Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 12. (Read 540258 times)

Hi,

I signed up for ActivePro for 1 month trial.
I m kind of disappointed because of lack of updates and found them vague.
If you trade, you will need daily updates but you provide 2 short update and 1 weekly report.

Also your trade suggestions are vague (at least for me).
Here http://xchang.in/xcharts/blog/ this guy was updating daily, free of charge till end of Jan, it was mostly accurate and clear brief aupdates.

And, If customer dont trade and hold for long term, customer will not need your service after 1 moth since he will know one more time AHT at medium/long term.

"bound between 859 $ and 1093 $" from your update
I dont think it is useful info for daily trading point of view, so wide.

and I think you must value data from BTC-e rather than MT-Gox.

regards

Heh.
I saw it all over again, several times, back from 2011 to today. It goes up, it goes down, it rises like crazy, it tanks by more than 80%, it goes sideways. And at every point in time there are people telling "now the tipping point is here!" "Bitcoin won't survive this crash" and "finally we found the long-term stable exchangerate". It never happened, and we are a long way from any of those three to happen. Maybe when the world market is saturated, or Bitcoin2.0 takes over.
It took me years to learn that any point in Bitcoin history I watch is similar to how it was before, and will result in similar stuff just like before.

Holdin' and waiting for the next stormy weather :-)

Ente

You are right.

It is best to think about it in the metaphor of waves:

There are certain times where there is no wind and there only tiny waves. This makes trading largely unprofitable due to the spread and slippage and false signals.

And there are a lot of periods with strong moves where trading can be a stormy paradise.

Good analysis and forecasts follow this principle: Stay neutral in the no-wind times and give clear directions in stormy times.

And: The stable period will soon be over, and subscribers of www.digitalcurrencyresearch.com will be the first to know when we think it's going to happen, and in which direction.

Indeed, and due to this it might seem that sevices like this one are irrelevant / not accurate. Their reports seem accurate & extensive; but if the market is not moving / stable (which might actually be a good thing) there are also no trading opportunities.

Seems that bitcoin has found a stable price level. I believe it will continue for some time. That could be a good thing for businesses using bitcoin.

Thank you for your comments and opinions.  Discussions such as these make us take a good look at what we do, why we do it, and what we can do to improve.  Below are a few comments about the concerns you raise:

-A service like ours exists specifically to cut through the noise and false signals you mention.  TA is an art, not a science, and therefore its effectiveness depends on the skill of the technician.  We think we have some of the most talented analysts in the game and their track record speaks for itself.

-There are 2 different classes of participants in any market: investors and speculators.  Each will have the same goal, capital appreciation, but will achieve the goal in different ways.  The investor is comfortable with sacrificing alpha for convenience and the trader is more concerned with abnormal profits at the expense of leisure/quality of life.  Your strategy works for you, others will approach the market in a way that works for them.  BTW, we think we can provide a benefit to both types, but for different reasons.

-TA is purely the study of psychology, behavior and sentiment as manifested in market price action expressed through a graphical representation known as a chart (see Chapter 1 of John Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets for a great explanation of what TA is and what is attempts to achieve).  This makes it particularly applicable to digital currencies which lack a corporeal quality and cashflow, rendering traditional valuation methodologies virtually impossible.  It is a momentum-driven market, and technicals are good at measuring exactly that.  Also, TA is no different than any other time series analysis you would apply to a dataset in order to glean insights that can provide an advantage in the marketplace.  Sure, nothing works 100% of the time, but anything over 33% success rate is beating the odds in a mathematical sense (market has three directions: up, down, and sideways.  You must choose only one making your statistical odds of success 33.33…%).

-Our reports are not vague, and any losses incurred by unprofitable analysis are quickly mitigated by the frequency of our updates.

lol. Even if there are good reasons for TA, it's so hard to read the signals through the noise that it's almost unusable. We're in an exponential uptrend for years, but a down trend since Dec 1, 2013, and an uptrend since last Friday...   wrong analysis can be explained away and correct analysis is usually so vague it's meaningless.  Ok, we're going to probably have a new ATH. When??  I stay 90% in bitcoin. Price goes up, I sell some. Price goes down, I buy some. Simple as that.

thanks so much for the clarification and feedback.

The track record of third parties holding other people's bitcoins is pretty appaling making trading quite risky business.

Edit:
my point is that trading most likely requires you to have funds on exchanges which require you to trust them and to paraphrase a shared sentiment I believe we need more professional exchanges. Recently having read this for example

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4430052
It's not very encouraging and should be taken into account when deciding to trade.

Otherwise, this Price forecast service is probably one of the few long lasting bitcoin businesses out there which has lived up to their promise and delivered timely alerts for many years now in the most volatile financial product I know of. And that deserves being emphasized.

Huh?  Seems to me that 'buy and hold' is the only logical way to increase the odds of making money in such a market.  I'm up over 100x doing this...and not paying any attention whatsoever to the TA specialists or whatever.

I've no doubt that some people who play the markets have made more money than I, but to me it simply makes and already risky speculation even more so.  Many people who've tried to play the markets have probably come out worse for the wear, and all of them have paid a lot to the exchanges and so on.

Our current promotion is 2 weeks free with any subscription package: newyear2014  Thanks for asking!


As far as the other comments regarding the forecast, we appreciate all feedback, positive or negative.  No forecast will be correct 100% of the time so any suggestions for improvement are always welcome.  That being said, I feel confident that our subscribers are better off following our reports and updates than not.  Trading and investing is not only about opportunity, but also about capital preservation and prudent decision making during uncertain and highly volatile times. 

It is easy to say "I'll buy and hold regardless of market action" but very few can do this is a market that runs and swings like bitcoin does.  We had been calling for a strong rally to new ATH's since August, but we also provided levels along the way to take profit at due to proper risk management practice.  Did we miss a few percent each way?  Probably, but if you would have watched these levels and sold, the market gave you a price to get in back in lower almost every time. 

One more thing about our service.   It is not necessarily a price alerting and/or daytrading alert system.  We try to provide longer term ideas combined with actionable short term recommendations that tend to play out over hours/days/weeks rather than seconds and minutes.  Other resources such as ours, which are usually done by large investment banks and hedge fund managers, are released to clients infrequently, maybe once a month to a couple times a year. We are trying to be as informative and helpful as possible, however know we are putting ourselves in a unique position with such frequent correspondence.

Thank you all again for your input, we look forward to continuing to serve you and improve in every way possible moving forward.


Have a great BITday!

whats the promo code though?

Not since i've subscribed - 3 months.  1 scenario is tiny sample size come on its like me pointing out 1 scenario when you were wrong.

3 months of following your short terms is a small sample also but still larger than 1 example. Going back to my own short term system of trading on news.

Anyway i said what i wanna say.

Had I followed the subscription advice, I would have lost money as well.  I gave it enough time to see that I was better off trading based on news rather than his TA, regardless of what he claims here.  Just my experience.  Your mileage may vary.

Yes, very short term trading requires a lot of experience and skills beyond having a forecast - especially in the volatile bitcoin market. We continue to stress that.
That said, also the short term forecasts have a very high accuracy.

Here is the recent example from Thursday, Jan 10, 2014 - when BTCUSD was 943 $ at MtGox:
We said: "Given this picture, and the fact that the market has held 900 $ level on the last few small selloffs means that the market could continue up to resistance at 1000 $ but it looks unlikely that the momentum and conviction are there to take it up to or past the previous 1093 $ high".
What happened then is that bitcoin prices indeed hit the target of 1,000 $ (intraday 1023 $) and then turned down again. This is a pretty
decent forecast and short term traders could have made at least +57 $ = +6% within less than 48 hours.

But as mentioned many times before, winning in bitcoin and any other market in short term or day trading requires more than an accurate forecast. There is at least an equal weight of proper discipline, experience and money management.

So advice to newbies be very careful on short term.... following the short term reports did lose me BTC holdings over last 3 months.

Luckily im making those back now following my own short term instincts

Sorry i mean long term its going $40k+ $100k+ or dead (or $1-$10 etc, basically dead), i cant see how it does anything else?  (would love to hear theories of how it can stay @ $500 or something for 10 years.)

I can see us going down in price some time next couple month though btw not for sure though who knows BTC is crazy- Im currently 60% all in if that helps & wont ever sell these holdings basically.

Would you care to explain why a bitcoin will hit 40k or even 100k during 2014?

That would require an enormeous amount of fiat going towards BTC.. I have a hard time seeing how we will have a market cap of 40-100x the current.

Yup well i wont be following any short term guides unless there are changes thats for sure.

In very simple terms i see it as... good news means short term up 70% of the time, bad news means short term down 70% of the time, its simple as that unless we off the back of a previous rally or dip.  Previous rally but then with fresh good news = price likely holds short term.  Previous dip with bad news may mean we dont go lower short term.  < even that formula will beat buy & hold imo.

Medium/long term maybe the reports can assist i will think about it but probably only occasionally subscribe once every 6 months,   This shit is going $40k+ $100k+ or zero i dont see any other option.

Maybe you shouldn't trade short term is such a small and volatile market?  Any market approaches a random walk on a small enough time scale.  It is only on the larger time scales that reliable patterns emerge.