Topic: BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680 - page 5. (Read 41048 times)

Let's assume that BFL does everything perfectly and ships the Monarch in Feb. It's overpriced. KnCMiner, HashFast, CoinTerra, and BitFury will have better products long before then.

People who bought B1 or B2 Avalons, or ASICMiner shares did.  Not anyone who bought BFL hardware (except possibly people who bought very early and paid in USD that they otherwise wouldn't have spent on bitcoins)

There's a lot to consider.  Pre-orders are open now (Yes, I know BFL's history, no need to discuss further) and early adopters of new ASIC technology have often been greatly rewarded for taking some extra risk.  I'm taking that little extra risk and have converted an April pre-order for a Monarch.  And now I want to read what other people think, specifically about the Monarch and not about BFL's well-documented history.

And since when do we wait to talk about a future ASIC product?  It's pretty obvious to me that any new ASIC announcement generates lots of interest and is immediately a hot topic.


BitcoinTalk has a larger audience.  But I do read and post in BFL's forum too.  I like to get as much information as possible.

My prediction of your failure to deliver a lot of hashing power was accurate enough for me to make a lot of money.  

The key phrase was:


Right, an "asshole idiot" (or whatever profanity you intended - I suppose 'fuckhead' works too)  

The implication, I assume is that people who were able to predict the price increase in bitcoin and didn't buy a shitload of it were idiots.  Except the problem is that some people predicted both that the price would increase and that you would deliver what you sold them on time.  It's only their second prediction that failed. They didn't make any money because they believed they would deliver.  

On the other hand, I predicted you would fail, and because my prediction was correct I made a lot of money.

As far as having an adult conversation with you, that strikes me as highly unlikely.  And why would I even want too? You're a joke.

I think a lot of your detractors are people who lost a lot of money because they believed in you, and they hate you because of it. But for me it's the opposite.  I believed you would fail, and I made a lot of money because you did.  Really I should be thanking you.

The only reason I don't like you is because I feel bad for all the people you've fucked over.

the typo is irrelevant for the conclusion. It didn't lead to vastly false numbers.

No. An investment into bitcoin mining is a way to buy future bitcoins at current market price. Buyers of the August 2012 minirig bought the prospect of earning future bitcoins (>3000BTC) by spending bitcoins (3000BTC). The fact that they may have spent USD is irrelevant, because it is a different savings vehicle and looking at BTC/USD is only relevant for overhead costs (rent,electricity) which are not priced in bitcoin.
Due to delivery failures that prospect has shrunk to less than the bitcoins spent for buyers who haven't received any hardware to date. On top of that, buyers of ASICMINER now have the alternative to spent 420 BTC on an equivalent amount of hashing power - and that's where the profit loss becomes apparent, because hardware on hand is usually sold around prices similar to the expected ROI.

I understand that you would like to discredit the validity of DeathAndTaxes' assessment. However, this is not hindsight investing. That is market forces at play. Would the USD/BTC be $10/BTC right now, the eruptor blade would still cost 420 BTC, because that's what the expected ROI is in terms of future bitcoins.

I urge you, please don't try to misguide new people coming into the mining game by playing on their insufficient understanding between the relationship of the exchange rates vs. the viability of mining investments. Your company has done enough harm to the mining community by trapping/destroying a vast amount of capital with unfulfilled promises.

ADDENDUM: topic was moved: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029211

It's a very simple question, can't you answer it?  We already know all the answers, so which do you feel was the better value?

The first hind sight logic i've ever seen from bcp19... oh wait....

I have an interesting question for you:

We know the price of BTC was ~$6.50-7.00 on July 1, 2012 and that a 1.5TH mini-rig was selling for $29,899.  Let's call the BTC price at $6.50, which would be ~4600 BTC.  Your choices are to either Buy a mini-rig and wait for it to ship a year later or store your 4600 BTC until June 2013 when you can buy 2300 USB block erupters.  We know now the mini-rig order would ship on Aug 5th and the 2300 Block Erupters would be in hand within a week.  If these were your only choices, which do you feel is the better value?

 You are probably right. Not going to argue the point.

 Either way, I'm having fun

Xian,
  They absolutely will not pay for themselves ever at 0.35BTC each.  Even if you take the time out to infinity, the power costs will exceed the BTC produces at the current BTC/Fiat exchange rates.  I supposed if BTC valu increased significantly more that would change, but in that case you would still be better of just holding the BTC than buying the eruptors.

Maybe we actually need a subforum for companies that are reputable and want to resolve issues and based on an agreed to set of business standards?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/diy-custom-open-hardware-software-guild-call-for-ideas-282030

Well, you won't get any disagreement on that.

Truer words are seldom spoken.  The unfortunate reality though is that most poeple understimate and are wrong, which is why the current insane growth = panic.  I'd rather paint a dreary picture of the future and be pleasantly suprised when it does not happen, then paint a rosy picture and end up feeling like the stock market just crashed and I'm standing on top of a building.

If you overestimated then you would be wrong (as you are now) and everyone will have a positive outlook.

If you underestimate, and you are right, then everyone in the present will see this as a baseline for what is to come. Just make sure to create a *very reasonable* baseline.

What if everyone over-estimated?  You'd have a lot less unhappy people right now cause life would be better than they dreamed it would be.

Your estimations aren't realistic. You need to undershoot so that your estimates fall in line with reality.

ASICMINER had an offer several weeks ago where you could order 1 USB Block Erupter at BTC0.1 for every Erupter you had previously ordered with them.

Am I supposed to care?  You ducked the question... how did you get .1 BTC erupters?

 This is why many people have you on ignore.

I understand your meaning, but I don't even have a BFL hat on at the moment.

Everyone is so blinded by BFL hate they cannot see the big picture.  While I predicted today to be up close to 1PH network speed, I'm really not off by much(Since the network was less than 150TH when I predicted it).  My 7PH prediction by Nov 1 is looking a bit shaky as more and more companies delay.

When the logic states that it is criminal for BFL to sell so much product that their customers cannot make a positive RoI in 90 days(read fucked them), where does that leave us today?  NO company can guarantee a positive RoI in 90 days, yet ONLY BFL is fucking customers.  By this logic alone ASICMiner has fucked his customers since June cause those USB's will never earn positive RoI.

How many USB's you got Xian??? Since my GPU running ~300MH is getting .0023 daily I'd say yours are getting .0026 a day each maximum.  40 would be ~.104 per day, so your 'every couple hours' means you have like 320-500 of them.  I am confused over the .1 pricing though, last I checked they were at ~.35.