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Topic: Betting strategy question - page 32. (Read 6114 times)

hero member
Activity: 2702
Merit: 672
I don't request loans~
December 24, 2022, 11:36:23 PM
#4
I doubt anyone would say no, more so if the said offer came from a reputable casino (or even the individual who set up the bet really).

As for how much, if we were talking about funds I solely use for gambling, I can pretty much bet everything in it. Solely my betting funds though, I allocate to it monthly if I ever want to play. It's a one-time chance, after all. I can still use my money to play other stuff later on if I wanted/needed to, just that it'd be on a different month.
hero member
Activity: 1918
Merit: 564
December 24, 2022, 06:11:35 PM
#3
The computation is very attractive having a 17% chance to win 1200% is huge enough considering most dice offer 580% return for 17% chance.  Definitely I will take the bet.  I would allocate 10% or 1/10 of my bankroll to stake for every roll, this way I will have 10 tries to get a win and hope for that 10 tries can hit 1 for a profit.  Grin
copper member
Activity: 2856
Merit: 3071
https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory
December 24, 2022, 06:00:59 PM
#2
I you knew if was legit and on a site you regularly visit, I doubt anyone would be saying no.

If it were me, I'd consider anything up to a third of what you could afford to lose to be a reasonable bet for something like that - especially since you're not going to be able to do it again and have a chance to 2x or 1x your disposable funds. But I normally end up withdrawing from casinos while I still have a similar balance to what I've deposited so you might get a greater variety of answers below of people who may not.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 1561
December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM
#1
Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup


Edit2:
A somewhat related video on a subject on unreasonable risk aversion. Good watch and not very long:


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