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Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 100. (Read 540250 times)

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1008
1davout
This is not directly related to bitcoin trading and bitcoin chart analysis, but can have a big impact on bitcoin prices:

check this out.

http://bit.ly/nXcRYg

That's not really news, these declarations have been around for a while.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
This is not directly related to bitcoin trading and bitcoin chart analysis, but can have a big impact on bitcoin prices:

check this out.

http://bit.ly/nXcRYg
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
I am really hoping the exchanges will be more proactive managing all those issues and come up with the right steps to bring more confidence of investors and traders, technical people, everyone soon.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
I have viewed quite  a few fake walls, which really disappered quickly (perhaps got partially filled). So it is definitely happening. At the same time, there are also many real walls.

Net, there is both happening.

Yeah, I remember some from the past. My point is that you can fill them fully without them having a chance to react if you have enough funds.

I see a decrease in the effectiveness of such manipulation, imo the order book influences very little anymore, even if extremely unbalanced. We’ve seen a strong downward push when bids outnumbered asks by >2:1, and now the picture has completely changed.

A thing to keep in mind is that there can also be manipulation in form a lack of bids/asks, and not only from walls. I’ve experienced that the last few weeks when supply seemed to be dried up, but when someone bought a bunch, the bots just refilled.

----

To come back to topic: MtGox’s loops make it really hard to judge any charts. Does anyone know of a chart that manages to filter this crap, plus its volume?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Like many people said, we should not look too much into the orderbook. Experienced traders, and particularly those who can use bots, will use this to fool others with this strategy.
I agree with this, but the idea of "fake walls" is completely ridiculous, and I’m quite sick of reading it on these forums. I haven’t seen any that were cancelled when touched for a while. Also, I remember a wall of 10k BTC somewhere around ~8.5$ recently which was completely filled at ONCE.

Walls are not fake. Every single order can be filled without any chance for the owner to cancel it if it happens at once, even the very big ones by people who have the means to. It is a real risk to have such an order without intending to actually have it executed.

But generally it is true that the order book is way too easy to manipulate by bots, changing the entire shape in seconds. This can be prevented by small, for humans insignificant fees for cancellation or setting of orders.

I have viewed quite  a few fake walls, which really disappered quickly (perhaps got partially filled). So it is definitely happening. At the same time, there are also many real walls.

Net, there is both happening.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Like many people said, we should not look too much into the orderbook. Experienced traders, and particularly those who can use bots, will use this to fool others with this strategy.
I agree with this, but the idea of "fake walls" is completely ridiculous, and I’m quite sick of reading it on these forums. I haven’t seen any that were cancelled when touched for a while. Also, I remember a wall of 10k BTC somewhere around ~8.5$ recently which was completely filled at ONCE.

Walls are not fake. Every single order can be filled without any chance for the owner to cancel it if it happens at once, even the very big ones by people who have the means to. It is a real risk to have such an order without intending to actually have it executed.

But generally it is true that the order book is way too easy to manipulate by bots, changing the entire shape in seconds. This can be prevented by small, for humans insignificant fees for cancellation or setting of orders.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Like many people said, we should not look too much into the orderbook. Experienced traders, and particularly those who can use bots, will use this to fool others with this strategy.

I used the order book well from October 2010 to March / April 2011, but after it got too inconsistent due to the above mentioned phenomenon.
legendary
Activity: 1199
Merit: 1012
Maybe, I don't know if it's fake or not. Well someone expects to sell about 7000 BTC at 9.55$. With a 5300 daily volume, that could take a while. Now suppose that is fake and it will be taken down, then there will be no resistance.

Before the price droped to 5-9 zone I saw the opposite picture: almost nothing on the right side, and 2 orange walls on the left. But both vanished and the price dropped. I think we should make our judgments based on some more reliable data. Probably volumes and price of actual trades are not fake.

Quote
But what if he decides to dump it a current price? It could burn all the way to 8$.

Then he would do it carefully so that nobody notices. Probably he would make a fake orange wall to keep the price high Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1005
If the price moves in the next 2-6 hours, it most certainly won't go up...

Is your judgement based on the blue wall at about 9.5$, which is likely to be fake?
Maybe, I don't know if it's fake or not. Well someone expects to sell about 7000 BTC at 9.55$. With a 5300 daily volume, that could take a while. Now suppose that is fake and it will be taken down, then there will be no resistance. But what if he decides to dump it a current price? It could burn all the way to 8$.
legendary
Activity: 1199
Merit: 1012
If the price moves in the next 2-6 hours, it most certainly won't go up...

Is your judgement based on the blue wall at about 9.5$, which is likely to be fake?
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1005
BombaUcigasa, what did you want to say? Smiley
If the price moves in the next 2-6 hours, it most certainly won't go up...
legendary
Activity: 1199
Merit: 1012
BombaUcigasa, what did you want to say? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1005
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
Top of the page:

Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP
Mid term is looking at weekly / daily charts. TREND DOWN
Short term are all time frames under 60min charts. TREND DOWN
.
hero member
Activity: 809
Merit: 501
Always verify deals with me through my public key!
Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

4 months are you sure?

We are down from the high 8 weeks to the 5.74 $ low, and down 11 weeks to date.

Which leads to a good question, what are the approx time periods for short, medium and long term to a trader?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

4 months are you sure?

We are down from the high 8 weeks to the 5.74 $ low, and down 11 weeks to date.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Funny how your long term is always up. How long is "long term?" All we've been seeing for the past 4 months is down, down, down

4 months are you sure?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP

Summer?  Which hemisphere?
 

I need to think more globally... I mean: In May 2010, bitcoin trading started at bitcoinmarket and in August 2010 on MtGox
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP

Summer?  Which hemisphere?
 
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000

Thanks for the valid question, so let me clarify:

Long term is looking at monthly charts. Starting period summer 2010. TREND UP
Mid term is looking at weekly / daily charts. TREND DOWN
Short term are all time frames under 60min charts. TREND DOWN
.
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