Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 131.

allinvain

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Quote from: LMGTFY on May 05, 2011, 08:51:31 AM

Quote from: Current-C on May 04, 2011, 10:56:45 PM

Anyone else wondering when we're gonna break out of this trading range? To the upside? Downside? I'd like to see a pullback to at least 2.5 . . .

My guess - and I stress that this is purely a guess, with no analysis put into it at all - is that it'll be to the downside, but not by much.

My thinking is that we'll see something similar to what happened after the last meteoric rise (to $1.10!) back in January - there'll be a slow, gradual decline over several weeks, while we all adjust to the new price and difficulty climate, then price will start to climb again.

The basis for this theory is (a) magic - it's happened once, it's bound to happen again, right? Right?! (b) luck - I'd really like price to keep climbing. I'm holding BTC and no USD right now. Generally when I'm in this position price falls or stagnates for protracted periods... :-)

So far it looks like price is stuck in a range. C'mon $4 ...we can do it

allinvain

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Quote from: Alex Beckenham on May 05, 2011, 06:38:00 AM

Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 05:10:36 AM

I hope in the future the bitcoin client will allow you to specify where the wallet.dat is located so I can load it from a secure jump drive (one of those "secure" ones - you know the ones that self destruct if tampered).

The future is here today!

Just use the -datadir switch.

bitcoin -datadir=h:\data

touche!

I shall give that a go. What I had in mind though was a gui option..basically you'd tell it to "load" a specific wallet file manually when you launch the client, and it should also prevent the client from creating a fresh wallet.dat file if a specific flag is set in options.

Thanks!

LMGTFY

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Quote from: Current-C on May 04, 2011, 10:56:45 PM

Anyone else wondering when we're gonna break out of this trading range? To the upside? Downside? I'd like to see a pullback to at least 2.5 . . .

My guess - and I stress that this is purely a guess, with no analysis put into it at all - is that it'll be to the downside, but not by much.

My thinking is that we'll see something similar to what happened after the last meteoric rise (to $1.10!) back in January - there'll be a slow, gradual decline over several weeks, while we all adjust to the new price and difficulty climate, then price will start to climb again.

The basis for this theory is (a) magic - it's happened once, it's bound to happen again, right? Right?! (b) luck - I'd really like price to keep climbing. I'm holding BTC and no USD right now. Generally when I'm in this position price falls or stagnates for protracted periods... :-)

Alex Beckenham

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Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 05:10:36 AM

I hope in the future the bitcoin client will allow you to specify where the wallet.dat is located so I can load it from a secure jump drive (one of those "secure" ones - you know the ones that self destruct if tampered).

The future is here today!

Just use the -datadir switch.

bitcoin -datadir=h:\data

allinvain

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1083

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on May 05, 2011, 05:04:11 AM

Quote

But think about it this way, even if you have say BTC 1000 if the exchange rate went up to 100 you'd have 100,000 BTC!!!

Ah no, you'd still have BTC 1000 but they would be worth USD100,000.

Better make sure you don't get hacked or leave an old copy of your wallet lying around in memory somewhere ....

Ooops..my bad, I just noticed that error. Heheh..it's 6 in the morning here and I was half asleep when I posted that, so perhaps I can get some sympathy Tongue

.

Yeah definitely. I'm definitely paranoid as it is right now..imagine me at 100 BTC/USD exchange rate. I'd build a Faraday cage around my house to prevent the evil bitcoin stealing rays from getting through.

I hope in the future the bitcoin client will allow you to specify where the wallet.dat is located so I can load it from a secure jump drive (one of those "secure" ones - you know the ones that self destruct if tampered).

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote

But think about it this way, even if you have say BTC 1000 if the exchange rate went up to 100 you'd have 100,000 BTC!!!

Ah no, you'd still have BTC 1000 but they would be worth USD100,000.

Better make sure you don't get hacked or leave an old copy of your wallet lying around in memory somewhere ....

allinvain

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Quote from: proudhon on May 05, 2011, 03:52:28 AM

Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 03:41:15 AM

Quote from: proudhon on May 05, 2011, 03:30:48 AM

Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 03:15:54 AM

Quote from: nster on May 04, 2011, 11:03:18 PM

I'd like to see a rise to 4.50$ after next difficulty, stabilize, then a drop around the 2.50$ range

I'd like to see it rise to $10 after next difficulty, stabilize, then a rise around the 100$ range. Grin

Based on an average 12% increase in the exchange rate every difficulty (which, BTW, I actually think is overly optimistic by quite a lot) we'll reach $10 sometime in August and $100 sometime in March 2012.

Woohoo!!!

Now I can finally buy that new home I always wanted. Honestly though, if the exchange rate reached $100 I'd be shittin my pants with joy!

I take it you have a lot of bitcoin.

Not really a "lot" - a lot is a relative term anyways (what would you consider to be "a lot"?) . I probably have more than the average user I guess since I got into bitcoins early on. Speaking of which, is there a way to find out what the average bitcoin holdings size is without asking people? (as in analyzing somehow the blockchain).

But think about it this way, even if you have say BTC 1000 if the exchange rate went up to 100 you'd have $100,000!!! That's enough for a serious downpayment on a home, or a brand new car and a ton of fancy gear/toys

I'd hope that by the time this happens the bitcoin economy would have grown into this valuation.

proudhon

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Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 03:41:15 AM

Quote from: proudhon on May 05, 2011, 03:30:48 AM

Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 03:15:54 AM

Quote from: nster on May 04, 2011, 11:03:18 PM

I'd like to see a rise to 4.50$ after next difficulty, stabilize, then a drop around the 2.50$ range

I'd like to see it rise to $10 after next difficulty, stabilize, then a rise around the 100$ range. Grin

Based on an average 12% increase in the exchange rate every difficulty (which, BTW, I actually think is overly optimistic by quite a lot) we'll reach $10 sometime in August and $100 sometime in March 2012.

Woohoo!!!

Now I can finally buy that new home I always wanted. Honestly though, if the exchange rate reached $100 I'd be shittin my pants with joy!

I take it you have a lot of bitcoin.

allinvain

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1083

Quote from: proudhon on May 05, 2011, 03:30:48 AM

Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 03:15:54 AM

Quote from: nster on May 04, 2011, 11:03:18 PM

I'd like to see a rise to 4.50$ after next difficulty, stabilize, then a drop around the 2.50$ range

I'd like to see it rise to $10 after next difficulty, stabilize, then a rise around the 100$ range. Grin

Based on an average 12% increase in the exchange rate every difficulty (which, BTW, I actually think is overly optimistic by quite a lot) we'll reach $10 sometime in August and $100 sometime in March 2012.

Woohoo!!!

Now I can finally buy that new home I always wanted. Honestly though, if the exchange rate reached $100 I'd be shittin my pants with joy!

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: allinvain on May 05, 2011, 03:15:54 AM

Quote from: nster on May 04, 2011, 11:03:18 PM

I'd like to see a rise to 4.50$ after next difficulty, stabilize, then a drop around the 2.50$ range

I'd like to see it rise to $10 after next difficulty, stabilize, then a rise around the 100$ range. Grin

Based on an average 12% increase in the exchange rate every difficulty (which, BTW, I actually think is overly optimistic by quite a lot) we'll reach $10 sometime in August and $100 sometime in March 2012.

allinvain

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1083

Quote from: nster on May 04, 2011, 11:03:18 PM

I'd like to see a rise to 4.50$ after next difficulty, stabilize, then a drop around the 2.50$ range

I'd like to see it rise to $10 after next difficulty, stabilize, then a rise around the 100$ range. Grin

FooDSt4mP

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Quote from: nster on May 04, 2011, 11:03:18 PM

I'd like to see a rise to 4.50$ after next difficulty, stabilize, then a drop around the 2.50$ range

Perhaps... It is holding above the previous log channel for now. However, volume is way down, so it really depends on what happens once it picks back up. People are slow to act after the attack. But uncertainty is ok with me. I've a few BTC today narrowing the spread Wink