Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 97. (Read 540249 times)

How do you figure that?

 
Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

I'm not convinced 'days destroyed' paints a positive picture. The biggest peak since June was late August about the time of a 30% sell off on the markets. Perhaps dormant coins had been awoken from hibernation only to be dumped on an exchange. This week's 'days destroyed' look a bit like April.

That number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all.

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed

Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.

Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.

Yeah, I don't think you ought to be using the market depth for a 4 week projection.

I voted "Same as now" as there are pretty big walls in the $5-$6 range. But I am not an active trader so it could be that MtGox just looks like it has huge walls in my perspective

Quite a difference in sentiment compared to recent past polls.

The first time I bought at one of these tangent points - and that was a great decision

Thank you. I always try to do my best.

by the way, I have reset the poll again. As promised, a sentiment analysis will be done this weekend and shared publicly.


What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

This guy(or gal) is so pro he uses the psycology of the community to assist him in his predicitons thats some smart thinking i gotta say youve been pretty on par for as long as i been tracking your predictions.

Great work!

I’d say that they have a great percentage of BTC and USD funds though.

I cannot see how this long term support channel (http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/BTCUSD20110919-dailylog1-bclong-ind1.png) works - the investors who remember the minima it goes through are such a small percentage of the speculators of today, I cannot see how this memory could survive, but apparently it holds so far.  Self fulfilling prophecy?

I was hoping it go to 2...

But since the bottom is at 4.5 or something, I made my new investments at 5 USD.

Lower than my last time! (8 USD)

=D

I am happy, as long as the market moves in either direction, though would be happier with rally

The fact that so many people "would like" to see lower prices before is a good sentiment indicator that new lows get less and less likely.

I would like that before the rally bitcoin to be something about $2, and everybody have the chance to buy some. Also I say again, bitcoin should be used as MONEY more! A new speculative rally, even with "new highs up to $100" means nothing if 6 months after this 1 BTC = 4 USD.

Yes, pretty much BUY BUY BUY!

So... BUY BUY BUY!!!!

Overall, Bitcoin prices are at a very interesting juncture and people may memorize the "Bitcoin September 2011" in history.

As expected in the last technical analysis, bitcoin prices did not hold the 5.74 $ level. Bitcoin prices fell another -30% to 4.18 $.

Looking ahead, the stabilization around the 4 $ range in recent days, plus the bullish divergences of key indicators point to a strong possibility of a rally.

 

 chart: see http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com

 

Technical Analysis

We focus today on the big picture, the long term view.

There is a lot of chatter about the "BITCOIN BUBBLE", but in reality there is no bubble in bitcoins. Definitely not yet. Why is the decline from June no bubble?

 

1) The bitcoin price decline as evident in the attached logarithmic bitcoin chart looks like a standard correction: The 1 year rally has been much steeper than the 3 months correction. The logarithmic chart is the right way to visualize prices because prices rose exponentially in a very short period of time.

2) The volumes in turnover (not shown here) of the rally is much stronger than the volume of the past 3 months correction.

 

3) Pessimism has been and still is very strong, as evidenced by bitcoin investor sentiment poll data and the "doom & gloom" comments in the bitcoin forum. We have been using this sentiment very successfully as contrary indicator: When too many people are bearish, they are not invested and hope for lower prices. As prices may never get lower, they need to chase the rally in some point and the rally gains momentum.

4) Key indicators such as RSI and MACD show bullish divergences (see bitcoin chart)

5) Bitcoin prices have respected the key long term red uptrend line and tested successfully. This uptrend line is very strong support. And even another decline into the 3-4 $ area is still a possibility which would not invalidate the longterm uptrend as we can draw the uptrend line also a bit different (see orange line).

6) Bitcoin prices are on the verge of a breakout above the green downtrend line, which could initiate a strong rally.

 

Only a high volume, sustained break below 3 $ will make us turn long term bearish bitcoins. Otherwise, there is upside potential to new all time highs, into the 50 - 100 $ area. At the same time, one has to be patient, as the rise to those levels will not be a "straight line".

As always, we update the short term picture closely in the subscriber section of http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com