on December 24, 2022, 06:00:59 PM

If it were me, I'd consider anything up to a third of what you could afford to lose
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Fair enough, but is there any reason you would risk max. third of your funds (not more or less)?
What I'm trying to figure out is to see if there's any reasonable/mathematical approach to making such decision.

Quote from: BitcoinPanther on December 24, 2022, 06:11:35 PM

I would allocate 10% or 1/10 of my bankroll to stake for every roll, this way I will have 10 tries to get a win and hope for that 10 tries can hit 1 for a profit. Grin

As in OP, you can only roll once. Still taking it?

Quote from: nullama on December 25, 2022, 12:08:36 AM

Well, since it's a single event then all the calculations you present do not apply because they assume long term, multiple shots, that's when the probabilities make sense.
...

This is how you calculate EV. Positive EV doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC12) = +BTC1.21

Well, since it's a single event then all the calculations you present do not apply because they assume long term, multiple shots, that's when the probabilities make sense.

In a single throw, then you really only have 1 out of 6 chances to win, which doesn't really sound too good to be honest.

I would just put a bit of money that wouldn't really affect me at all if I lose it, and see if I get something out of it.

Topic: Betting strategy question - page 31. (Read 6114 times)