Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 99. (Read 540250 times)

No it didn't.  Here's what really happened today:

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

It's just one example of a long term moving average line that it has just broken below; simply one of many possible psychological barriers a down trend can finally break through.  Who knows what the consequences are -- it could still go up or go down.

Here's a chart of the monthly and yearly EMA, since the most recent dip:



The pink line there is similar to the WMA that was just crossed.  We'll see if it also drops below this EMA line.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Weighted_moving_average

What does that mean?
Can you give a graphics?
What are the consequences?

365 day WMA has been broken, 365 day EMA is probably next.

Im going to sleep now guys..and when i wake up its gonna be around 7.9$...cause im just lucky like that..bet if i sell out right now the price will shoot up..lol

Not trying to attack, just making a point but:
Now that i think about it; It would be more difficult to go by the exchange rate. I mean at least I check my invoices at least 3-5 times a day and bitcoin prices change quicker and faster then that, by the time I would notice that someone put in an order the exchange rate would have already changed and I end up having to pay for the customer either way(unless i forced customers to pay for the price difference, which by that time exchange rate could go back up). At best I could hook up my website to an exchange API but those are prone to hax and your forced to go by one exchanger unless you programmed to go off by the best available price from multple exchangers in which that case you have to do even more programming and testing

Just sounds like a fuster cluck to me.....

PM sent Xenland

Its not desperate if you can make a profit.. its called running a business

My respects bro, but not all ecommerces are just so desperate

Oh my good sir... this crazy man called Xenland right here mate... hehe

Locked in monthly BTC prices. I don't follow exchange rate.
www.CheaperInBitcoins.com hopefully this will help the flow of Bitcoins and "tighten" the market a tid-bit.

Bitcoin, or its price is what never can be controlled or dictated.

The way to get bitcoin price up is taking part in getting up overall bitcoin turnover. What makes turnover? Goods or services. But what crazymen will offer goods or services with current exchange rate volatility?

There is the one business which is not so sencitive to volatility. Is the gambling and HYPEs.

So it is the bitcoin gamling epoch is now comming, which will make the major turnover percent and will rise bitcoin price. When the price will get stable, people will look around to offer goods and services for bitcoin.

But now bitcoin is just great buble. Its price is 100% correlated with its popularity.

Sorry If my english not perfect.

The poll is reset again. What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same?
Don't know?

Ya... I think that this is the key point... Bitcoin isn't going to go up until the fundamentals dictate the need for a higher price.

The economy size is slowly growing to the size that supports the current value (maybe $5 atm... eg. equiv 35M market cap.)  Once the underlying market grows in size larger than the price represented on mtgox, then more bitcoin's will (on average) be withdrawn from mtgox than deposited.  (They are more valuable elsewhere).   The will tighten up the entire trading market; this will be reflected on the price.  (Rarer coins fetch higher prices).

For a big rally, we need the competition for the bitcoins…  The most natural way we can get more competition are more investors going after the same pool…?

I think that both is happening:  as bitcoins are getting valued more elsewhere, the flow of bitcoin’s into mtgox and other trading sites will slow down, causing the pool to get smaller;  and that more investors are slowly taking an interest in holding bitcoins.

The real question is when the market will start feeling ‘tight.’

Please remember this market has a built in ongoing negative bias.  Approximately .1% of the market cap (and a much larger % of the float) gets added daily through mining activity.  The graph looks different if you "trend adjust" 3% monthly.

That said, we're definitely looking at a pennant on the weekly chart confirmed by volume (although I'm not sure how much I trust the volumes in a bot-infested market).  Definitely could go either way soon, and violently.  I completely agree - the market is hanging back waiting for leadership.

What you are projecting is a possibility, but remains our alternate forecast as long as we do not see a strong breakout above 12 $.

As long as this remains, we continue to expect lower prices. Often the markets do not need a reason for falling, they just fall upon its onw weight.

I don't see it either. The midterm can be said to be down but the short term can't anymore. In fact it's becoming more unclear every day if the midterm is down either.

There is massive resistance on the way down to $5, in fact breaking $7 seems really hard and fairly important at this point if there is to be a really low price. And importantly, the volumes for bear days have been very low as well so there is really no strong will to go either up or down.

I agree with chodpabas recent assessment of there not actually being a trend either way at this point. We're simply seeing traders moving the price up and down but the general trend of people wanting to buy and people wanting to sell seems fairly even right now. Now is the time when a big time investor, or a big time seller, could make a large impact and change the game.

I'm really interested in the current situation because it might be that we won't see the kind of lows at all that some people have predicted. I have this month in general as a bull month and I was hoping for a lower low so the rally can really start, but now it's hard to say when we'll have a clear trend. Without a clear trend it's going to require a lot of new interest in Bitcoin to raise the price significantly because a lot of currently involved investment money is not committing without a clear trend.

And perhaps a clear upward trend requires a lot of new interest anyway, so

IMO there's too much bot noise on mtgox to get a clear read of investor sentiment.  Try the same timeframe on e.g. tradehill.

I see $8 by Wed. of next week far more likely than a breakdown to $5, let alone $3.  Over the next few weeks, sure, we could hit those lows.   Short term?  I don't see the same breakdown you do.  Just continued slow pain for the longs, no quick decisive surgical action.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com

latest short term analysis

thanks. I did not come across this one yet.