Better question is..How many altcoins are one year old?
Quite a lot actually. Easily enough to support the point I'm making and none that endorse your's.
Do you know how long it took BTC to get to the point where it is now?
Bitcoin had the market nearly all to itself for 3 years. That allowed it to gain a massive amount of network effect and adoption. No altcoin is within even 1 thirtieth of Bitcoin's marketcap. You cannot use Bitcoin's track record as evidence that a new altcoin will appreciate in the long term. Altcoins depreciate in the long term due to rapid obsolescence and growth of competition.
Bitcoin has the opposite behaviour. It is unique in that regard. The more alts that appear the less impact each successive one has on Bitcoin's relative marketcap. Not since Litecoin November-2013 has anything got so close despite introducing technologies that are way more advanced than what Bitcoin has.
Issue is that people are impatient and anyone who is impatient will never get big profit out of anything.
I'd say the opposite is true if you look at the trading evidence of the last 18 months. Those who got out at the first post-launch speculative "pump" profited while those who waited a year lost all their money. This was the case for almost every single alt-coin launch I can think of bar none. Just off the top of my head, PPC, XPM, NXT, AUR, DRK, MOON, QRK, WDC, BLC...I could go on add infinitum.
I'm not saying it's not possible that a project break this trend. I'm saying it's unlikely because even if it's successful, that success will immediately attract enough competition into the market to offset any long term gains that weren't priced into its initial speculative valuation.
Winner wasn't the guy who bought BTC in last december after the spike, it's not the guy who bought facebook share after it became popular, it wasn't the guy who invested in google after it became global search engine..
ok, I can't disagree with you there, but you've got to see ALL altcoins as almost a single market. The activity, technology and valuations surf from one project to the next. Developers like new stuff. They'll drop a project like a hot brick when something more interesting comes along which right now is every couple of weeks. Same with traders once they've taken profits from the initial pump. Ask any average trader which altcoins they are in at the moment and 99% it won't bear any resemblance to the ones they were in a year ago.
Quite a lot?
not really. If you can list 10 coins that are one year old I'll be impressed.
18 months is nothing. You have to give it 3 years at least. As you said yourself "altcoin is experiment" that means once experiment phase is over in few years. Few altcoins would rise and if the coin you're invested in has potential nothing can stop it from rising.
Again, don't think BTC is everything and nothing would replace it because that can be said for anything yet everything has been replaced with something that was better. It's a circle of life and technology. Nothing is permanent. It might take 5 years or even 10 but it will get replaced as more and more people become aware of altcoins. New generation (kids who are 5-10 yrs old) would be 20 in ten years and that would be new era for altcoins and everything is possible including BTC getting replaced with something else.
Altcoins are single market in a sense that there is one section for all altcoins on btctalk but every single altcoin has different reason behind it. All of them will see pump/dump etc but once experiment phase is over you're looking at something that will change the world forever.
Lets see why Bay has potential:
1.) No mining. It means any investor can jump in without having to worry about getting destroyed by person who mined 100k worth of coins in early days.
2.) Decentralized marketplace: Buy what you need without having to worry about exposing your financial info online.
3.) Smart contracts: More security and safer transaction.
4.) Fast transaction time
5.) Hard working Dev who has great history.
6.) POS 2.0
You can find above qualities in other altcoins but NONE of them have everything and that's what makes Bay unique from everything else that have ever existed in crypto till today.