Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 134. (Read 540250 times)

there goes the Kuwaiti dinar  

Jesus christ what was that?  

I apparently put a sell order at 3.4658 last night thinking that was about where the spike would go if it went above 3. Let's find out just how far off I was.

He just will sell at $5 or higher.

some dude just bought everything up to $4.15 i think, he didnt read the technical analysis obviously 

Keep up the great work! Donated 5btc

One quick question, when do we know if it has clearly broken out of the price channel?  If we keep in this price channel the market really cannot move to $5 till July...

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Yes, it is not a bubble if bitcoin were embarassingly undervalued anywhere below USD$XXX ... fill in any number you want here to quantify the demand for a crypto-currency of the bitcoin flavour.

EDIT: quantifying the monetisation of virtual commodity has no historical precedence, charts out the window, we're off to la la land ...

Yes, I think it will go to $3, $4, $5, etc. And it is not a bubble. The exchange rate just goes to its real place.

Looks like we are about to see a rally above $3 very soon. Volume at the $2.95 and $3 levels are being bought up VERY quickly.

We still have yet to open the black box and see if the cat is alive.

It is simultaneously a bubble, and not a bubble. Only once we observe it (from the future) will we know for sure...

So does that mean it's a bubble now?  It broke the channel to the upside.

Let hope that the bitcoin economy also grows at the same rate.

It isnt a bubble, it is just a system that is growing at an exponetial rate, at some point it will saturate and eventually retrace a bit. Prices as shown here http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png are moving inside an exponential channel, only above it you might consider it a price bubble, not now at 2-2.5 $/BTC.

To me it looks more like a bohrble.

Extension of the log Price Channel:

http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png

I would be very surprised if this happened at this point since the demand is out pacing supply by a wide margin.  People have clearly decided that bitcoins have value (for a number of reasons) and are clamoring to get them.  Napster failed because it was centralized and therefore easy to attack.  Bitcoin like Bittorrent is decentralized and very difficult to attack.  I personally believe the genie is out of the bottle here and nothing short of a major technical flaw (which I am unqualified to judge) will derail this train.  The store of value will be proven over time and the other qualities that make it useful as money out compete any other form I can think of.   

International transactions are the primary application which got me excited about BitCoin months ago--in order for BitCoin to actually take off in that space it will need some kind of trust system, a more stable valuation (achievable by the sale of more advanced products like futures), physical/virtual/financial products denominated in bitcoins that people in the relevant countries want to buy, and/or some sort of framework/organisation for bitcoin exchangers.  The window for this is not universal and magical.  If it takes too long to materialise, the ongoing introduction of bitcoins from mining will lower the value before it does.  There are also (less likely) circumstances in which it doesn't materialise at all.

Consider the case of Napster--it launched the peer to peer revolution but failed itself.  Bitcoin is much more well-designed than Napster, but I personally think it could be at least relegated to the sidelines if an existing government announced 1:1 backed fiatcoin prior to it becoming well-established, for example.  Predicting the future is always something that ought to be done with a little bit of humility.

The question of whether trading of bitcoins alone is an economic surge is empirically simple:  wait.  If BitCoin has truly taken hold as a reliable store of value, then the valuation of bitcoins will not drop with continued mining.  Personally I think you only have to look at what happened after parity the first time to see that BitCoins aren't quite there yet, but I may be wrong.  We shall wait and see!  Either way, I'll be happy since my goal is the success of bitcoin.  Maybe my cautiousness will prove valuable to the market as I re-buy the coins I'm selling at current prices, or maybe BitCoin will continue to surge forward with my bank account thinner than it would have been and I'll be happy nonetheless to see it fly.  Slowing the rise slightly has a very good cost/benefit analysis for my set of goals .

Sometimes a spoon is just a spoon.