Topic: BFL or Avalon (Read 6208 times)

Nyet and Nyet.

Find another option.

uhh did you see that the last post was made nearly 3 months ago? everything in this thread is now irrelevant.

watching

The argument has not changed. If he had not bought BFL, he would still have the option to spend 80 of his 200 BTC to buy an Avalon batch 3 and still be able to recoup that investment.

I never forgot what I was arguing about. You confused the issue with exchange rates. No exchange was needed. The BFL's could be bought with BTC. The Avalon miner could be bought with BTC. They both only produce BTC. Mezzomix had BTC.

Compare apples to apples please. Stop converting the BTC (which can buy both Avalons and BFL units) into other units of exchange at various times to try to make BFL look good.

Compare apples to apples. He spent BTC to gain more BTC and instead gained less. Simple. Straightforward. No exchange rate needed to illustrate that he lost out picking BFL in June 2012.

The batch 3 Avalon unit can still earn back it's 80 BTC and therefore can still be profitable. Maybe BTC are each worth $1 each by then, maybe $100 each, maybe $1000 each, but we don't need to speculate on the future exchange rate. As long as the Avalon can earn more than 80 BTC it can be profitable.

Had he not spent his 200 BTC on BFL he could have gotten a much better deal with Avalon later on because the 200 BTC would be available for an alternative investment. One possible alternative investment could have gotten over twice the hash rate. Simple, Straightforward. No exchange rate needed to illustrate that.

I love how you have resorted to changing the argument.  Find once where I said SPECIFICALLY that him choosing BFL SPECIFICALLY was a good or bad idea.  You can pick anything out of 1 sentence, but it requires you to actually COMPREHEND what you are reading to understand the whole paragraph.  It is not our fault that you just read things without actually thinking or comprehending.

The argument and conversation was specifically based on the fact that he said he would not be able to recoup his 200BTC.  It is not our fault after all of your rambling that you forgot what you were arguing about.  My argument towards him was related to him not being able to get his 200BTC back and the fact that he was comparing spending 200BTC in june (at the time worth 1299) and could have spent 80BTC for Avalon batch #3 in March (worth ~$7500).  Plain and simple.  

We already discussed the fact that you don't care what the price of bitcoin is, you just want bitcoins.  The rest of us want bitcoins because they are worth money.

Mezzomix paid 200 BTC for a device from BFL that cannot earn 200 BTC.
You have agreed that this is not good.

Mezzomix is entitled to complain because the only thing that could have changed his fortune is if BFL delivered the Single before the difficulty went ballistic.
There is no current or future exchange rate into any alternate currency that can make Mezzomix's investment in BFL better than not investing in BFL when he did. Past exchange rates cannot change because they are in the past. So exchange rates are not relevant. We are not measuring just how screwed Mezzomix was by BFL, we are simply saying that he was better off not buying a BFL single back in June 2012. This is simple math. Obviously, the more valuable BTC become in USD, the more USD Mezzomix has lost. But we are not talking about losing USD, we are talking about losing BTC by spending BTC to buy a device to mine BTC.

All hope is not lost however. If difficulty ever stops rising for long enough, then Mezzomix will eventually earn his BTC back.
Maybe all the Avalons stop working due to shoddy manufacturing...

Thank you ThatDGuy

couldn't have said it better myself.

I hope that commentary includes how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.


That does not explain how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

It does not explain how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

Still no explanation of how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.



We do not need to discuss opportunity cost to determine that Mezzomix is worse off for buying BFL. If you want to demonstrate that Mezzomix is even worse off because of the lost opportunity cost of using that 200 BTC instead of having BFL hold it for 11 months and counting.

There is no need to consider exchange rate because Mezzomix paid BTC for his order. BFL allows you to pay BTC for orders. Bitcoin leaves Mezzomix's wallet, and BFL gives him a pre-order for equipment that does nothing but generate BTC. You are including other variables because you are desperate to deflect this fact.
You and hexed brought up exchange rate, not Mezzomix and not I.

Neither of you are willing to explain how Mezzomix is better off with less BTC than he started with.
Your tedious convolutions only expose you as blind shills who attack everything that criticizes BFL.

The sole purpose of BFL hardware is to mine BTC. Thank you for agreeing with me and Mezzomix.


More than just several. I wish you would stop including them.


You keep bringing up random statements (duct tape and rockets) that have nothing to do with the original premise which was:

Yes, he chose poorly. He will probably never get his 200 BTC back. Thus his was not a "bullshit statement" as you earlier claimed and have now recanted.

These are also words that you have typed into a computer, but it has nothing to do with Mezzomix and his BFL order.

ahhh yes, as I had mentioned...


..but that is ok, k9quaint will continue to argue a point even though the other SEVERAL factors I included make no sense.  It's like saying..

Mezzomix said he wants to be launched into space duck taped to a homemade rocket!  It is possible so you are wrong!!!  When the actually premises of the idea is true (yes, if you had a nice enough rocket, you could certainly launch yourself into space).. but the truth of the matter is, he will die before he gets there.. since you know.. there are other FACTORS at play there.  But instead of seeing how ridiculous the idea is, you just argue the fact that it is possible to prove a point.  A point that most people would not care about.

If Mezzomix thought that when he ordered the BFL device, that you would be able to mine MORE BTC than what you purchased it for, then in the words of the Knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.. "He chose... poorly".

When I ordered in August 2012, I thought "No matter if I get my device now, or later, I'm betting on the price of BTC to go up when the reward halves so I think I will still make a profit."  Now I had done my due diligence and found out that they were notorious for late shipping, over promising and under delivering.. so I personally thought that the shipping would be late.  Of course I didn't think it would be THIS late. Whether or not the price went up because of the reward halving, I am still going to profit.  In fact, my 3 GPU's I have are still mining away making anywhere from $150-$250 a month, and they only equal ~1.35GH/s.  If I can still profit with them, then I'll be just fine with ~40GH/s of devices.

The more you pretend that Mezzomix made money by ordering from BFL, the more people realize that you are just here to deny all anti-BFL positions.
When people read your posts, they will realize that the only people left defending BFL are those that cannot do simple math.

This explains why you're impossible to reason with. You don't consider anything except your present emotions...

If BFL had delivered when they said they would deliver, the investment would have been good. They did not, so the investment was bad.

This discussion has been completely sidetracked on irrelevant statements.
Let us refocus it to what was originally stated by hexed and that I disagreed with:


Hexed is wrong, Mezzomix is right.

My reply was:

We do not need to consider why difficulty rose. We do not need to consider alternative investments like Avalon or ASICMiner shares. We do not need to consider exchange rates. Nobody has yet explained why getting less than 200 BTC back was good for Mezzomix.

Really well-designed scenario that would satisfy the rules of a "good investment" by terms of BTC only which is being suggested above (which I did not create, not support the legitimacy of), while at the same time exemplifying one possible cause and effect relationship of BTC value due to exchange rate.

I agree with your overall assessment - and wish you the best of luck with this:


Using the letters "BFL" historically opens the doors for all kinds of other goodies being injected to clearly-established hypothetical or theoretical scenarios    (Your example may be more of a hypothetical than theoretical, in this case, but that's probably just semantics)

Ok ThatDGuy. 

I think we can see where the disconnect is with these guys.  They are basically saying that the exchange rate has absolutely nothing to do with their investment in BTC.  So yes, I agree that if your sole purpose was to mine BTC and hold on to BTC with no regard to how much they are actually WORTH in USD.. then yes, you will not get back an equal amount of BTC. 

But in an effort to get out of the "only black and white" and into the grey area (which is where most of us miners exist)...

So in their minds, if someone paid ~24BTC today to buy a Single, and they received their miner in September, and let's say the USD price in September (when they receive their Single) of a bitcoin was down to $15 USD.  Lets also say that because of this dramatic price drop that several thousands of people with ASIC and GPU miners left bitcoin mining therefore making the difficulty drop dramatically.  So with the new price and difficulty, let's say it is possible for a person to make 48 BTC in 6 months.  Would you concider it a wise investment?  You originally paid 24 BTC and now within 6 months you have  DOUBLED your BTC!!  So originally you paid 24BTC (at the time worth 2400$) and in September-February you mined 48 BTC (at the time worth $720). But of course since these people don't care about exchange rates, THEY WIN!! right?

..and please don't knit pick about the specifics of this theoretical situation.  This is not to argue what the price/difficulty/ of BTC will be in the future, or to speculate on BFL's shipping schedule.  This is SPECIFICALLY designed to show you the mentality of people like k9quaint and others arguing this point.  The fact is, MOST of us actually care what the exchange rate is on a BTC.  If BTC's exchange rate were to stay the same, I, along with the majority of miners would rather have 20 bitcoins worth 100$ than 200 bitcoins worth 1$.  Obvious there is a small amount of people who don't so there is really no arguing with them.  Either they have an ENTIRELY different way of thinking or they are trolling.  Either way they will not be swayed.

However what I AM saying is that most people (except for the VERY small percentage of people in this thread) care how much return they get back in fiat..  Wells Fargo still doesn't take BTC for my mortgage payment and if it did, it would STILL be based on how much BTC is worth in dollars

I understand that we no longer need to speculate about the past.

I agree that a BFL order for a single at 200 BTC was a bad investment, in hindsight.

In relation to your statement of the following:


I am asserting that your last sentence is marginalizing other factors.  It isn't really as "Simple" as "He gambled on BFL delivering and lost."  Anyone, even today, who is purchasing a mining device that they don't receive instantly in their possession is gambling on a number of variables and (hopefully) considers the potential difficulty increase, the exchange rate, and how the latter most noticeably drives the former.

Your sentence immediately preceding these two confirms this, in a way:


The customer would have been worse off literally buying anything at all with BTC. They were also gambling against the exchange rate, and they lost that too.  Big time, unfortunately.

The delays, while extremely unfortunate in cases like these, do not eliminate other variables despite how much emotional energy the distressed customer might allow them (or convince them) to psychologically.

Right now, 5GH/s will earn 5 BTC per month according to http://dustcoin.com/mining.
June orders for Jalapenos will have paid roughly 22 BTC for a Jalapeno, that can be made back eventually I think since they have been hashing for a while already.
August and September orders for Jalapenos will have paid 15 BTC. If they get their devices today, they will probably make their BTC back and a little extra.

Single and Mini-rig orders from June are doomed unless the difficulty stops rising.

 Apologies if I'm late to the party here, or got the memo a bit late, and I thought it was just coincidence in the past, but it's getting very hard not to draw direct links between the wrenchmonkey account and a certain someone we've all grown to love.

 It's just getting uncanny now :|

 

It's a simple extrapolation of future difficulty increases. No one who has received a BFL unit will mine more BTC than they spent purchasing the unit. They lost.

More baseless sweeping generalizations not even remotely founded in fact... Keep trying though. The more BFL ships, the angrier you idiots get. Why is that?