Funny how short (and useful) some threads get when you "ignore" just a few users. 
Why ignore? Just read the people you need to read.
Topic: BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680 - page 9. (Read 41051 times)
Why ignore? Just read the people you need to read.
Funny how short (and useful) some threads get when you "ignore" just a few users.
hm
never thought in that context... ie - not concerning the whole threads.
must definitely give a try
Funny how short (and useful) some threads get when you "ignore" just a few users.
A pre-order is an order placed for an item which has not yet been released. Everything since is an order and won't be shipped until the pre-orders are taken care of. The only way YOUR version makes sense is if I word it "wont be shipped until the pre-order BACKLOG is taken care of" No need to "change the rules" you already stated it above, which I highlighted. Placed to order = not pre-ordered. Feel free to contradict yourself.
Simple solution. Don't post in the thread titled "BF Labs Inc. WILL process ALL backlogs by September 30, 2013!" where this whole conversation got started. If you only want to talk about orders before April 5th...Now, by using YOUR DEFINITION, I could place an order on Sept 29th, and when they did not ship it on Sept 30 I could scream and yell and holler that they did not meet their stated aim of shipping their backlog. Sorry, it does not hold water. To estimate clearing ANYTHING you have to have a set figure. If you are constantly adding to this figure, the time will therefore increase as well. You are now claiming BFL can see into the future to know what orders will be placed and KNOW they can satisfy it. Typical troll.
New orders would not change the fact that they cleared their backlog, it would just create a second backlog. If at any time they shipped all outstanding orders, the backlog is cleared. Plus they would ship your order Sept. 30 if they had cleared their backlog. They would actually have inventory of assembled units. They could have same day turnaround just as real companies such as Newegg.com. Whoa, I need wikipedia here.... The twenty-foot equivalent unit (often TEU or teu) is an inexact unit of cargo capacity often used to describe the capacity of container ships and container terminals. There is a lack of standardisation in regards to height, ranging between 4 feet 3 inches (1.30 m) and 9 feet 6 inches (2.90 m), with the most common height being 8 feet 6 inches (2.59 m)... AMAZING! 20' long, 8' wide and 4'3" to 9'6" tall. 680 to 1520 CUBIC FEET. Quite a range there bud. That'd hold 1360 to 3040 of the large .5 cubic foot USPS flat rate packages measureing 12 by 12 by 5 1/2. Yea, I see a HUGE need for those TEUs.
A TEU is just a unit of shipping. Also, if you have 300 boxes, you need to put them on pallets otherwise they would roll around inside the truck and they couldn't efficiently move them around. The point is, they would need a large truck instead of the normal little USPS trucks you see arriving in the pics. Maybe they only took pictures on small shipping days. However, they were bragging about how big the piles were. Also, the guy who posted the pics left the company and there haven't been any pictures posted since. 
When were these pictures taken? For 2 months only Jalapenos left the building, would really need that container for those! And gee, the post office would NEVER think to change the vehicle size they pick up with if the orders started ramping up, that'd be silly! Let's make 10 trips! And of course EVERYTHING is shipped by USPS as well! Why use Fed-Ex and UPS and DHL like the customers want for their expedited shipping? That'd make WAY too much sense.
Not my fault BFL uses USPS. Jalapenos are the smallest boxes. Obviously, 300 singles would take up more space and require even more space in trucks.You are looking a bad data and making assupmtions. That 15.5 Jalapenos a day average could be well over 100-150, we'll never know. The lowet Jan. Jala order is 15742 and the highest is 18379. 83 Jalapenos from 68 orders. All told, 182 orders spread over 2600 order numbers. Using the minimum they shipped 21 a day since Jan was cleared in 4 days.
My point was to use how fast BFL claims they can ship to demonstrate we can estimate the size of their backlog.Keep chanting your mantra, . You refuse to acknowledge anything but your limited point of view, even though you are wrong.
I have acknowledged everything almost you have posted (some of the more vapid stuff I just reply with a PSA).It seems that you are just here to derail threads for your lord and master Inaba. Exhibit A, you didn't even post this response in the thread it belongs in:
BF Labs Inc. WILL process ALL backlogs by September 30, 2013!
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bf-labs-inc-will-process-all-backlogs-by-september-30-2013-268055
Did you get lost? Derailing so many threads you can't keep track anymore?
...and with that lengthy nonsensical rant I can add another obvious bfl sockpuppet account to ignore. These guys have more socks than a JC Penny white sale.
Happy to oblige! 
...and with that lengthy nonsensical rant I can add another obvious bfl sockpuppet account to ignore. These guys have more socks than a JC Penny white sale.
Ok, you finally answered the questions. See how easy that was, now we can discuss your answers. Next time, don't give 47 posts of evading the questions and you won't get a broken record.
The backlog includes every order up to the current minute.
backlog: 1. an accumulation of something, esp. uncompleted work or matters that need to be dealt with.
BFL said they could clear the backlog so they could then ship units to order.
If you want to change the rules, just change it so pre-orders were only orders before October 12th 2012. That way you are more certain to win.
It looks like you are saying you really have no idea how many orders BFL has. Good, we can stop talking about that purile nonsense of 70,000 orders of BFL backlog.
The closer we get to Sept 30th, the more we know about the size of BFL's backlog. BFL's cap on production per day is 300 units (if you believe them). There are 26 work days between now and Sept 30th. That says they can ship a maximum of 7800 devices between now and then. Using the 1.5 devices per order average from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ that says on average at their highest production rate for 26 days the ceiling on filled orders is 5200. They could work weekends too. That would add another 2400 devices which would increase their fulfillment to 6800 orders. That is pretty much the ceiling of what they can accomplish.
Reality is going to be a good deal lower than 300 units a day. There is no evidence that they have ever done 300 units a day. In fact when we have seen pictures of stacks of BFL boxes going into USPS trucks, there has never been more than 60 boxes. Also, the size of the USPS trucks (also visible in the pics) that show up couldn't fit more than 60 boxes inside. You would need a 1 TEU container to hold 300 boxes, so those should have been showing up daily. Each USPS box has roughly 1.5 to 2 cubic feet of space in it. 1 standard TEU has 1,360 cubic feet in it. So they would need 300 to 450 cubic feet and they would need to be on shipping pallets (so they don't jumble around and break). That would probably fit in 1 TEU, but definitely not in the small size trucks.
Even if I give them the benefit of the doubt and say that BFL could ship 150 units a day for the next 34 days straight, that means they will fill roughly 3400 orders. If that makes up 80% of their order book (20% already shipped). Then there were roughly 4200 orders total to begin with (8400 if we use the less likely 300 units a day). That is the ballbark we are dealing with if BFL can actually ship their backlog by Sept 30th.
Of course, if they weasel out of that and there are still thousands of orders in a backlog after Sept 30, I won't be surprised.
A pre-order is an order placed for an item which has not yet been released. Everything since is an order and won't be shipped until the pre-orders are taken care of. The only way YOUR version makes sense is if I word it "wont be shipped until the pre-order BACKLOG is taken care of" No need to "change the rules" you already stated it above, which I highlighted. Placed to order = not pre-ordered. Feel free to contradict yourself.The backlog includes every order up to the current minute.
backlog: 1. an accumulation of something, esp. uncompleted work or matters that need to be dealt with.
BFL said they could clear the backlog so they could then ship units to order.
If you want to change the rules, just change it so pre-orders were only orders before October 12th 2012. That way you are more certain to win.
It looks like you are saying you really have no idea how many orders BFL has. Good, we can stop talking about that purile nonsense of 70,000 orders of BFL backlog.
The closer we get to Sept 30th, the more we know about the size of BFL's backlog. BFL's cap on production per day is 300 units (if you believe them). There are 26 work days between now and Sept 30th. That says they can ship a maximum of 7800 devices between now and then. Using the 1.5 devices per order average from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ that says on average at their highest production rate for 26 days the ceiling on filled orders is 5200. They could work weekends too. That would add another 2400 devices which would increase their fulfillment to 6800 orders. That is pretty much the ceiling of what they can accomplish.
Reality is going to be a good deal lower than 300 units a day. There is no evidence that they have ever done 300 units a day. In fact when we have seen pictures of stacks of BFL boxes going into USPS trucks, there has never been more than 60 boxes. Also, the size of the USPS trucks (also visible in the pics) that show up couldn't fit more than 60 boxes inside. You would need a 1 TEU container to hold 300 boxes, so those should have been showing up daily. Each USPS box has roughly 1.5 to 2 cubic feet of space in it. 1 standard TEU has 1,360 cubic feet in it. So they would need 300 to 450 cubic feet and they would need to be on shipping pallets (so they don't jumble around and break). That would probably fit in 1 TEU, but definitely not in the small size trucks.
Even if I give them the benefit of the doubt and say that BFL could ship 150 units a day for the next 34 days straight, that means they will fill roughly 3400 orders. If that makes up 80% of their order book (20% already shipped). Then there were roughly 4200 orders total to begin with (8400 if we use the less likely 300 units a day). That is the ballbark we are dealing with if BFL can actually ship their backlog by Sept 30th.
Of course, if they weasel out of that and there are still thousands of orders in a backlog after Sept 30, I won't be surprised.
Now, by using YOUR DEFINITION, I could place an order on Sept 29th, and when they did not ship it on Sept 30 I could scream and yell and holler that they did not meet their stated aim of shipping their backlog. Sorry, it does not hold water. To estimate clearing ANYTHING you have to have a set figure. If you are constantly adding to this figure, the time will therefore increase as well. You are now claiming BFL can see into the future to know what orders will be placed and KNOW they can satisfy it. Typical troll.
Whoa, I need wikipedia here.... The twenty-foot equivalent unit (often TEU or teu) is an inexact unit of cargo capacity often used to describe the capacity of container ships and container terminals. There is a lack of standardisation in regards to height, ranging between 4 feet 3 inches (1.30 m) and 9 feet 6 inches (2.90 m), with the most common height being 8 feet 6 inches (2.59 m)... AMAZING! 20' long, 8' wide and 4'3" to 9'6" tall. 680 to 1520 CUBIC FEET. Quite a range there bud. That'd hold 1360 to 3040 of the large .5 cubic foot USPS flat rate packages measureing 12 by 12 by 5 1/2. Yea, I see a HUGE need for those TEUs.
When were these pictures taken? For 2 months only Jalapenos left the building, would really need that container for those! And gee, the post office would NEVER think to change the vehicle size they pick up with if the orders started ramping up, that'd be silly! Let's make 10 trips! And of course EVERYTHING is shipped by USPS as well! Why use Fed-Ex and UPS and DHL like the customers want for their expedited shipping? That'd make WAY too much sense.
You are looking a bad data and making assupmtions. That 15.5 Jalapenos a day average could be well over 100-150, we'll never know. The lowet Jan. Jala order is 15742 and the highest is 18379. 83 Jalapenos from 68 orders. All told, 182 orders spread over 2600 order numbers. Using the minimum they shipped 21 a day since Jan was cleared in 4 days.
Keep chanting your mantra,
There shouldn't be anymore discussions on this thread. Hasn't it all been said already? Wait for the original shipping date to approach then start again.
Any chance we can keep this thread on topic? Discussion around BFL delivery dates and such can have its own thread....
February... unless they delayed it again right?
Any chance we can keep this thread on topic? Discussion around BFL delivery dates and such can have its own thread....
Parody Protected by the 1st Amendment
I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.
So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.
After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
Were there 7PH/s of BFL orders in your estimation?
Were there 70,000 orders in your estimation?
Were there 100,000 devices ordered in your estimation?
You're record is stuck and now so is mine. You are using TOTAL POTENTIAL ORDERBOOK vice pre-order fact.
Now, do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 7PH ordered? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 70,000 potential orders? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been over 100,000 devices ordered? yes.
With all of the cancellations and refunds, do I still believe the above POSSIBLE ESTIMATES to be 100% valid? no.
Since the POTENTIAL 100k units ordered have been decimated by cancellations and refunds, your continued harping is still trolling.
Since the Backlog is only the preorders up until April 5th when the price changed, I do believe they have a fair shot of completing pre-orders by Sept 30.
Ok, you finally answered the questions. See how easy that was, now we can discuss your answers. Next time, don't give 47 posts of evading the questions and you won't get a broken record.
The backlog includes every order up to the current minute.
backlog: 1. an accumulation of something, esp. uncompleted work or matters that need to be dealt with.
BFL said they could clear the backlog so they could then ship units to order.
If you want to change the rules, just change it so pre-orders were only orders before October 12th 2012. That way you are more certain to win.
It looks like you are saying you really have no idea how many orders BFL has. Good, we can stop talking about that purile nonsense of 70,000 orders of BFL backlog.
The closer we get to Sept 30th, the more we know about the size of BFL's backlog. BFL's cap on production per day is 300 units (if you believe them). There are 26 work days between now and Sept 30th. That says they can ship a maximum of 7800 devices between now and then. Using the 1.5 devices per order average from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ that says on average at their highest production rate for 26 days the ceiling on filled orders is 5200. They could work weekends too. That would add another 2400 devices which would increase their fulfillment to 6800 orders. That is pretty much the ceiling of what they can accomplish.
Reality is going to be a good deal lower than 300 units a day. There is no evidence that they have ever done 300 units a day. In fact when we have seen pictures of stacks of BFL boxes going into USPS trucks, there has never been more than 60 boxes. Also, the size of the USPS trucks (also visible in the pics) that show up couldn't fit more than 60 boxes inside. You would need a 1 TEU container to hold 300 boxes, so those should have been showing up daily. Each USPS box has roughly 1.5 to 2 cubic feet of space in it. 1 standard TEU has 1,360 cubic feet in it. So they would need 300 to 450 cubic feet and they would need to be on shipping pallets (so they don't jumble around and break). That would probably fit in 1 TEU, but definitely not in the small size trucks.
Even if I give them the benefit of the doubt and say that BFL could ship 150 units a day for the next 34 days straight, that means they will fill roughly 3400 orders. If that makes up 80% of their order book (20% already shipped). Then there were roughly 4200 orders total to begin with (8400 if we use the less likely 300 units a day). That is the ballbark we are dealing with if BFL can actually ship their backlog by Sept 30th.
Of course, if they weasel out of that and there are still thousands of orders in a backlog after Sept 30, I won't be surprised.
I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.
So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.
After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
Were there 7PH/s of BFL orders in your estimation?
Were there 70,000 orders in your estimation?
Were there 100,000 devices ordered in your estimation?
You're record is stuck and now so is mine. You are using TOTAL POTENTIAL ORDERBOOK vice pre-order fact.
Now, do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 7PH ordered? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 70,000 potential orders? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been over 100,000 devices ordered? yes.
With all of the cancellations and refunds, do I still believe the above POSSIBLE ESTIMATES to be 100% valid? no.
Since the POTENTIAL 100k units ordered have been decimated by cancellations and refunds, your continued harping is still trolling.
Since the Backlog is only the preorders up until April 5th when the price changed, I do believe they have a fair shot of completing pre-orders by Sept 30.
I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.
So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.
After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
Were there 7PH/s of BFL orders in your estimation?
Were there 70,000 orders in your estimation?
Were there 100,000 devices ordered in your estimation?
*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.
http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.
Using it, we can simply add up:
...
To further bolster BCP19's side of the argument....
That site is useless, unless you want to apply a multiplier to it (of an unknown amount, but probably large).
For instance, I never entered my order on there. Not only that, there are tons of sizable gaps where there are most likely at least one order if not several... Detractors might say that those gaps are just caused by people entering an order in the system but never completing payment, but given that entering information on that site is 100% voluntary, there's no reason to think that even the majority of BFL orders are represented there.
For instance:
In the earliest days of ordering, the jump between order numbers is usually in the single digits (lots of sequential orders, and many others a handful of missing order #'s). Even by July, you're seeing many jumps of 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 slots between order numbers. All that indicates is many people didn't enter their orders into this site. From the june start date to the end of august, there are 537 orders represented on the site, which span a total 5280 order numbers. So, basically only 1 out of every 10 orders is accounted for (since we see that they often increase incrementally). Back out a few to represent uncompleted orders, and using this site still vastly undershoots the total number of orders that BFL has out there.
I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.
So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.
After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
You are still adding 2 + 2 and coming up complete order book. In reality 2 + 2 = pre-orders. You are still trolling.
I simply showed a "If A were true, then B would follow scenario" and now to you I have said A ***IS*** 100% TRUE!!!!!!!!! You refuse to understand the diffence and continue your trolling.
Since you continue to use fantasy numbers even after being told they ARE fantasy numbers, I must conclude you are only doing it for the troll value and treat your remaining responses as such.
You claim your 80TH "made sense" yet you use wild supposition like 150TH for chips that may or may not even be in the hands of the peope who ordered them. You are speculating just as badly as I was with my 7PH.
Using the MINIMUMS I listed before:
930 Jalapenos over the course 60 days of listed shipping. 15.5 per day minimum <-- a single person could do this in under an hour and a half.
123 L.S. over the course of 27 days of listed shipping. 4.5 per day minimum
298 Singles over the course of 41 days shipping. 5.5 per day minimum
45 500gh mini rig units over 34 days shipping. 1.3 per day minimum. <-- I bet *I* could build 2x that by myself in a day while learning how.
This is the problem with using such a small sample of orders. While you and all the other detractors firmly believe this is the maximum output BFL could do, I'd bet my next paycheck they have been doing at a minimum 2-3x that. Now's the time for your "400 units" bleating to begin.
The plain and simple fact here is you have been just as fast and loose with some of the numbers as I have, yet while I have admitted MANY MANY times those were guesses and estimates, you still consider them blood oaths and then turn around and prattle off numbers that also have no real basis of proof.
150TH of avalon chips = speculation.
Um, no. That is from the spreadsheet of orders that Avalon released. Plus some math to multiply the hash rate of each chip times the number of chips. Is that where you got lost? The math?Please consider that the hashrate isnt only 282MHz but instead 450MHz with the right miner. I use bitburner XX from burnin and my miner runs fine at 450MHz. Im really impressed of the great work of burnin.
ASICMiners' shares have dropped by almost 30%... what do the shareholders know we don't?
The reasons are two. One can watch the flow of bitcoins from asicminer to other securities that try to copy AM. The investors want a bit of the pie and hope for a second AM.
The other reason is that the dividends are lower now. Friedcat explained its because he keeps back Bitcoins for new investments. But people dont like low dividends.
I wont sell my shares. Asicminer will stay and hold a big part of the networks hashingpower. They have an advantage and i dont see why this should stop.
Here's the deal, Bick:
You had a "paint by numbers" business plan and you are, in every sense of the word, a failure at even that. You had a proven board design (by someone else). You had proven chips (by someone else). All you had to do was slap two separate parts together, chips and board... and you couldn't even accomplish that much. You are a terrible businessman. You have absolutely zero ability to follow through, even when everything, down to the last detail is handed to you on a silver platter.
You had a "paint by numbers" business plan and you are, in every sense of the word, a failure at even that. You had a proven board design (by someone else). You had proven chips (by someone else). All you had to do was slap two separate parts together, chips and board... and you couldn't even accomplish that much. You are a terrible businessman. You have absolutely zero ability to follow through, even when everything, down to the last detail is handed to you on a silver platter.
Am i seeing that wrong or do you blame him for Yifu not delivering the chips in time? If you create a business and it turns out the numbers change because Yifu did something wrong and the difficulty is rising way faster than anticipated then its a wise move to stop a business. It would be stupid to stay in when its easier and less costly to drop out.
Maybe i miss infos on it.
Too bad BFL can't actually prove that any of their claims are true. BFL will brag and say they have shipped more hash rate than anyone. However, when asked to declare exactly how many units have shipped and exactly how many more they have to go, BFL refuses to answer saying they don't want to say how many devices they have shipped.
Those two things don't add up. Also, you would have to pretend that Bitfury did not exist, and that every single Avalon chip out of the 800K that arrived early July has gone missing, and that ASICMiner has not added any hash rate in order for BFL's claim to be correct. The last sane analysis had them around 80TH shipped.
Those two things don't add up. Also, you would have to pretend that Bitfury did not exist, and that every single Avalon chip out of the 800K that arrived early July has gone missing, and that ASICMiner has not added any hash rate in order for BFL's claim to be correct. The last sane analysis had them around 80TH shipped.
Yeah. It's really pathetic. He's bragging about stuff no one else could possibly verify. he's also been mistaken about who else was shipping - claiming that no one was while B3 Avalons and bitfury chips were shipping.
*I* still never said 100,000 you did.
But you did when you said 70,000 orders from the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ dataset. You said there were 70,000 orders. That dataset has roughly 1.5 devices per order. Thus, roughly 100,000 devices. Therefore, if you want to use that data set and you want to declare that there are 70,000 orders then you have to accept that there are roughly 100,000 devices in those ordres. Elementary math.*I* also stated refunds and cancellations were not taken into account
Right. So between 0 and 7 PH/s were canceled. *I* knew I was overestimating, but you are still taking it as gospel.
We argued about it. You defended it religiously until the math became so obvious that you could not longer deny with a straight face. Then you started deleting the math from your posts like that would somehow make it disappear. Now you have started backpedaling. Just a few posts ago, you reaffirmed your support for a 7PH/s backlog. I take it now that you are disavowing that estimate? Or maybe you would just like to say that you have no idea what the size of BFL's order book is?*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.
You may think math is childish, but unfortunately it underpins everything about bitcoin. So if you want to hang out here you better learn not to make simple math mistakes or you will be ridiculed for it.http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.
Using it, we can simply add up:
Current blogs entries show MR up to July 28 32 known devices (1/3). + 13 known(2/3) 22.5TH minimum. (from ~13%[1/3] and ~25%[2.3] of possible orders.)
Singles are up to 6 JUL, 298 known devices. 18TH minimum. (from ~14% of possible orders)
LS are up to 11 Oct, 123 known devices. 3.075 TH minimum (from ~9.6% of possible orders)
Jala up to Jan 31. 930 known devices. 4.65TH minimum. (from ~8.4% of possible orders)
48TH from minimally known orders. I think we can easily double that to 96TH and say minimum they shipped.
Tripling it to 144TH possible. Quadrupling it to 194TH doubtful.
your 80TH is looking shaky.
But then, you refuse to do the math, likely cause you are afraid to show your ability.
I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.Using it, we can simply add up:
Current blogs entries show MR up to July 28 32 known devices (1/3). + 13 known(2/3) 22.5TH minimum. (from ~13%[1/3] and ~25%[2.3] of possible orders.)
Singles are up to 6 JUL, 298 known devices. 18TH minimum. (from ~14% of possible orders)
LS are up to 11 Oct, 123 known devices. 3.075 TH minimum (from ~9.6% of possible orders)
Jala up to Jan 31. 930 known devices. 4.65TH minimum. (from ~8.4% of possible orders)
48TH from minimally known orders. I think we can easily double that to 96TH and say minimum they shipped.
Tripling it to 144TH possible. Quadrupling it to 194TH doubtful.
your 80TH is looking shaky.
But then, you refuse to do the math, likely cause you are afraid to show your ability.
So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.
After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
My summary of BFL's new photoshopped vaporware:
2. ROI of your investment will not be 100% (more likely than not in BTC terms).
2. ROI of your investment will not be 100% (more likely than not in BTC terms).
Breakdown?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3008390
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