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Topic: {BFL} Why The Monarch Might Just Work (Read 5990 times)

legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1006
First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
August 22, 2013, 10:26:14 PM
I welcome all people who think this way to the BTC world.  BTC is a zero sum game so whatever extra fiat value they waste into BTC makes my holdings worth that much more.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 06:37:26 PM
I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin
The price I wanted for my Z28 last November equaled 400BTC.  I am simply honoring your insistance that BTC should remain an unchanging currency.  Therefore the price remains 400BTC.  If you would have been willing to pay 400BTC for it last Novemebr, under your current mindset, then you should also be willing to pay the same 400 BTC for it now.

Your unwillingness to indicates you feel you would be ripped off.  Can you explain why you feel that way?

I did not say that BTC is an unchanging currency. I said when you buy an ASIC miner you are buying BTC because the only thing that determines the equipment's ultimate worth is the amount of BTC it returns by mining. Those are very different statements.

You want to sell me an ASIC miner called a Z28 for 400 BTC, but your Z28 hasher is expected to mine 0 BTC, so I would never pay 400 BTC for it. If you could demonstrate that the Z28 hasher was expected to mine over 500 BTC, I would consider paying 400 BTC for it.
It does have over 400 horsepower.  All you need to do is figure out how to get 1.25 BTC worth of mining per horsepoewer and you are set.  Maybe you could develop a drum and use the horsepower to drive the drum and then have the drum turn wheels that calculated hashes and boom. you're set!
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
August 22, 2013, 06:17:20 PM
I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin
The price I wanted for my Z28 last November equaled 400BTC.  I am simply honoring your insistance that BTC should remain an unchanging currency.  Therefore the price remains 400BTC.  If you would have been willing to pay 400BTC for it last Novemebr, under your current mindset, then you should also be willing to pay the same 400 BTC for it now.

Your unwillingness to indicates you feel you would be ripped off.  Can you explain why you feel that way?

I did not say that BTC is an unchanging currency. I said when you buy an ASIC miner you are buying BTC because the only thing that determines the equipment's ultimate worth is the amount of BTC it returns by mining. Those are very different statements.

You want to sell me an ASIC miner called a Z28 for 400 BTC, but your Z28 hasher is expected to mine 0 BTC, so I would never pay 400 BTC for it. If you could demonstrate that the Z28 hasher was expected to mine over 500 BTC, I would consider paying 400 BTC for it.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 06:11:13 PM
I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin
The price I wanted for my Z28 last November equaled 400BTC.  I am simply honoring your insistance that BTC should remain an unchanging currency.  Therefore the price remains 400BTC.  If you would have been willing to pay 400BTC for it last Novemebr, under your current mindset, then you should also be willing to pay the same 400 BTC for it now.

Your unwillingness to indicates you feel you would be ripped off.  Can you explain why you feel that way?
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
August 22, 2013, 05:41:47 PM
And if it turned out to give you 20BTC but the USD/BTC rate sank to $5?  Clearly some people here will call that a good deal, but others would've preferred the cash.

If you are buying an ASIC miner, you have already decided to buy BTC. The question then becomes, what is the best method to acquire BTC?
For every point on the USD/BTC exchange rate, 13 BTC is worth more than 10 BTC and 20 BTC is worth more than 13 BTC. If the device gives you 20, then you would be better off than if you bought a device that gave you 10. You would also be better off than if you had bought the 13 BTC from MtGox and held it.

Now if the exchange rate drops to $5, the problem was that you decided to invest in BTC, even though you may have picked the best way to do so.
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
August 22, 2013, 05:37:51 PM
And if it turned out to give you 20BTC but the USD/BTC rate sank to $5?  Clearly some people here will call that a good deal, but others would've preferred the cash.

Yes, 20 BTC is better than 13 BTC and better than 10 BTC. AT ANY AND ALL EXCHANGE RATES.
member
Activity: 74
Merit: 10
August 22, 2013, 05:33:22 PM
And if it turned out to give you 20BTC but the USD/BTC rate sank to $5?  Clearly some people here will call that a good deal, but others would've preferred the cash.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1750
Verified Bernie Bro - Feel The Bern!
August 22, 2013, 05:24:01 PM
This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

You would have given up 13 BTC to get 10 BTC.
That is a loss of 3 BTC.
If you are buying a miner, it is surely because you want to get more BTC.
Instead, it gave you less.
It has used up lots of electricity, and generated lots of heat, to leave you with less BTC than you started with.
Where do I sign up?

http://butterflylabs.com/
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 22, 2013, 05:20:40 PM
#99
This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

You would have given up 13 BTC to get 10 BTC.
That is a loss of 3 BTC.
If you are buying a miner, it is surely because you want to get more BTC.
Instead, it gave you less.
It has used up lots of electricity, and generated lots of heat, to leave you with less BTC than you started with.
Where do I sign up?
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 05:11:03 PM
#98
Well, we know fractal02 is American.

legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
August 22, 2013, 05:06:46 PM
#97
I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin



Well, we know fractal02 is American.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 05:04:07 PM
#96
I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin

hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 05:02:15 PM
#95
Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.
He's just a shill for BFL.

From the biggest Avalon Shill...humm...well...humm...you know...it's funny  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
August 22, 2013, 04:44:15 PM
#94
I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 04:40:34 PM
#93
The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.
Every item has a static BTC price at the time you consider buying it. Just like every item has a static GBP or EUR price too. Do the exchange rate calculation, and you will know who many EUR, GBP, USD or BTC something costs no matter what currency it is "priced" in. If it is mining equipment, you will know what it was worth after it is done mining all the Bitcoin it will mine. Then you can compare what it cost you in BTC to what it was worth in BTC and see if you got ripped off.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.
But you are unable to explain why you think this to be so. Either your ego won't let you admit that you got ripped off, or you have some vested interest in presenting BFL in the best light. Either way, you seem to be out of arguments besides "nuh uh!".  Grin

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
August 22, 2013, 04:39:07 PM
#92
The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.
Every item has a static BTC price at the time you consider buying it. Just like every item has a static GBP or EUR price too. Do the exchange rate calculation, and you will know who many EUR, GBP, USD or BTC something costs no matter what currency it is "priced" in. If it is mining equipment, you will know what it was worth after it is done mining all the Bitcoin it will mine. Then you can compare what it cost you in BTC to what it was worth in BTC and see if you got ripped off.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.
But you are unable to explain why you think this to be so. Either your ego won't let you admit that you got ripped off, or you have some vested interest in presenting BFL in the best light. Either way, you seem to be out of arguments besides "nuh uh!".  Grin
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 22, 2013, 04:31:16 PM
#91
The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC.  

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
August 22, 2013, 04:21:01 PM
#90
The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 454
Merit: 250
August 22, 2013, 04:08:32 PM
#89
The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
member
Activity: 74
Merit: 10
August 22, 2013, 03:05:37 PM
#88

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

Only if the exchange is always stable or moving in one direction.  For example when I was trading I often gave up overall USD value in order to improve my BTC position over time.  In a way this only arises due to mistakes (buying too early in this case), but realistically without perfect information you can never act perfectly.  But often you can still come out ahead despite this.  Anyway I don't know how this is relevant to mining, but just pointing out how different priorities allow different actions to make sense.

I also like the 'and some like mining comment'  Cheesy
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